The Chicago White Sox are one win away from the American League Championship Series. The phrase has already been said twice in this series, but after letting a chance to clinch at home slip away, they’ll have to find a way to finish the job on the road.
No home team has won a game in this series, an ironic twist considering how much better the White Sox performed at home during the regular season, posting a .592 winning percentage at Rate Field compared to .444 on the road.
The White Sox appeared to be in control of the series after taking a 2-0 lead against the Cleveland Guardians, putting themselves in position to clinch a postseason series on the South Side for the first time since 1906. Instead, two gut-punch losses at Rate Field have left Chicago facing a winner-take-all Game 5 at Progressive Field, with its season hanging in the balance.
The collapse was difficult to watch for a team that had spent the entire season defying expectations. After a raucous Game 3 crowd watched the White Sox strike out a postseason-record 19 times, Game 4 brought more of the same frustrating trends. Across the two games, Chicago combined for 31 strikeouts while the pitching staff issued 17 walks — a combination that no team had ever recorded over a two-game span, postseason or otherwise.
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The offense struggled to capitalize on its opportunities, going just 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position in Game 4. Meanwhile, the pitching staff struggled to keep Cleveland off the bases, and the bullpen eventually buckled under the pressure. Five of the seven White Sox pitchers used in Game 4 allowed at least one run, including Grant Taylor, who entered a tie game in the sixth inning and allowed all six batters he faced to reach base without recording an out.
Now, the White Sox must put those struggles behind them with everything on the line.
Sean Burke will take the mound for Chicago in the biggest start of his career, tasked with slowing down a Guardians lineup that has found its footing over the past two games. Burke’s ability to attack the strike zone and limit free passes will be critical against a Cleveland team that has capitalized on Chicago’s mistakes. The White Sox cannot afford to fall behind early and allow the home crowd to take over.
Credit to Will Venable and the White Sox for ditching their opener strategy. Burke is one of the few White Sox pitchers who has been better on the road, posting a 2.58 ERA away from Rate Field. He has also proven he’s a dawg, firing 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball out of the bullpen in Game 2. That’s exactly the kind of mentality Chicago needs with its season on the line. The key will be to give him the ball, let him rip, and hope he can provide some length.
Defensively, the White Sox will need to improve their outfield positioning. During pitching changes, the Guardians would often send a ball boy into the outfield with an updated positioning card. Meanwhile, Chicago watched a lazy fly ball drop for a triple in left field in Game 3 after Randal Grichuk was positioned too far toward center field. Braden Montgomery also failed to make a play on a line drive in Game 4 after being shaded too far toward right-center field, although a poor route contributed to the misplay.
The Guardians are pest, and do not go away quietly despite their lack of offensive fire power. The White Sox cannot affrod to let them keep the lining moving with mistakes.
The offense, meanwhile, doesn’t necessarily need to deliver a home run barrage, although after hitting just one homer over the last two games, it would certainly help. Chicago needs to rediscover the discipline that helped fuel its postseason success in Houston, put runners on base and capitalize when opportunities arise. The White Sox have shown throughout the regular season that they can manufacture runs and bounce back from difficult losses. They’ll need to prove that again with their season on the line.
There is reason for optimism, even after two disappointing performances. Chicago has repeatedly responded to adversity throughout the year, and the final inning of Game 4 offered a reminder that the series is far from over. Miguel Vargas’ leadoff home run sparked a rally that forced Guardians closer Cade Smith to throw 27 pitches before Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt turned to presumed Game 5 starter Gavin Williams to record the final out.
That late push could matter in a game where every bullpen decision carries extra weight. Cleveland has the advantage of playing at home, but its relief corps has also endured a demanding series. With Burke available on a full five days of rest, Chicago could have an advantage if its starter provides length and allows the bullpen to avoid being overextended.
The stakes could hardly be higher. The winner advances to the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, moving one step closer to playing for an American League pennant. For the White Sox, a team that has spent the season rewriting expectations, the opportunity is now just one win away.
The White Sox weren’t supposed to be here. They weren’t supposed to be playing meaningful baseball this deep into October, much less standing one win away from the ALCS. But when they returned home for Games 3 and 4, the expectations suddenly changed. For the first time all season, this young team felt the weight of a city believing it was supposed to win.
Now, that pressure has shifted back to Cleveland. The Guardians have let a chance to close out the series slip away, and many fans and talking heads have already written off the White Sox. That might be exactly where Chicago wants to be. This team has repeatedly thrived when the odds were stacked against it. And if there’s one thing this Cinderella run has shown, it’s that counting out the White Sox is a dangerous game.
