After taking MLB by storm, Munetaka Murakami has quickly positioned himself for a massive payday.
Just seven weeks into the season, the White Sox rookie has already posted a .920 OPS, 1.2 WAR, and launched 15 home runs, the second-most in MLB. As a result, the White Sox have seen a spike in national attention, along with increased viewership from fans in Japan following the former NPB single-season home run king.
The increased exposure is good for business, something that is sure to pique the interest of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who reportedly needed persuasion from the team’s marketing department before approving Murakami’s two-year, $34 million deal this offseason.
At this point, Murakami has exceeded many industry expectations. Despite a high strikeout rate, he’s drawing walks at a 17.3% clip and ranks near the top of the league in barrel rate, expected slugging, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage, production that’s helped drive strong demand for his jerseys. With the MLB’s top two jersey sale leaders, both coming from Japan, Murakami could soon see his name climb up that list.
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However, some fans in Japan have said they’re hesitant to make the trip to Chicago this season out of concern that the White Sox could move him. While reports suggest a trade is highly unlikely, the White Sox may be wise to explore locking up a potential star who more or less fell into their lap this offseason.
Last week, ESPN 1000’s Carmen DeFalco reported that league sources believe conversations are already underway regarding a possible extension for Murakami. DeFalco also noted the White Sox would be willing to move into the range of a four-year, $100 million deal, which would make him the highest-paid player in franchise history.
However, DeFalco added that he was told Murakami would not accept that type of offer. That leaves a major question hanging over the situation: what would it actually take for the White Sox to lock up Munetaka Murakami long term?
Murakami draws frequent comparisons to Kyle Schwarber, another three-outcome power hitter who lives off walks, strikeouts, and home runs.
Schwarber signed a five-year, $150 million deal with the Phillies, but has a much longer track record. The White Sox have realized what they have stumbled into with Murakami, who has received rave reviews about his work ethic and dedication to the game. That work ethic is one of the reasons that the White Sox believe the early returns have been no fluke.
But there are still some red flags, which is why extending a similar offer to Murakami is unlikely at this point. The 26-year-old has done the bulk of his damage this season in the first game of a series, which suggests teams are adjusting to him. He is also striking out at a 34% rate, which profiles similarly to Joey Gallo, another three-outcome hitter, who owned a career 38% strikeout rate.
Following an All-Star season in which he hit 38 home runs, the highest contract Gallo ever received was a one-year $10 million deal with the New York Yankees. Unlike Gallo, Murakami’s underlying metrics suggest a higher offensive floor, as he is on pace for a higher batting average and more homers. But unlike Gallo, he also does not provide value as an above-average defender.
When looking at player contracts, the AAV is more important to most players than the actual total value of the contract. With the White Sox reportedly willing to offer him an AAV of $25 million over four years, it’s hard to believe that a Reinsdorf-owned team will go above the $30 million AAV Schwarber has.
Currently, the top five highest-paid first basemen in MLB carry an average annual value of about $27 million. If the White Sox were to structure a five-year deal at that rate, it would make Murakami the seventh-highest-paid first baseman in the game, just below Pete Alonso’s five-year, $155 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles. It would also line up Murakami to reach free agency at age 33, positioning him for one more payday.
On paper, that framework looks reasonable for both sides, especially for the White Sox, who would only need to go roughly $3 million per year above what they were initially rumored to be considering. But if Murakami is unwilling to sign at that level, it becomes difficult to justify pushing much further this early in his MLB tenure.
Murakami does appear to be settling in well on the South Side, and a longer-term deal could ultimately be in play. Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million contract, with a $21 million AAV, could serve as a realistic blueprint. Olson is the more complete player at this stage of his career, but even if Murakami never quite reaches that level of production, his offensive upside and marketing appeal could still help bridge the gap in value over the life of a deal.
Justin Ishbia, who is waiting in the wings to take over as owner, is also part of the equation. Ishbia has shown a willingness to spend aggressively in free agency as a co-owner of the Phoenix Suns, and securing Murakami long-term would only increase the value and appeal of his White Sox investment.
It’s a unique and unenviable position for the White Sox, who are watching Murakami’s value climb by the day as he continues to mash baseballs. But after being burned by early extensions with players like Luis Robert Jr., Yoán Moncada, and Eloy Jiménez, it’s understandable why the organization would approach another long-term commitment with caution.
