Hello, MLB offseason, it’s good to see you.
So, last year at this time Chicago Cubs fans were celebrating a dream come true, as the Cubs finally won a World Series and all was right with the world. That offseason was a blur and sure the Cubs made a splash by trading Jorge Soler for Wade Davis and Dexter Fowler left in free agency, but the big time rumors weren’t flying around. I expect that to change this time around. Kind of like the 2015 offseason.
We’ve already discussed the hypothetical/rumor of a Jason Heyward trade to the San Francisco Giants, but as free agency begins let’s get into some predictions. This one, Cubs fans are going to hate.
So, MLB Trade Rumors, great website that keeps up with all the latest news and obviously rumors, does an annual list of the top-50 free agents, predicts the contracts for those free agents and where they will sign.
The very first prediction is for starting pitcher Yu Darvish.
Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Jason Martinez came up with the following.
1. Yu Darvish – Cubs. Six years, $160MM.
The 31-year-old righty should have no problem setting a new free agent record for a Tommy John survivor, passing Jordan Zimmermann’s five-year, $110MM deal. Seven-year contracts have historically been reserved for slightly younger pitchers without elbow surgery on their resume, so we’re expecting six years for Darvish. Free agent starters have exceeded a $25MM salary four different times, and we’re projecting Darvish to become the fifth. If the Dodgers decide to move on, the Cubs, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Astros, and Twins could be potential suitors. There’s a shortage of obvious big-market players here, allowing for dark horses to enter the mix.
Here’s the thing, as the article mentions, if all you consider is his World Series starts then you’re out of your mind. A two-start sample size is going to make you hate him all of a sudden? Please. However, that doesn’t mean the Cubs should be going out there spending another $160 million on a 31-year-old pitcher who’s had Tommy John Surgery.
More importantly, six years? Hell no. Let somebody else make that big commitment on Darvish. Plus, the prediction on Jake Arrieta, at least the contract figures, makes a lot more sense for the Cubs.
Here’s what MLBTR had for Arrieta.
4. Jake Arrieta – Brewers. Four years, $100MM. A July 2013 trade from the Orioles to the Cubs rebooted Arrieta’s career, which peaked with the NL Cy Young Award in 2015. Arrieta’s star has dimmed since then, as he’s become more prone to walks, home runs, and hits and stopped pitching deep into games. He still provided value to the 2017 Cubs, with 30 starts of 3.53 ERA ball. Though he turns 32 in March, Arrieta’s case for a long-term deal is boosted by excellent physical conditioning. We expect him to come out looking for a six-year deal, but land at four or five. Arrieta appears likely to move on from the Cubs, with whom he was unable to agree to an extension in the past few years. However, it’s possible Arrieta could circle back to the Cubs later in the offseason if his market disappoints. We don’t see a clear favorite to sign him, so we’ve chosen a dark horse pick in the Brewers. The Cardinals, Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Phillies, Yankees, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Twins, and Dodgers could be in the mix depending on the price
Arrieta is going to be 32-years-old next year, and honestly four-years, at $100 million isn’t that bad. I’d prefer a shorter deal, three years at the most, with the average amount not really mattering before most of the young Cubs players get to free agency. And as the blurb mentions, he could easily come back to the Cubs if the market dies down. We’ve seen that happen before with Dexter Fowler after 2015.
Plus, Arrieta has expressed interest in coming back to the Cubs and Theo Epstein has said the Cubs would love to get him back. At the end of the day, money talks and this is going to be Arrieta’s last chance to get a big deal, so expect him to go for the money and you can’t really blame him for that.
The other big Cubs free agent is closer Wade Davis, and this contract prediction is also something I could see the Cubs offering him.
8. Wade Davis – Astros. Four years, $60MM.
If the Cubs look elsewhere, the Astros, Cardinals, Rangers, Nationals, Twins, Braves, and Rockies could be fits. Davis is another slam-dunk recipient of the qualifying offer and will reject in search of a long-term deal.
I don’t think the Cubs look elsewhere and at four years for $60 million that should be a slam dunk to get Davis back.
There are two other predictions for relievers signing with the Cubs and I like both pitchers. They have Addison Reed and Jake McGee at four years, $36 million and three years, $18 million, respectively.
If you remember back to the 2015 offseason, there was a lot of trade talk between the Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays and one of the names that always popped up was McGee. He’s 31-years-old, has a career 3.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 362.2 innings. In 2017, with the Colorado Rockies, McGee pitches 57.1 innings, recording a 3.61 ERA and a 2.93 FIP.
Get him out of Coors Field and I like it.
Addison Reed is 28-years-old, and has had ERAs of 3.38, 1.97 and 2.84 in the last three years. Love me some Addison Reed. I was actually hoping the Cubs would make a trade for him in 2017, when the New York Mets were starting their fire sale.
Anyway, you can check out the rest of the list here to get your juices flowing. GM meetings coming up, qualifying offers are being made and declined. The offseason is here and it should be fun.
