If you listen to the various experts talk about Caleb Williams’ 2025 season, they all say the same things with different wording. He already has the big plays down. He must get better at the “layups.” Hit the easy throws, improve the completion percentage, and play on time. Work to stay in the pocket. That is where he needs the most improvement, right? All of this stems from his league-low 58.1 completion percentage, illustrating an inability to connect on several of his easier throws, likely brought about by his unwillingness to stay in the pocket.
So imagine how those people might feel seeing a new metric chart that just came out. It covers the EPA (Expected Points Added) of every starting quarterback from inside the pocket vs. outside the pocket. Those who are great at both are in the top right. Those in the bottom left are bad at both. What do you notice?
Yep, Williams sits in the bottom-right box, meaning he was a considerably better player inside the pocket than he was outside. This is backed up by the stats, too. For the season, Williams had a better passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt last season. The only advantage his plays outside the pocket was a better TD-to-INT ratio.
| Passing Metric | Inside the Pocket | Outside the Pocket / Under Pressure | Total 2025 Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passer Rating | 101.4 | 71.8 | 90.1 |
| Pass Attempts | 353 | 215 | 568 |
| Passing Yards | 2,824 | 1,118 | 3,942 |
| Passing Touchdowns | 21 | 6 | 27 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Completion Rate | 66.1% | 46.4% | 58.1% |
| Yards Per Attempt | 8.4 | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| ANY/A | 7.9 | 1.2 | 6.4 |
This illustrates an interesting subplot with Caleb Williams.
Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson expressed frustration with the team’s receiving corps after last season, saying they need to do a better job at working to get open when the quarterback scrambles. This is reflected in the completion percentage. Williams threw 215 passes outside the pocket but completed well under half of them. By contrast, Patrick Mahomes, who had a worse overall season, completed over 62% of his passes outside the pocket. That tells you the Kansas City Chiefs do a much better job of getting receivers to work their way open, knowing Mahomes will scramble.
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The Bears clearly didn’t have a good enough handle on that last season. Part of it might’ve been unfamiliarity. Outside of Rome Odunze (who missed several games) and D.J. Moore, none of the quarterback’s primary targets had played a season with him before. Colston Loveland and Luther Burden were rookies. Olamide Zaccheaus was signed that offseason. Sometimes it takes a year or two for somebody to get acclimated to playing with a quarterback of Williams’ style. Just look at the production of Tajh Washington and Brenden Rice in their first and second seasons with him at USC.
If Caleb’s strength is the problem, that’s a good thing.
Everybody said from the beginning that off-script was where the quarterback thrived. He makes magic outside the pocket. For him to be that inefficient at what he does best is actually good. It means he should get considerably better next season. Meanwhile, the area he was supposed to be bad at was easily the most consistent part of his game. It shows how much work Williams has put in to become a more complete quarterback, along with the excellent coaching of Ben Johnson and his staff.
The original critiques are still valid. Caleb Williams must learn to take the easier throws when they’re available. Constant big-game hunting just doesn’t lead to sustained success in today’s NFL. It’s about balance. Play the chess match. Set up your opponent, find the right situation, and then take his queen. Williams hasn’t gotten there yet. He’s getting closer. There were signs late last season. It’s about putting on those finishing touches. If he’s made it this far, there is no reason he can’t go the distance.
