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Take this with a grain of salt, but not only are the Cubs currently the favorites to sign Carlos Correa on the DraftKings Sportsbook, they have the best odds by A LOT to sign the free agent shortstop.
Normally, these headlines feature some random offshore betting site, but we’re talking about one of the big boys in the betting industry in the United States and it has the Cubs at +280 to sign Correa. The next best odds to get the 28-year-old are the Twins, who Correa played for in 2022 before opting out of the remaining two years of his deal, and the Cardinals, at +550.
I mean, basically 2x more likely that Correa ends up with the Cubs than the next two teams?!
The Cubs are reportedly one of the most active teams talking to the four free agent shortstops through the first week of the offseason and they’ve already met with Scott Boras to discuss Correa and Xander Bogaerts among other players the agent represents.
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There is no doubt that the Cubs will try to sign one of the shortstops to as close to their terms as possible. That essentially means signing one of them to a deal that is no longer than six years, which seems to be their magic number on length when you read all the Chicago reporters this past week. That being said, who’s to say the Cubs don’t go to a seventh year on Correa, which they were willing to offer prior to the lockout last offseason.
Again, I’m not sure anyone can argue that the betting odds tell you anything is certain, especially when it comes to free agent signings, but this does obviously catch your eye because of how much the Cubs are favored to end up with Correa. It’s kind of wild. Heavy favorites.
The Cubs did make a run at Correa last year, but he wanted a deal closer to 10 years and eventually signed a three-year contract with opt-out clauses so that he could test free agency if he had another good season. Despite early struggles and a trip to the injured list, Correa came back strong for the Twins and finished the season with a 4.4 fWAR in 136 games, while posting an .834 OPS and 140 wRC+, both tops among all shortstops.
There have been reports, rumors and projections connecting the Cubs to the top-four free agent shortstops, including three of four MLBTR writers picking Dansby Swanson signing with the Cubs in their annual predictions.
Back in the summer, a Minnesota sports reporter reiterated how much the Cubs love Correa.
The Cubs are also said to have interest in Trea Turner and at the GM Meetings this past week in Las Vegas, an agent told Gordon Wittenmyer that he thinks Turner signs with the Cubs. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman listed the Cubs as one of Xander Bogaerts’ most likely destinations.
But even as Heyman wrote about the Cubs being a potential landing spot for Bogaerts, he noted how Correa still makes the most sense in his mind for them.
I’ve been thinking about this for a few days now and it’s that Correa may end up having to settle for a shorter deal than he wants. If no one wowed him last year what are the chances a team does pony up on an 8-10 year contract this time around?
Maybe a seven-year, $230 million gets it done for Correa? Would you want that for the Cubs? Let us know!
