The final run. The home stretch. The inevitable twilight. We are now in Week 15 of the extremely extraordinary 2020 NFL season, and it’s been a wild ride. We have seen many ups and downs this season, with cancellations and postponements abound and the spread of COVID-19 ravaging the way we live our lives. But we made it to the final weeks, and we should cherish the time we have remaining in a season we will remember for the rest of our lives. Betting has been even more difficult during this pandemic, as we really don’t know who could be in or out of the lineups until just before kickoff. However, that has not stopped us from making a ton of cash this year. Last week, we went 2-2 on our ATS picks. The Packers and Chiefs didn’t cover, but the Titans and Chargers did. Our four-team teaser with these teams hit though, with GB -1.5, KC -1.5, TEN -1.5, LAC +8.5. This was a big-time win, and today we are giving out what we hope are more winners. DraftKings wants you to be a winner too, and they are offering a great deal right now for new customers that sign-up with a DraftKings account.
NFL Week 15 Best Bets
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Spread: GB -8.5, CAR +8.5
Total: 52
Most people will look at this matchup and immediately bet the Packers at home against a weak Carolina team that just lost to the Denver Broncos. However, this is a very large number against a Panthers squad that can be very sticky in most of their games. In games against teams like the Saints and Chiefs where they are overmatched, out-talented, and out-gunned, they like to shrink the number of possessions in the game with long, time-consuming drives. Against the Saints, who were the much better team in that game, Carolina covered and each team had only six possessions the entire game. Green Bay also likes to have long drives on offense and is extremely productive doing so. I think this is going to be a higher scoring game, but one where each team doesn’t have many possessions and scores on all the ones they do. Green Bay is also notorious for getting a big lead and letting up a huge number of garbage time points. The last two weeks, they gave up a ton of yards to Mitch Trubisky and the Bears in a blowout and the Detroit Lions also ended up covering the spread with Chase Daniel at QB. Carolina has a chance to win this game if they can get some stops and milk lots of clock, but I think anything over +7 is valuable here, and teased up to +14.5 is a great bet to make.
Official Play: CAR +8.5, teased to +14.5
Seattle Seahawks (9-4) at Washington Football Team (6-7)
Spread: SEA -5.5, WAS +5.5
Total: 43.5
With Alex Smith out for this game and Dwayne Haskins in, I don’t see how anyone could bet the Football Team here. Haskins was so terrible and the organization had so little faith in his abilities, he was demoted to third-string behind Smith and Kyle Allen. Running back Antonio Gibson is also still dealing with an injury for Washington, and we don’t know if he will suit-up for the WFT. There are just so many uncertainties with the Football Team right now, and Seattle is the much better team anyway. They just had a get-right game against the woeful Jets in which they put up 40 points while playing their best defensive performance of the season. Against Haskins, this could be a field day for Seattle defenders. Anything -6 or below I think is a good bet, but I love teasing the Seahawks down to -0.5 or -1.5 so they just have to win the game. I don’t see any scenario where Haskins wins this football game for the Football Team, so give me the ‘Hawks.
Official Play: SEA -5.5, teased to -0.5
Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) at New Orleans Saints (10-3)
Spread: KC -3.5, NO +3.5
Total: 52.5
This is a potential Super Bowl matchup that we could see in a few months’ time. Drew Brees makes his return to the field, which I thought was incredibly improbable considering his injury. First things first, the Saints clearly have the better defense in this game. Yes, Jalen Hurts was able to run on them and get yards, but statistically, they have been great most of the season and have a lot of great players on that side of the ball. Kansas City has been able to score a lot of points, but defensively they have been extremely lackluster at best the last month or so. This isn’t a question of if the Chiefs are better, but by how much so. In the Superdome, I don’t see how the Chiefs can be favored by more than a field goal. I like the Saints at anything above +3, and it makes for a great teaser to bring them up to +10.5. No way I can see the Saints losing this game by double-digits.
Official Play: NO +3.5, teased to +10.5
New England Patriots (6-7) at Miami Dolphins (8-5)
Spread: MIA -2.5, NE +2.5
Total: 41.5
This total is laughable, but actually probably accurate. I don’t see either team being able to put numbers on the board. While Miami kept it close with Kansas City, there really wasn’t an excuse for them not to win that game with the number of mistakes the Chiefs committed. If anything, I actually think it makes them look worse. Plus, there is the old narrative of Bill Belichick against rookie QBs that you have to consider. The last one he faced was the probable ROTY Justin Herbert and he made him look atrocious in a 45-0 rout of the Chargers. Tua Tagovailoa isn’t even close to the level Herbert is playing at right now, and I think Belichick takes advantage of Tua’s weaknesses enough to win this game. I like the Patriots in a low-scoring game, enough to where I’d bet them Moneyline. I also love them +2.5, and teased up to +8.5 is a no-brainer.
Official Play: NE +2.5, ML, teased to +8.5
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