Monday, April 15, 2024

Gonzalez’s Surge Raises Questions About His Long-Term Potential

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The White Sox front office has been high on Romy Gonzalez. In Rick Hahn’s first press conference of Spring Training, he made a point to praise the 25-year-old infielder.

“I think there’s been nothing but rage reviews about Romy Gonzalez this offseason from the coaches that have worked with him,” Hahn said during his first media appearance of Spring Training. “They even had a player who went down and came back in my office in the offseason and said, ‘Don’t you dare trade that guy.”

It sounded like Hahn was blowing smoke at the time, especially when he went out and signed Elvis Andrus to start at second base.

However, Gonzalez then made the Opening Day roster despite the team already having a utility infielder in Hanser Alberto and a better bat available in Jake Burger.

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Even after he returned from a stint on the 10-day IL due to right shoulder inflammation, and Jake Burger was tearing the cover off the ball, there were never any thoughts of sending him down.

Gonzalez Is Feeling It At The Plate

It looks like the White Sox’s patience with Gonzalez is beginning to bear fruit. On Monday night, Gonzalez attacked a first-pitch sinker from Angles reliever Griffin Canning and drove it 423 feet over the center field fence for a home run. The home run added to Gonzalez’s recent hot streak at the plate.

In his last 15 games, he is slashing .294/.306/.647 with ten RBIs and a pair of home runs. Considering what the White Sox have been getting from their second baseman all season, those are solid numbers.

Heading into this week, White Sox second baseman combined for a .140/.181/.199 slash line. Somebody hitting near the MLB average would have been a breath of fresh air for the lineup. That’s why it is so refreshing to see Gonzalez producing. Especially since he is a scrappy player that runs hard between the lines. He is an easy player to root for.

According to StatCast, Gonzalez ranks in the 94th percentile in the MLB in sprint speed. His max exit velocity places him in the 86th percentile. It’s clear that he provides some value.

Is This Production Sustainable?

The only question is can Romy Gonzalez maintain this level of play, or is this just a hot streak? We have already seen a large sample size of Gonzalez at the plate, and the returns were less than ideal.

Gonzalez is a career .230 hitter with a .611 OPS. Last season he slashed .238/.257/.352 (25-for-105) with seven extra-base hits (including two home runs and a triple) and 11 RBIs in 32 games. In his first taste of MLB action in 2021, he went 8-for-32 with three doubles and a pair of RBIs.

His struggles at the plate were not limited to the major league level. In 33 games at Triple-A Charlotte in 2022, he hit .198/.281/.339 with four home runs and just ten RBIs. His base stealing also took a hit. He was caught stealing on his only attempt in the MLB and went five for seven in Charlotte.

This season he is hitting just .206 with a .612 OPS. The only reason his batting average is even above .200 is due to his recent hit streak.

So why is the front office so high on Gonzalez? Entering the 2022 season was not listed as one of the organization’s top 30 prospects.

When the White Sox selected his contract, he was just one of seven players in the minor leagues with 20-plus home runs and 20-plus steals. By the season’s end, he was one of just 16 minor-leaguers to accomplish that feat.

He had earned a look in the big leagues. He can also play multiple positions and has above-average speed. There were reports that he was dealing with some nagging minor injuries that affected his play last season.

Excuses aside, when you look at his career numbers, there is not much reason to believe his recent tear at the plate is sustainable. His career strikeout rate is 35.3 percent which is well above the MLB average of 36 percent. Gonzalez has excellent speed, but he often can’t utilize it because he doesn’t put the ball in play.

Even in his last 15 games, he has 12 strikeouts in 34 at-bats. When he does hit the ball, he hits the ball hard. However, his expected batting average is still just .228 on his career. This shows he really isn’t getting all that unlucky at the plate. The results tell the story.

Gonzalez isn’t very patient in the box either. He owns just a career walk rate of just 1.9 percent. The MLB average is 9.4 percent. Lots of strikeouts, a low batting average, and little power usually are not a recipe for sustained success in the MLB.

You would think that with these numbers at the plate, he would be an elite fielder. While he has above-average arm strength and is versatile, he has a -2 OAA across all positions he has played in 2023.

The bottom line is that while Romy Gonzalez has been playing well as of late, the White Sox would be foolish to lean on him as the starting second baseman moving forward. He may be a better option than Elvis Andrus, but the bar is set incredibly low.

The front office probably isn’t going to make any moves to address second base at the deadline, and Andrus is just a one-year rental. The team might as well ride it out with Gonzalez and find out if he is a flash in the pan or just needed a few months to get going.

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Marsha Karine
May 30, 2023 9:53 am

few months to get going

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