It’s crazy that we’re already in mid-July and at the All-Star break. Where has this year and season gone?!
At least, after a roller-coaster first half that saw WAY too many Chicago Cubs’ ‘fans’ lose their minds, the Cubs entered the break in first place in the NL Central by 2.5 games over second place Milwaukee. The Brewers lost six in a row, and seven of eight, to close out their first half, which was just excellent to see.
The Cubs resume their season on Thursday, commencing a five-game series in St. Louis. The Cardinals will be looking to turn their season around, as they finally fired Mike Matheny right before the break. The Cardinals in disarray is also always fun to watch. Bring on the second half!
I’d be remiss if I didn’t bring this up: Yesterday, Cubs’ stars Kyle Schwarber and Javy Baez partook in the annual Home Run Derby to kick off All-Star festivities. It was one of the best Derbies in recent memory, with Schwarber (who survived the first round by a foot and then turned in a comeback for the ages in the semifinals) losing in the final round to hometown hero Bryce Harper in similarly epic, dramatic fashion.
And today, Baez and Willson Contreras will represent the Cubs in the actual All-Star game before enjoying a couple days off. Jon Lester, who was also named an All-Star, was replaced on the NL roster after pitching Sunday afternoon in their win over San Diego.
With that, we reach into this week’s Cubs Mailbag. Thank you to everyone who submitted questions — as always, we appreciate the participation! If you want to further continue the discussion about anything below, hit me up on Twitter: @DhruvKoul.
Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have both said that we can expect them to go after pitching help at the trade deadline. Yu Darvish has been injured most of the year, and there’s no telling how effective he’ll be upon his return. Kyle Hendricks has had a tougher season than many expected, and Tyler Chatwood has not worked out as hoped thus far. Mike Montgomery, who began his rotation stint filling in for Darvish/Chatwood in unhittable fashion, has understandably regressed.
The bullpen, while largely fantastic, has been overworked thanks to many short(er) starts from the rotation and extra inning games. And don’t forget, the Cubs will have more games to play in the second half than many teams because of multiple rainouts in the first half. So the pitching staff could certainly use some help.
Since you asked about starting pitching in particular, yes, I certainly do believe the Cubs will try to upgrade their rotation. That said, I have a hard time believing they’ll be willing or able to put together a real offer for New York Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom. They’d have to part with significant major-league assets, in addition to minor league talent, to get him, and Hoyer recently said that the team is likely to try to supplement the current core rather than replace parts of it.
The Cubs have also been linked to starters J.A. Happ and Nathan Eovaldi, and either one would be a good fit for the Cubs’ needs. But one interesting candidate to keep your eye on is Texas Rangers’ lefty Cole Hamels. The Rangers acquired Hamels in a blockbuster trade a couple of years ago, and his stint in Arlington hasn’t gone according to plan.
Hamels is 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.34 WHIP overall this season. He’s given up 106 hits and 21 homers in 109.1 innings already. But his splits when not pitching in Arlington have been rock solid. Away from home? He’s 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .222 BAA in 55.1 IP.
He’s still extremely durable, he can eat innings, and is under control through next season. Also, the Cubs would likely not have to part with significant assets to get him and take on his high salary.
I, personally, would be a fan of Hamels at Wrigley. He’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the deadline gets closer. His name hasn’t been talked about too much just yet in trade rumors, so perhaps the Cubs could sneak in unnoticed and get him without a bidding war taking place. And Hamels has historically pitched extremely well at Wrigley Field … another thing to keep in mind.
When you consider the expectations from this season, the Cubs likely envisioned their rotation to be (in this order): Jon Lester, Yu Darvish / Kyle Hendricks (interchangeably), Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood.
Lester has been a true ace and has righted the rotation’s struggles at every opportunity. Darvish, the Cubs’ big free-agent pickup this past offseason, has made eight total (mediocre) starts and has been injured since, with a return hopefully in August coming. Hendricks has struggled at times this season, especially with his command/location, which has hurt him throughout the year. Quintana, other than a few rough starts, has been quite solid this year with respect to his expectations. And Chatwood … Holy hell, has he been bad. But on the bright side, postseason rotations are only four starters deep, so Chatwood wouldn’t be in unless something went really wrong.
With that said, I think it’s clear that for the Cubs’ stretch run and postseason hopes, they need Hendricks to return to form, and for Darvish to get healthy and recapture his form. Otherwise, the Cubs’ rotation, while OK, won’t measure up to most, deep playoff rotations.
I’m assuming you mean from the Cubs’ major-league roster? Frankly, I don’t want to trade anyone. People have been quick to include Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, and even Albert Almora Jr.’s names in trade talks. I get it, especially if it means acquiring a front-line starter. But when it comes to acquiring a rental and rolling the dice, I’m much more hesitant. The farm system is not what it once was, which means we will scrutinize any deal that involves major-league talent.
That said, people have suggested packaging SS Addison Russell and another name or two from the minors in a deal to get Baltimore SS Manny Machado, who would be a free agent next year. Russell, whom I very much still like as a baseball player, is not an easy person for me to root for anymore, especially with the news of his affair and alleged domestic abuse coming out last year. But he is a decidedly better shortstop than Machado, who is an elite third baseman but insists on playing shortstop, where he currently produces a negative grade!
In an ideal world (if we had to), the Cubs trade Russell (purely for character questions) for Machado, move Machado to 3B, Kris Bryant to LF, Javy to SS, and Happ to 2B. Then, they figure out what to do Schwarber. But, that’s likely not going to happen, because Machado may not sign an extension with the Cubs if it means committing to 3B. And there’s no way the Cubs make that trade without an extension done or a commitment to sign.
But still, Russell would be my trade-away preference if someone from the major league roster has to go. That said, Russell is a hero for his efforts in 2016, especially in the postseason. And for that, I’m thankful, moral dilemma or not.
