The Chicago Bears took the biggest swing of any team yet at the trade deadline, flipping two 1st round picks and a 4th round pick to the Tennessee Titans for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and a 5th round pick. Unsurprisingly, several people have said general manager Ryan Poles got fleeced. You can understand why. Giving up two 1st rounders is a lot. However, one must be careful to call something a fleecing without examining the data. Did the Bears truly mortgage their future?
Not if you buy into the idea that 1st-round picks have different values. One must not forget that Chicago is a heavy favorite to make the playoffs this season. Playoff teams end up with at least the 21st overall pick or later. That is not the same as a top 10 pick. The #1 overall selection is worth 3,000 points according to traditional value charts. Let’s say the Bears are eliminated in the first round of the playoffs each of the next two years. Here’s how the points would stack up.
- 21st pick in 2027 – 800 points
- 22nd pick in 2028 – 780 points
- 4th round pick in 2027 – 46 points
If you subtract the 5th-round pick Chicago gets back with Simmons, which is around 30 points, you arrive at 1,596 points of value. That is the equivalent of the 6th overall pick in the draft. Again, this is the pessimistic view: the Bears barely make the playoffs and are immediately eliminated both times. That value drops even further if they make deeper runs.
Ryan Poles believes this team will mitigate the cost.
Here is a list of all the players selected 6th overall in the past decade.
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| Year | Player | Position | Drafted By |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Mansoor Delane | Cornerback | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2025 | Ashton Jeanty | Running Back | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers | Wide Receiver | New York Giants |
| 2023 | Paris Johnson Jr. | Offensive Tackle | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2022 | Ikem Ekwonu | Offensive Tackle | Carolina Panthers |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle | Wide Receiver | Miami Dolphins |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert | Quarterback | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2021 | Daniel Jones | Quarterback | New York Giants |
| 2018 | Quenton Nelson | Guard | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2017 | Jamal Adams | Safety | New York Jets |
Answer this question honestly. How many of those players were as good as Simmons is right now at any point in their careers? The only one who has a case is Nelson. You could argue Herbert because he’s a quarterback, but other than that, it’s been mostly good-to-meh. Poles believes he has a good enough team to stay competitive over the next two or three seasons. Doing so would make those picks far less valuable. Would you trade the 6th overall pick for Simmons if you knew he’d give you 3-4 years of dominant play? That is pretty much what the Bears just did.
Poles understands the value game better than you think.
Let’s look back at his ground-shifting deal in 2023 when he flipped the #1 overall pick to Carolina for D.J. Moore, two 1st rounders, and a 2nd rounder. The Panthers came away with 3,000 points in value for that pick, selecting Bryce Young. By contrast, the Bears ended up with 4,940 points in value thanks to landing the #1 pick in 2024, along with two 2nd round picks. That is what a true fleecing looks like. The Panthers gambled that Young could overcome that point differential by being great.
He’s been good. Unfortunately for them, Caleb Williams, Luther Burden, Tyrique Stevenson, and Tory Taylor have combined to be considerably better. The Panthers’ inability to compete right away hurt big time. Chicago has no such problem. They already have a top 10 offense with an ascending quarterback. They’re 5-2. This was a much better time to make a bold move. The math backs it up. Kudos to Ryan Poles for recognizing it.
