I’m not sure what it is, but there’s certainly a new feeling surrounding the Chicago Bears and their chances to play in January. Over the last two weeks, QB Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense has shredded two of the worst defenses in the league to keep their slim playoff chances alive.
Now, in a place they tend to play well, U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, the Bears again have a chance to leapfrog the Vikings in the standings and stay alive in the playoff picture.
Early Odds: Bears vs. Vikings
Bears Pointspread (+3.5)
The Bears open as 3.5 point underdogs (+3.5) for Sunday’s game. This should not be surprising, after what happened at Soldier Field a month ago.
But a lot has changed since that pitiful offensive performance, and the Bears look and feel like a team that will not fold in the face of adversity. Over the last three games, Trubisky is touting a 103.2 passer rating to go with seven touchdown passes, David Montgomery has posted two of the longest runs of his career, and the offensive line has figured it out.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota is continuing to limp their way through the season to remain relevant. They defeated the lowly Jaguars, but it took overtime to do so, and then they got beat by the Buccaneers on the road.
So, why are the Vikings struggling?
Because QB Kirk Cousins has been sacked 14 times since visiting Soldier Field, 10 of which came in the last two games. If you remember how the Bears defense played against the Texans, I’m sure you’re liking where this is going.
According to betting experts, an overwhelming majority are taking the Bears to cover at (+3.5).
Over/Under Total Points (47.5)
The Vikings average around 26 points per game and the Bears average just under 22 points per game. Again, the Bears stats are misleading because the offense is operating at lightspeed under Mitch Trubisky compared to Nick Foles. They are averaging more points and almost 100 yards more per game.
A big thing to watch is the health of Bears rookie CB Jaylon Johnson. The Vikings have a top-five receiver duo in the NFL in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has been an unbelievable talent in 2020. The future offensive superstar is over 1,000 yards receiving and has seven touchdowns. If Johnson is out, backup CB Kindle Vildor is going to be in for a long afternoon.
Experts say this game will go over 47.5, and I tend to agree. The Bears offense, under Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor, looks like a mirage compared to what Nagy was running earlier in the year.
Moneylines
The Bears are (+160) and the Vikings are (-175). The safe pick is to take the Vikings at home because even though the Bears have looked solid in their last two games offensively, the sample size has yet to show they can win with their backs against the wall.
Sure, they beat the Texans. But are we really going to count that? The Texans were missing their top three wide receivers and running back David Johnson.
The Vikings defense has struggled this season. Injuries and trades have taken their best pieces, but they still have Harrison Smith. Smith loves playing against the Bears and has tormented Trubisky since he entered the league. That being said, the Bears can win this game if they pressure Cousins and use Montgomery 15-20 times effectively.
With the playoffs on the line, we are going to see which team is more mentally tough on Sunday.
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