Going into the 2026 NFL draft, the safety position was considered one of the stronger ones in the class. Most of that was thanks to the presence of two names: Ohio State’s Caleb Downs and Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman. It was a classic case of the polished gem against the uniquely gifted athlete. Most felt Downs was the better all-around player. Thieneman was the better athlete who might become great if he continued to hone his craft. That is why the Dallas Cowboys took Downs 12th overall in the 1st round. The Chicago Bears managed to scoop Thieneman 25th.
For the first few weeks, it looked like Dallas made the right call. Downs had 17 tackles, a sack, and 2 forced fumbles in his first two games. However, the narrative has begun shifting recently. In the past 3 games, opponents have completed 13-of-13 passes when targeting him for 130 yards and a touchdown. They’re starting to wonder if he might be a liability in coverage. Meanwhile, Thieneman added a sack to his growing list of accomplishments against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
People are starting to question how high Downs’ ceiling is.
Dillon Thieneman has had his rough moments, too.
He was beaten for a touchdown for the second week in a row by Atlanta. However, there is an important difference to note. Talent had nothing to do with those cases. Thieneman was in good coverage against Green Bay last week. He just failed to get his head turned around to make a play on the ball. That is a common rookie mistake. On the second one, he was put in a tough spot by a Falcons pick play, forcing him to make a really difficult tackle on Kyle Pitts, who is 6’6″ and 250 lbs. He almost did.
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The point is that there hasn’t been a situation yet this season where Dillon Thieneman has looked like a liability. He can do everything asked of him, be it as a run defender, blitzer, or cover man. Such hasn’t been the case with Downs. While he remains a great run defender and blitzer, he has a clear weakness when asked to play coverage. Opponents have discovered this reality and are finding ways to exploit it. There were warnings from draft experts that this might become a problem if the team drafting him didn’t account for it.
The Bears have to be pretty happy with their luck.
They admitted it was surprising that Thieneman was available. They felt there was a good chance the young safety would go much earlier in the 1st round. Perhaps there was even the possibility that Dallas took him instead. For him to fall to #25 feels like a blessing. It’s too soon to make grand proclamations on the career of him or Downs. Both still have a lot of growing to do. That said, it can at least be stated that Thieneman has closed the gap on him as an overall prospect as their rookie seasons approach the halfway mark.
The Cowboys better hope Downs eventually overcomes his current issues. It won’t be a great look if the safety Chicago took at the end of the 1st round turns out to be better than the one they took with a borderline top-10 pick. It is another reminder that the draft is far from straightforward. Sometimes even the obvious choices don’t pan out as you expect.
