There’s an old saying in Tennessee, I know it’s in Texas, and it’s probably in Tennessee that says, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me…you can’t get fooled again.” Or something like that, but Shōta Imanaga fucking sucks again, and that’s pretty bad news for the Chicago Cubs with one month left to go in the regular season.
It’s a shame because it’s always better to cheer on the extremely likable players, and there is no arguing that Imanaga has immersed himself in the city of Chicago, connected with the fan base, and has been very good at times. However, for the second straight season, the lefty has started off with good numbers before imploding in the summer. Imanaga has always given up home runs; that was the main worry when he came over from Japan, and while he was able to get away with it in 2024, the home run problem has become too big to overlook.
In Sunday’s 7-5 loss to the Cincinnati Reds, Imanaga served up three home runs and surrendered six runs in five innings. He gave up a three-run home run to Hector Rodriguez in the fourth inning, and then two more home runs in the fifth inning: a solo bomb by Dane Myers and a two-run shot by Tyler Stephenson.
Imanaga has now given up at least one home run in six consecutive starts. During that stretch, he’s posted a 5.22 ERA while allowing 11 home runs in 29.1 innings. Sunday night’s performance against the Reds set a new MLB record by a left-handed pitcher for most games allowing three or more home runs.
🔥 Subscribe to the Untold Chicago YouTube channel to hear Chicago legends tell stories you’ve never seen in headlines — real moments, real experiences, straight from the athletes themselves.
Looking ahead to the postseason, there is just no way that the Cubs can trust Imanaga to start a playoff game. We are seeing the exact same trend from the end of the 2025 season, when the Cubs still had to use Imanaga, but once it came to a do-or-die Game 5 in the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers, Craig Counsell stayed away from using Imanaga.
Yet, after Sunday’s poor outing, Counsell publicly backed up the veteran lefty, saying Imanaga’s spot in the rotation remains intact.
The frustrating part is that Imanaga does have some numbers that point to a pitcher who may be running into bad luck. He still has good strikeout numbers at 24%, a 35% chase rate, a 29.2% whiff rate, and a hard-hit rate of 36.1%. All those metrics are at or above the 67th percentile, including his 5.7 BB%, which ranks in the 91st percentile.
However, the barrel rate is concerning, his fastball velocity is declining, and the home runs are climbing, just like they did in the second half of last year.
Ben Brown is walking through that door after his latest setback. If Justin Steele returns this year, the lefty will only be used in short spurts out of the bullpen. Edward Cabrera has already been ousted from the starting rotation, so the only answer for the rest of the regular season is to get Imanaga right or have Javier Assad work his magic in September.
At this point, the Cubs have unfortunately lost their wiggle room for the top spot in the Wild Card race, and they have almost no shot at winning the division. So, some of these starts are going to matter a lot more than they would have liked, and because of it, you have to wonder how short the leash will be on Imanaga.
