Caleb Williams’ Projected Trade Cost By ESPN Is Absurd. So Let’s See Who’d Pay It

Anybody with half a brain knows the Chicago Bears would never trade Caleb Williams. Not for all the gold in Fort Knox. He represents the first legitimate franchise-caliber quarterback the organization has had in decades. Nobody in their right mind would have the guts to do something like that. It would be tantamount to committing career suicide. Still, it’s at least an interesting discussion. If, for some reason, the Bears were to entertain the idea of trading Williams, how much would it actually cost?

Bill Barnwell of ESPN decided to find out. Based on his estimates from previous deals and leaguewide views on Williams, he reached a pretty stark conclusion.

“Four first-round picks: QB Caleb Williams. There’s still a fair amount of projection to be done with Williams, who had the worst completion percentage over expectation of any regular quarterback in 2025, per Next Gen Stats. The playoff game against the Rams might be the best example of how easy it is to draw multiple perspectives on Williams, given that he threw three interceptions and still electrified Bears fans with a game-tying drive at the end of regulation.”

To date, only two quarterbacks have been traded for three 1st round picks in NFL history. One was Deshaun Watson and the other was Russell Wilson. Four would be the new record. It sounds insane, especially after how poorly those two other trades worked out. However, the NFL is a quarterback league. You’d have to think somebody would summon up the courage to pull the trigger.

So who?

Finding a taker for that Caleb Williams price comes down to key factors.

The first and most obvious is need. It has to be a team with a glaring hole at the quarterback position. For whatever reason, they find themselves with no clear solution. They feel they need a franchise-caliber guy. Next, you must find a front office with a reputation for being at least somewhat aggressive. This might be helped by the possibility that they’re under pressure to win after a few disappointing seasons. A similar situation with Ryan Pace in 2021. Lastly, there is the ownership. As we’ve seen with Dave Tepper and Jimmy Haslam, few things drive blockbuster moves like this more than an involved owner.

After looking over the current state of the league, five teams met at least two of the three criteria mentioned above. Two of those five met all three.

Any one of those teams would at least place phone calls to the Bears about Caleb Williams. They might at least discuss the idea of giving up four 1st round picks. However, it is likely that most will get cold feet. Such is not the case with Cleveland and Indianapolis.

Both of those teams sit in the perfect storm.

The Colts are at the tail end of the failed Anthony Richardson experiment. Their best option at quarterback is Daniel Jones, who tore his Achilles last season. General manager Chris Ballard is under a ton of pressure as the guy who drafted Richardson in the first place. We already know he’s not afraid to be aggressive, as his big trades for DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner show. New owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon is already known for being hands-on with the team, often listening in on coaching broadcasts from the sideline.

As for Cleveland, they’ve already shown a willingness to swing big on quarterbacks before. See the Deshaun Watson trade. Nothing has changed since then. They still badly need a quarterback. GM Andrew Berry was the one who greenlit the Watson trade a few years ago, and owner Jimmy Haslam was the one who pushed for it. You’d think they might get gun-shy about trying it again after how bad the Watson thing went, but every attempt to find the right guy has flopped. Maybe a second swing does it.

Thankfully, Bears fans won’t have to worry about this scenario becoming a reality.