The Chicago Bears won’t tell anybody who they plan to pick with the 25th selection this month. Part of that is because they don’t want people to know who they like. Another part is that they have no idea who will be available. Draft insiders haven’t gotten much information on who they’re even meeting with, let alone who they’re interested in. General manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson deserve credit for keeping their intentions locked down from the public eye. So how do we know what they’ll do?

In these situations, math could be of help. The ESPN analytics team released its annual Draft Day Predictor ahead of April 23rd. It is meant to offer the mathematical odds for each prospect in the class and where they are most likely to be selected.

“The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.”

This created an interesting question. Which players, if any, are favored to go 25th overall to Chicago? The data charts popped out two names who weren’t just favorites, but heavy favorites to go at that spot: Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods and Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.

Both players make sense for the Chicago Bears.

One of the big issues for them last season was interior pass rush. It was too inconsistent and lacked explosiveness. That is something Woods might bring to the table. He has a great athletic profile and the ideal mix of upper-body strength and lower-body burst. The big concern with him is his sparse production. He never had a true standout season at Clemson, leading many to wonder why. This uncertainty is why there is significant hesitation about taking him early in the draft. Maybe the Bears, with their strong coaching staff, might be willing to take the risk.

McNeil-Warren, on the other hand, is a classic throwback. He’s a big, strong safety with significant hitting power, leaving offensive players wary of crossing the middle. He is athletic enough to make plays in coverage and might be the most gifted forced fumble merchant since Charles Tillman. A creative defensive coordinator can make great use of his versatility. The Chicago Bears do have a starting spot open alongside Coby Bryant. He might be an ideal fit for the new vision for this team.

The Bears won’t reach at positions of need.

They’ve made this clear in the draft last year. Tight end and wide receiver were not at the top of their needs list in 2025, but they took them anyway. It worked out pretty well. There is another layer to this projection. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently released his updated big board for this 2026 class. Keep in mind, it’s fed by both his tape evaluation and what he’s hearing around the NFL. McNeil-Warren is ranked 16th. Woods is ranked 37th. So if both are on the board, the decision seems pretty obvious.

Then again, there is always the chance that neither player is available. Then you’re looking at guys like Caleb Lomu, Blaker Miller, and Keldric Faulk. The truth is, most of the options when the Chicago Bears go on the clock will have questions about them. They’d go higher if they didn’t. The trick Poles and Johnson will be pinpointing the one guy whose flaws they can live with, or they think are incorrect or overblown.

The Chicago Bears are in a rare position: they are the last team in the NFC North to pick in the 1st round this year. It will start with the Minnesota Vikings, then the Detroit Lions, and finally the Green Bay. It’s been a long time since that happened. General manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson must hope that their rivals don’t hit any home runs with those picks and make life harder moving forward. However, it won’t be just about that. Whichever players those other teams pick will have a significant impact on who falls to the Bears at #25.

That is where the latest update regarding the Lions is so interesting. Tony Pauline is one of the best draft insiders on the circuit these days. He had some new information that feels pertinent to the 1st round for Chicago. From what he’s hearing, Detroit is zeroed in on Alabama tackle Kadyn Proctor. They don’t feel good before their left tackle options after releasing Taylor Decker. Proctor is the kind of bruising blocker they feel is perfect for their run-heavy attack as they try to regain an identity they lost last season.

“The Detroit Lions have a hole at left tackle, and sources believe they’ve zeroed in on Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor…

…Those I’ve spoken with believe the latest Proctor ends up in the draft is the 17th pick, presently owned by the Detroit Lions. They need a left tackle after releasing Taylor Decker, and Proctor gives them an option, along with Penei Sewell, the 2021 first-round pick who was a star at Oregon on the blind side before moving to right tackle after the Lions drafted him in 2021. More than anything, the Lions want to run the ball and hope to extend Jahmyr Gibbs before the season starts. They believe the combo of Sewell and Proctor would be a dominant run-blocking duo.”

The Detroit Lions going that route is good for the Bears.

There are two reasons for this. We’ll start with the practical. For months, almost every draft expert believed the Lions would target an edge rusher. They lost Al-Quadin Muhammad to free agency and replaced him with D.J. Wonnum and Payton Turner. Not exactly an upgrade. They need somebody who can rush across from Aidan Hutchinson. Taking a top rusher at the 17th pick would make sense. However, if they’re focused on a left tackle, that significantly improves the odds of one of the better edge rushers falling to the Bears at #25.

As of now, projections have around five edge rushers going in the top 24 picks. However, removing the Lions from that equation would improve the odds of that number dropping to four or even three. Right now, most would agree the New York Jets (#2, #16), Tennessee Titans (#4), Kansas City Chiefs (#9), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#15), Detroit Lions (#17), and Philadelphia Eagles (#23) are believed to view edge rusher as a need in some capacity.

Tampa signed Muhammad as a free agent. Philadelphia signed Arnold Ebiketie. New York signed Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enigbare. That could dissuade them from attacking the position early, leaving Tennessee and Kansas City as the bigger threats to watch. Obviously, someone unexpected could still draft one, but Detroit leaning away from it is still a break.

Targeting Proctor is a risk in itself.

Talent-wise, the Alabama standout has a rare mix of size, power, and mobility. He has flashes of dominance on his tape. It is easy to fall in love with what he can be. The problem is he never did it consistently. Not only are there concerns about his weight (350+ lbs), but league scouts also have serious misgivings about his passion for the game. Bob McGinn of Go Long found this out recently. They see the talent, as well as somebody not interested in doing the extra work.

“I didn’t like Evan Neal and this guy is exactly the same,” a second scout said. “I wanted to like him, too. He has a little bit of movement for being so big. But the game against Auburn, he’s just standing around watching. He just teases you and, ultimately, disappoints. Big, good-looking dude but not physical, not a lot of grit. Stands around and watches.”

This would be doubly beneficial to the Bears. Not only would the Lions add a player who may ultimately prove to be a disappointment, but it’ll also ensure Chicago, which does need a left tackle, won’t have to wrestle with the decision to draft him were he to fall to the 25th pick. Sure, there is always a chance Proctor overcomes those questions to achieve his full potential. Based on what most around the league believe, they wouldn’t put money on it.

The Chicago Bears have been slogging their way toward a new stadium, like the Allies during the Battle of the Somme. For every step they take, it feels like they suffer multiple setbacks. Remember, this saga began in 2021 when they placed a bid on the Arlington Park property. In the five years since then, the only thing they’ve managed to accomplish is securing ownership of it and working out property tax issues with Arlington Heights. Everything else has been one ongoing headache. All the while, team president Kevin Warren, the man running this show, has been hesitant to provide anything close to a hard deadline on when a decision will be made.

That finally changed on Wednesday at the NFL owners meetings in Arizona. The Bears have finally reached a point where they seem to have options. Illinois’ state legislature is willing to put the PILOT bill, which would provide the property tax clarity the team needs to start building, on the floor for a vote. On the flip side, the state of Indiana has prepared all the necessary legislation and a prime construction site in Hammond. All the Bears need to do is make a decision. Warren believes the date is almost at hand. Courtney Cronin of ESPN pinpointed it.

“We’re in an excellent position,” Warren said Wednesday at the NFL’s league meetings. “I recently said that the target is to make sure that we have a decision made by springtime here soon. Late spring, early summer would be that from a target.”

The Bears are waiting to see if the PILOT bill passes during the Illinois general assembly’s spring session, which ends on May 31. State lawmakers introduced the proposed legislation, which would freeze property tax assessments on the sites of “megaprojects” and allow developers to negotiate a payment-in-lieu-of-taxes (PILOT) with local governments.

Kevin Warren likely always knew it’d come to this.

Once it became clear that the government wouldn’t reach a decision last October during its fall session, the Bears had a decision to make. Do they go to Indiana immediately, or wait for the spring session, which runs from March through the end of May? After discussions with Governor J.B. Pritzker, it was felt that waiting could produce the results Warren and the McCaskeys hoped for. The family has never wanted to leave Illinois. They merely sought reasonable options on infrastructure and property taxes.

However, there has been persistent resistance in Springfield on this issue. Some of it is people not wanting the Bears to leave Chicago, preferring they stay in the city. Others aren’t eager to give a billion-dollar corporation tax breaks when they should be focused on helping people who actually need it. That has made getting the necessary votes difficult. Two months remain until the legislature adjourns for the summer. If they can’t reach a decision by then, the Bears sound more than comfortable with starting the move to Hammond.

Patience is wearing thin at Halas Hall.

Kevin Warren has been in charge since 2022 and hasn’t had much to show for it in Chicago. He was hired primarily to close the stadium deal, having earned experience in a similar venture with Minnesota. Yet for four years, he hasn’t gained much ground. It wasn’t until he brought Indiana into the situation that Illinois finally started having serious discussions. Even now, though, they are dragging their feet, unable to get over the last hurdle despite what many experts agree is a pretty solid deal for the state.

They’ve been testing the limits of the Bears’ patience for the past several months. If they decide to push their luck by not holding a vote in May, that will be the breaking point. The McCaskeys don’t sound hesitant about going to Indiana. They cited the Giants’ move to New Jersey in 1976. There was an adjustment period, but fans eventually grew to accept it. They believe it will be the same for Bears fans, and they’re probably right.

The NFL made its ruling at the start of the new league year. Despite significant evidence showing Ian Cunningham was the primary football decision-maker for the Atlanta Falcons, the Chicago Bears would not receive two compensatory draft picks per the Rooney Rule. It was a baffling decision. Everybody involved in the situation believes the Bears were entitled to compensation. Even the national media couldn’t understand the NFL’s stubbornness regarding such a technicality. It felt like they were trying to avoid admitting they were wrong and didn’t mind screwing the Bears in the process. One would think that would be the end of it, right? Not if George McCaskey has anything to say about it.

The team chairman and owner has never been known for being overly meddlesome in league affairs. That said, he can be pretty active when he feels the cause is worthy. This is one of those cases. McCaskey, along with team president Kevin Warre and general manager Ryan Poles, flew to New York for a meeting with commissioner Roger Goodell to reinforce their appeal over the comp picks. It is hoped that this added pressure from an actual owner might sway the decision.

George McCaskey is in uncharted territory.

The NFL has made adjustments to compensatory picks before, but never this close to the draft. As of now, the closest it has happened is 44 days before opening night. There are only 23 days now until the 2026 draft begins. Chicago would shatter that record if they somehow convinced the NFL to reverse its decision. Knowing how the league has operated for years, it is hard to imagine it will be willing to rock the boat that much. Then again, they are the ones who created this mess with the funky language in the Rooney Rule. They are duty-bound to clean it up.

Making this matter even messier is an ongoing dispute with Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, who is attacking the Rooney Rule. He states it constitutes blatant race and sex discrimination and not hiring based on merit. Most see it as the highly conservative state’s way of further curbing diversity hiring policies in the state. If Goodell were to admit the NFL made a mistake with the Bears’ decision, it wouldn’t be a great look. That makes it more difficult to get it overturned.

McCaskey is doing the right thing.

What has happened to his franchise is an injustice. They followed the spirit of the Rooney Rule, helping Cunningham elevate his profile to a point where he was hired to run his own NFL franchise. According to the rule, any minority hire in that situation earns his former team two 3rd round compensatory picks. Yet the NFL is holding out because the Falcons chose to give Matt Ryan the title of director of football operations, even though he was never going to actually run the scouting operation and pick players.

The league basically looked at his title and didn’t bother gathering any further information. He’s the primary football guy, so no picks for you. George McCaskey may not be the sharpest owner around, but he knows an injustice when he sees one. His presence in the appeal process might give Goodell pause on the matter since this isn’t something McCaskey does often. Maybe it’s a losing effort, but it wasn’t a fight the Bears were ready to abandon. They were cheated and intend to make their displeasure known.

One of the things that is so difficult to find in head coaches across any sport is self-reflection. These guys reached the top of their professions by operating a certain way. Many of them can’t imagine that way can be wrong and require changes. It’s the players or the front office that are wrong. However, there are a select few willing to look inward and ask a simple question: Was I, in some way, the problem? Head coach Ben Johnson admitted that was the case when he took time to look back on the 2025 season.

Nobody will ever dispute that last year was a success. Taking a 5-12 team to 11-6, winning the division, and winning a playoff game in your first season is something no other Chicago Bears head coach has ever done. Much of that was thanks to Johnson’s incredible work at boosting the offense into the top 10. However, he admitted at the owners meetings in Arizona that he didn’t devote enough time to helping the defense, both before and during the season. That is something he is already in the process of rectifying.

Johnson said he spent so much time installing a new offense and teaching the scheme that it drew his attention away from defense and special teams.

“When I watch the self-scout, there’s multiple cut-ups that I’m not proud of,” he said. “I take that personally and (it) makes me feel like I should have done a better job, either coaching the coaches or coaching the players, or spending just a little bit more time making sure that what we were doing was the right thing that particular week.

“And so there’s a lot of that going on. But the time management portion of it, I think I can tweak a little bit and help us out.”

This offseason, he has split his time between offense and defense and has attended nearly every defensive staff meeting, an experience he found “eye-opening.”

Ben Johnson feels he didn’t do enough to help Dennis Allen.

That isn’t an indictment of the Bears’ defensive coordinator. He did a tremendous job under brutal circumstances, mostly a rash of injuries to several starters. The problems lay in the team’s efforts to upgrade the unit last spring and the weekly preparation, which often led to some ugly performances. It’s the head coach’s job to help in both of those areas. Johnson’s admission actually explains a lot about how the 2025 offseason unfolded. It never felt like the Bears were as sharp about acquiring defensive players as they were about acquiring offensive players.

Odeyingbo was a major disappointment even before his Achilles injury. Jarrett played better down the stretch after a knee injury had hobbled him. Turner wasn’t overly productive before tearing his ACL. Hyppolite didn’t accomplish much in his limited opportunities, and Frazier didn’t participate in any team activities at all. Only Wright came through as a great signing with five interceptions and a Pro Bowl nod. That was due more to blind luck and great coaching from Allen and Al Harris than great scouting.

Johnson’s influence may already be in action.

We know for a fact that the head coach had his fingerprints all over the team’s offensive acquisitions last year. Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, Ozzy Trapilo, and Kyle Monangai were all thanks to his direct collaboration with general manager Ryan Poles. From the way he spoke on Tuesday, it sounds like he’s been far more involved in defensive additions compared to last year, and you can actually see the shift based on the Bears’ work in free agency.

Additions like safety Coby Bryant and linebacker Devin Bush felt far more deliberate and smart compared to last year’s sloppy big swings. Both came at reasonable prices and fit the vision Johnson and Allen want for that defense. This doesn’t even include defensive tackle Neville Gallimore, who is an underrated addition to their rotation. If this is a taste of things to come, it bodes well for the Bears’ plans for the upcoming NFL draft. We all know the team will focus heavily on defense, but it feels like Johnson is putting his sharp mind and attention to detail into that side of the ball far more than he did last year.

Going into the playoffs, it was hard not to feel optimistic about the Chicago Bears‘ future. Colston Loveland was an emerging star. Luther Burden was ascending rapidly. Kyle Monangai had carved out a productive role in the backfield. Yet the most exciting development was Ozzy Trapilo, who’d overcome a slow start in training camp to lock down the left tackle position. Then the wild card game against Green Bay happened. Towards the end of what was one of the greatest comebacks in franchise history, Trapilo was spotted limping off the field. He did not return

News came out later that the rookie had suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee. It was a devastating conclusion to an exciting year. The prognosis made it even worse. Expectations are that Trapilo will miss at least most of the 2026 season, and perhaps all of it. That speaks to the extent of the damage. Patellar injuries are some of the worst a player can suffer. However, it might be even worse than we realize. Jeff Hughes of Sports Mockery has reached out to his sources, trying to get information about the former 2nd-round pick’s status.

The responses are not encouraging.

This Ozzy Trapilo update explains a lot.

For one, the Bears haven’t provided a definitive update on his progress. All general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson have said is that it will take time for him to return. Both seem braced for the likelihood he will miss this season. The fact that they still might not know the true extent of the damage suggests the injury was even worse than feared. If that is the case, it might be time to start questioning how much of a future Trapilo has. Severe knee injuries are bad for any position in football, but are especially devastating for players who carry so much weight.

LeCharles Bentley was a Pro Bowl center for the New Orleans Saints in the mid-2000s. Many felt he was destined to become one of the best of that era at his position. Then, late in the 2006 season, he tore his patella. He never set foot on an NFL field again after that. You also had Victor Cruz, a genuine superstar for the New York Giants who’d led the way to a Super Bowl in 2011. Three years later, he tore his patella six games into the season. He only played one more year after that and retired before his 31st birthday.

You cannot downplay the significance of this injury.

The Bears already seem poised to pivot at left tackle.

Poles was spotted at the Alabama and Arizona State pro days last week. Both featured prominent offensive tackle prospects expected to go late in the 1st round. That felt like a glaring signal that the team is very serious about possibly taking a left tackle high in this draft. Initially, the return of Braxton Jones and the signing of Jedrick Wills felt like they were content to go with a temporary stopgap until Ozzy Trapilo could return late in the season or next year. Yet the longer this goes on, the less optimistic the Bears seem to become.

If the prognosis is that bad, then the organization is doing the right thing by changing course. The last thing they should do is sit around and hold out hope that Trapilo somehow fully recovers. That would be irresponsible. Injuries happen in the NFL. It is the nature of the game. We saw what happened with the Bears when they kept waiting for Kevin White to come around. He never did, and it stunted the entire offense’s growth. Johnson has no intention of letting that happen, even though he may like Trapilo. Nothing is promised in this league.