Jim Bowden’s top-40 free agent list got me thinking about a couple of things this week, and it will become clear once fans start locking in on free agency and what could be a signing frenzy ahead of the looming lockout. First, this is a weak free-agent class overall, especially on the position-player side. I mean, Ian Happ is the No. 8-ranked non-pitcher on Bowden’s list, so that tells you a lot. GMs will make big mistakes this offseason because of the uncertainty, but it also creates an opportunity to cash in on some under-the-radar players.
While the Cubs feature five players on this top-40 list, one pending free agent didn’t make Bowden’s list, which makes him a bit underrated in my eyes this offseason. As a Cubs fan, I may be biased, but if you need a veteran catcher, Carson Kelly has been quietly pretty damn solid all around, not just with Chicago, but throughout his career, going back to his days with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Kelly has posted an 11.2 fWAR, ranking 12th among 55 qualified catchers.
Carson Kelly
The Cubs signed Carson Kelly to a two-year contract that guaranteed the catcher $11.5 million. Although his power numbers dipped in 2026, Kelly remains a productive player with the bat and on defense.
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Carson Kelly Stats w/Cubs
2025: .249/.333/.428, 115 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 10.7 BB%
2026: .258/.336/.376, 103 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 9.4 BB%
There are only two free-agent catchers on Bowden’s top-40 list, Tyler Stephenson and Ryan Jeffers, ranked back-to-back at No. 31 and 32, respectively. Again, we can’t take anyone’s list as gospel, but your first assumption is that Bowden is putting a lot of emphasis on age, because there’s not much separating Kelly from Stephenson. I’d actually rank Jeffers higher on the list based on his track record since 2023.
Player Comparison | Last 2 Seasons
Carson Kelly: .254/.335/.402, 109 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR, 27 HR, 108 RBI, 10.0 BB% (846 plate appearances)
Tyler Stephenson: .237/.320/.411, 101 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 10.6 BB% (810 plate appearances)
Ryan Jeffers: .261/.355/.425, 120 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR, 23 HR, 103 RBI, 11.5 BB% (832 plate appearances)
Kelly has also been better on defense than Stephenson and Jeffers, posting a 3 Fielding Run Value, dwarfing Stephenson’s -12 and Jeffers’ -10.
But Kelly is currently 32-years-old, while Stephenson is 30 and Jeffers is 29. Bowden predicts a two-year, $16 million contract for Stephenson and a two-year, $15.5 million contract for Jeffers.
This isn’t to say that Kelly should be guaranteed more money than either catcher, but it also wouldn’t be crazy to see Kelly get close to that average annual value. He lived up to his deal with the Cubs, earning nearly $6 million per year, so you have to believe that in a weak free-agent class, Kelly could match that as his floor and potentially get more if he opts to sign a one-year deal.
As for the Cubs, you can’t really take his production for granted. It’ll be interesting to see how the front office approaches the catcher position this offseason because right now Miguel Amaya is your veteran starter, and you’re hoping Owen Ayers is MLB-ready in 2027. Could it be a trade? Maybe Jed Hoyer shocks us and does spend on a catcher, but that scenario still seems unlikely considering the team isn’t expected to go big on the position player side.
But things can obviously change. For now, brace yourself for losing a very solid catcher in Carson Kelly.
