The Chicago Cubs will have to make several difficult decisions this upcoming offseason and that may ultimately include saying goodbye to Ian Happ, the team’s longest-tenured player. Some fans will be disappointed, while others will be throwing a parade outside Wrigley Field to celebrate the end of the Happ era. Regardless of how you feel about the switch-hitting left fielder, a few free-agent contract projections have been circulating on social media, and they basically point to the end of Happ’s career with the Cubs.
But remember, these are only projections; the market will speak for itself once free agency opens up following the World Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays. Still, these figures are a bit surprising, but it may just be Happ’s luck that, despite his substandard year, he’s a first-time free agent in a relatively weak class.
Happ signed a three-year, $61 million contract extension in April 2023. That deal has ended, but keep in mind that his agreement with the Cubs averaged $20.33 million per year. In 2026, Happ hit 24 home runs, but he posted a .218/.326/.412 slash line, resulting in a 107 wRC+, his lowest mark since 2021, and ranking ninth among 18 every-day starting left fielders.
This offseason’s outfield free-agent class is headlined by Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki, with Happ right behind them, with an estimated market value of nearly $40 million over a two-year contract, according to Spotrac. Would the Cubs really pony up $20 million per year for Happ, who saw his contact rate drop sharply while his whiff rate climbed above 30%?
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And remember the context behind the Cubs’ offseason spending plans. Early word from The Athletic suggests the front office is focusing on the pitching staff rather than targeting offensive upgrades. If the Cubs are already thinking twice about investing in Suzuki, who has been the superior outfielder compared to Happ, would they even consider bringing back Happ for $40 million?
But that’s not even the highest number suggested, as The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted that Happ will sign a two-year, $45 million contract in free agency. Sure, we’re three years removed from his extension, and salaries are going up across the board, but would the Cubs seriously consider re-signing Happ for more money on a yearly basis after a mediocre season, now that he’ll enter his age-32 season?
I’m not even ruling out the Cubs being interested in a reunion, but there’s no chance in hell they’re forking over $20 million+ for Happ, especially if they have to guarantee him multiple years. Happ loves being with the Cubs and playing in Chicago, which is why he’s rumored to be willing to take a hometown discount to re-sign, and that’s really the only scenario in which he’ll return. However, that might still be too much for the Cubs, who may only want Happ back for one season.
