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I’ll say this every time I write about predictions, it’s simply something fun to talk about and maybe on occasion these projections give fans a bit of an indicator on what teams might do in free agency. And we can always connect some of the predictions to reports and rumors that are already out there. So, it’s no surprise that in MLBTR annual top-50 free agents and predictions article, we see the Cubs linked to a bunch of players including shortstop Dansby Swanson.

That’s the biggest name the Cubs are predicted to sign and it’s not just one writer saying it either, it’s three!

Just a little background first from Steve Adams of MLBTR.

I took the lead on this year’s Top 50, though I did with with extensive input, exhaustive conversation and spirited debates from MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald. For the second straight season, we’ll each be making individual team picks rather than going with one, universal “MLBTR staff pick” for each player’s ultimate landing spot. Contract predictions were still agreed upon collaboratively, although there are certainly players where the MLBTR team was not in consensus as to what prediction to put forth.

Dansby Swanson to Cubs: 7 years, $154 million

OK, so in this list Swanson is ranked as the fifth-best free agent and is projected to sign a seven-year, $154 million contract. That’s an average annual value of $22 million. Swanson will be 29-years-old at the start of the 2023 season.

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Adams, along with Anthony Franco and Tim Dierkes all picked the Cubs to sign Swanson, while Darragh McDonald thinks the Twins will sign him.

Via MLBTR.

Granted, by measure of wRC+, Swanson has “only” been nine percent better than league-average in that three-year span (though 16% in 2022 alone). But, for a player who provides plenty of baserunning value and has been considered anywhere from a plus to an elite defender at shortstop, that’s plenty of bat. Swanson’s 2022 season, in particular, was sensational in the eyes of DRS (9) and OAA (20). Statcast has been particularly bullish on Swanson’s defense, ranking him 13th among all big leaguers in OAA (38) and 15th in Runs Above Average (28) since 2018.

Swanson did receive the qualifying offer from the Braves that he will eventually reject. If the Cubs do sign Swanson, or any other free agent that was given the QO then they’ll have to give up a draft pick and some bonus pool money.

Here are the penalties for signing a player with the qualifying offer:

2nd/5th-round picks + $1M int'l: BOS, LAD, NYM, NYY, PHI, SDP

2nd + $500K int'l: ATL, CHC, HOU, LAA, SFG, STL, TOR

3rd: ARI, BAL, CIN, CLE, CWS, COL, DET, KCR, MIA, MIL, MIN, OAK, PIT, SEA, TBR, TEX, WSH

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 11, 2022

The Cubs probably aren’t worried about that as they were before, seeing as the farm system has become much deeper and their draft pick is worse than this past year’s. Plus, they’ll get some compensation back once Willson Contreras signs elsewhere this offseason. Contreras along with 13 other players were officially given the qualifying offer on Thursday.

All right, so we know that the Cubs are obviously interested in the free agent shortstops. The tough part is that the team has also been pushing the narrative that they don’t want to sign players to really long contracts, more than six years. But again, there have been reports that they’re interested in Trea Turner and they’ve already met with Scott Boras to talk about Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts. But we haven’t really seen any talk about the Cubs and Swanson.

So yeah, having three baseball writers predict Swanson to the Cubs is shocking, but maybe they’re hearing something we’re not? You do have to call out the contract though because again there’s no way the Cubs are signing Swanson to a seven-year deal. I mean, if they’re balking at the idea of signing the other shortstops to that long of a contract, then they’re definitely not doing it for Swanson.

I’ve already shared my thoughts on Swanson on the Pinwheels And Ivy Podcast. I’ve been kind of harsh and I’ll take some of those opinions back. If the Cubs sign Swanson, I’ll be more than fine with it. However, he clearly is the fourth-best option out of the free agent class, so I’d be slightly disappointed that they settled. It’s the bat. I don’t trust that 2022 Dansby Swanson is what we’ll get for the next 4-5 years. But hey, maybe he is a late bloomer like Marcus Semien.

MLBTR also had the following predictions for the Cubs.

Kodai Senga: 5 years, $75 million

If I had to bet on one free agent the Cubs sign, it’d be Kodai Senga. Do it, Jed. The Cubs are interested in Senga and maybe they’re even favorites to sign him?

Josh Bell: 4 years, $64 million

Solid backup plan to what seems to be their top first base target in José Abreu. The contract prediction is a little high for my liking. The Cubs are reportedly planning to meet with Bell.

Sean Manaea: 4 years, $52 million

The left-handed starting pitcher was solid with the Oakland A’s since making his MLB debut in 2016. He had a 3.91 ERA in 179.1 innings last year, but then was a disaster with the Padres in 2022. The Cubs are in need of starting pitching, so this wouldn’t be a surprise. It could be a good signing if Manaea goes back to form, but if not it could get rough being stuck with that money.

Andrew Heaney: 3 years, $42 million

He was good with the Dodgers in 2022 – 3.10 ERA in 72.2 innings. Exciting right? Before that the last time the 31-year-old had an era below four was in 2015. Pass.