It isn’t a fun time for Matt Nagy right now. He came into 2021 with such optimism. George McCaskey, despite severe backlash from Chicago Bears fans and media, had decided to keep him for another year as head coach. A few months later, the team managed to land his premier choice at quarterback with Justin Fields. Things were looking up. Then, after a 3-2 start, the wheels came off. Nagy has lost six of his last seven games, watching the season and perhaps his coaching career crumble.
While the loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday was hardly a surprise, it didn’t stop people from taking their shots at the head coach whenever warranted. While most focused on the continued ineptitude of his offense and the persistent lack of team discipline, it was one key decision in the first half that may sum up how bad it’s gotten. With 1:21 left in the 2nd quarter and trailing 21-7, the Bears faced 4th and 2 from the Cardinals’ 49-yard line. One would think given the season and his job was on the line, a sane man would go for it.
Nagy punted.
Harvard graduate and punt expert Andrew Shackelford, creator of the Surrender Index, called that decision one of the most cowardly seen in the NFL going back over 20 years.
CHI decided to punt to ARI from the ARI 49* on 4th & 2* with 1:10 remaining in the 2nd while losing 7 to 21.
With a Surrender Index of 7.47, this punt ranks at the 92nd percentile of cowardly punts of the 2021 season, and the 89th percentile of all punts since 1999.
— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) December 5, 2021
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*CHI committed a (likely intentional) delay of game penalty, moving the play from 4th & 2 at the ARI 49 to 4th & 7 at the CHI 46.
If this penalty was in fact unintentional, the Surrender Index would be 2.13, ranking at the 67th percentile of the 2021 season.
— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) December 5, 2021
Everything about that call made no sense. Not just because of the state of the season where this game demanded an all-or-nothing mindset. It also baffled people because Nagy had literally gone for it on 4th down earlier in the same quarter. The Bears attempted and converted a 4th and 8. That eventually ended in a David Montgomery touchdown.
What made that 4th and 2 anymore daunting? Especially given how well Montgomery was playing up to that point. He finished the game with 90 yards on 21 carries and was a nightmare to bring down for the Cardinals’ defense. Either give him the ball or run a play action. Either play had a strong likelihood of working. Instead, Nagy opted to just go into halftime. Chicago never got close again.
Matt Nagy talks a big game but rarely backs it up
That will likely be written on his epitaph after he’s fired next month. A man who made big promises but rarely delivered. He promised constant aggression in everything the Bears do. This was true in 2018. That is part of what made that year so much fun. Then somewhere along the way, the man lost his nerve. The trick plays and the willingness to gamble seemed to fizzle out like a fireworks fuse in a rainstorm.
It is honestly depressing more than anything. The high pressure of the job seemed to get to him after that loss in the playoffs to Philadelphia. Matt Nagy never felt like the same head coach after it. The offense lost its swagger and never recovered it. Once the defense slowly started declining, his deficiencies became exposed.
How often will he lament decisions like that one Sunday?
All the things he could’ve and should’ve done differently. This is all but certain to be the only head coaching job Nagy will ever get in the NFL. Amazing to think about considering he was Coach of the Year his first season. This is how demanding the league is. It will make you or break you. Only the strong survive.
