Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don’t. Miguel Vargas hasn’t just been a catalyst for the Chicago White Sox breakout season, he’s also emerged as one of the best third basemen in baseball.
Vargas’ All-Star campaign continued in Minnesota on Monday. He cranked a 104 mph two-run homer to left field in the top of the fifth, then added another triple-digit shot to left field in the top of the ninth, marking his second multi-homer game of the season.
Vargas has stuffed the stat sheet through 59 games, posting a .509 slugging percentage and .875 OPS with 15 home runs and 38 RBIs. He also leads the White Sox with 44 runs scored and nine stolen bases. These numbers are not empty calories on a bad team either.
Few third basemen have been more valuable than Vargas this season. His 2.4 WAR ranks third among all MLB third basemen and second in the American League behind only Kevin McGonigle. Meanwhile, his 2.27 Win Probability Added ranks fifth in the majors, underscoring his knack for delivering in the game’s biggest moments.
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While McGonigle holds the edge in WAR, Vargas has been the superior run producer. The White Sox third baseman boasts a higher OPS and slugging percentage, while also outpacing McGonigle by 12 home runs and 17 RBIs.
What has been most impressive about Vargas’ breakout season is the lack of a glaring weakness in his offensive profile. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone, and when he gets something he can drive, he rarely misses it.
The underlying metrics back that up. Vargas owns a strikeout rate below the league average, while his nearly 15% walk rate ranks among the best in baseball. He also sits in the 90th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, barrel rate, and chase rate, while grading well above league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, bat speed, and whiff rate.
Vargas has feasted on left-handers this season, posting a .328/.468/.738 slash line for a staggering 1.206 OPS. While his splits against right-handers are not as pretty, he has still done plenty of damage, with eight of his 15 home runs and 28 of his 38 RBIs coming against righties.
At this point, the only real blemish on Vargas’ résumé comes on the defensive side of the ball. Even then, the shortcomings are relatively minor. Despite posting a minus-2 Outs Above Average at third base, Vargas has held his own at the hot corner and ranks second among American League third basemen with 40 putouts. That was on full display on Sunday against the Detroit Tigers when he went tumbling over the tarp on the third baseline to snag a critical out in the ninth.
While many are quick to write off young players after a slow start, Vargas has become a reminder that development is rarely linear. In his first 157 at-bats in a White Sox uniform, Miguel Vargas managed just 14 hits and posted a dreadful .387 OPS. Now he looks like a bona fide All-Star.
