Three months after the Chicago White Sox traded Michael Kopech, Tommy Pham, and Erick Fedde in a three-team deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals, the trade looked like a disaster.
Kopech went on to help the Dodgers win the World Series, while Miguel Vargas, the centerpiece of the White Sox return, looked miserable playing in Chicago.
In his first 157 at-bats in a White Sox uniform, Miguel Vargas managed just 14 hits and posted a dreadful .387 OPS. Adding insult to injury, Vargas was caught on camera sulking in the dugout following a loss as the White Sox trudged through toward a historically bad 41-win season.
But sometimes in baseball, as in life, good things come to those who wait. Fast forward two years, and the blank, thousand-yard stares that once followed games have turned into bows shared with Munetaka Murakami after White Sox wins. The White Sox have emerged as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning seven of their last 10 games and sitting just one game behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, with Vargas playing a major role in the turnaround.
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The White Sox “big three” of Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, and Munetaka Murakami have powered the lineup with a combined 41 home runs. They are the only trio in baseball with 10-plus homers apiece and are now tied for second in franchise history with four games in which they have all homered in the same contest. But much like Ringo Starr in The Beatles, Vargas often feels like the overlooked member of the group.
That may need to change. A strong case can be made that Vargas has not only been the most well-rounded hitter of the trio, but also the most productive third baseman in the American League this season.
That was on full display over the weekend, Miguel Vargas homered on back-to-back nights, drove in five runs, and scored three more during the White Sox series win over the Chicago Cubs. He set the tone in Saturday’s 8-3 rout of their Crosstown rivals with a three-run blast in the first inning, then followed it up Sunday with a clutch RBI double in the fifth that tied the game.
Through his first 162 at-bats, Vargas has posted a 2.1 WAR, with 11 home runs, 29 RBIs, and a .880 OPS.
The 26-year-old has backed that production with elite underlying metrics. He ranks in the 90th percentile among MLB hitters in both expected slugging percentage and barrel rate, while also grading in the top half of the league in hard-hit rate and expected batting average. Vargas also leads the Chicago White Sox in runs scored, ranks second in hits, and is tied for third in both home runs and doubles.
More impressively, he is hitting just about everyone. Against right-handers, Vargas owns a .736 OPS. Against lefties, that number jumps to a staggering 1.203. He is also seeing the ball well, pairing one of the lowest chase rates in baseball with a 15% walk rate that has already produced 30 free passes this season.
He’s also been solid with the glove, with a .970 fielding percentage, which ranks fifth best among American League third basemen. Beyond the numbers, he’s also taken Munetaka Murakami under his wing as the Japanese slugger adjusts to life in the United States, with the two frequently seen interacting in the dugout.
But with Vargas’ sudden emergence, the White Sox now have a tough decision to make. He is set to enter his first year of arbitration and is in line for a large raise if he continues at this clip. Normally, now would be the time to start talking extensions, but given the organization’s abundance of infield talent in the minor leagues, and Roch Cholowsky projected to join the mix, where does that leave Vargas?
While he can play outfield and third base, his days as an outfielder appear to be over, and as long as Murakami is on the roster, first base is locked down. Jacob Gonzalez is knocking on the door for a promotion, but with Chase Meidroth off to a hot start, it would be hard to justify moving him off second base.
That doesn’t even factor in Caleb Bonemer, who has not only been the White Sox hottest prospect this season, but could soon climb to the number one-ranked prospect in baseball. As things currently stand, Montgomery seems like the most likely candidate to switch positions. But a move from shortstop to third base would come at the expense of Vargas.
There are three roads the White Sox can choose. Keep Vargas and move some of their prospects at the deadline to free up space, trade Vargas, or kick the can down the road another season by paying him in arbitration and getting another full-season sample size before deciding to extend him.
On paper, the third option is the most logical, but Gonzalez and Bonemer are only gonna be able to be stashed in the minor leagues for so long.
Now would be the perfect time to sell high on Vargas. The American League is wide open, and there will not be many sellers at the deadline. But what type of message does that send to the rest of the locker room, in a season where Vargas has not only been one of the most productive hitters, but also a growing clubhouse presence?
That’s why moving some prospects may be the White Sox best path forward, but only if it brings back controllable assets in return. If Chicago is still in the mix come July, adding pitching help at the deadline would send a clear vote of confidence to both the clubhouse and the fan base. But with few projecting a deep postseason run, a short-term rental would be hard to justify. Of the White Sox prospects with value, Gonzalez seems like the most realistic trade.
It’s a good problem to have for the White Sox, who are in uncharted territory given the plethora of talent in the organization. But that doesn’t make the decision any easier.
