Everybody who managed to stay awake in business class during high school at least has a passing knowledge of “supply and demand.” The basic definition is this: the amount of a commodity, product, or service available and the desire of buyers for it, considered as factors regulating its price. In other words if supply is high and demand is low, the price of something goes down. If demand is high and supply is low, the price goes up.
What does this have to do with the Bears? It’s like this. One must examine the Bears primary needs and what they are most likely to take in the first round. Presuming they don’t trade down, which is unlikely anyway, it’s down to them either taking a top defensive prospect or a quarterback. The general consensus is there is no wide receiver, tight end or offensive tackle worth a top five pick in this class and the team doesn’t need a running back.
Thus it’s time to insert that lesson of supply and demand. Below is a table. On it are listed every position the Bears are likely to consider at #3 overall and how many prospects make it into the top 100 rankings at those positions. Why the top 100? Generally it’s believed NFL starters occupy that range, which encompasses the first three rounds of the draft. There are exceptions but it still offers a fair barometer. Keep in mind these numbers are based off of researching big boards of multiple draft experts from ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL.com and B/R.
| Position | Top 100 prospects |
| QB | 5 |
| DL/EDGE | 29 |
| CB | 16 |
| S | 9 |
So what does the table reflect? Quite simple. The supply of top defensive prospects is each higher than the quarterbacks. From the Bears’ perspective, one can just say the demand for each is equal. Therefor the economic application says if they want to get a quality quarterback out of this draft, they have to pay top dollar for one because the supply is lowest. Dollars in this sense are draft picks, i.e. a first round draft pick. The table clearly indicates they can fill their defensive needs with starting talent later on.
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Many experts have continued to insist that the Bears are very much still in the market to draft a quarterback high. Matt Miller of Bleacher Report reiterated that again it his recent scouting notebook.
“Mike Glennon’s signing doesn’t change anything. The Bears could still draft a quarterback in the first two rounds.”
This was reinforced when the team brought their entire top brass, including the quarterbacks coach to the Clemson pro day to observe Deshaun Watson.
Bears contingent here at Clemson's pro day includes Ryan Pace, John Fox, Dowell Loggains, Dave Ragone.
— Dan Wiederer (@danwiederer) March 16, 2017
Ryan Pace has not drafted a quarterback yet in his tenure as GM of the Bears. He has the highest pick a man in his position has held since 1972 for this franchise. The last time somebody was that close, Jerry Angelo passed on Aaron Rodgers for Cedric Benson (#4 overall in 2005). There aren’t many names in this 2017 class who look like they can be stars. Thus the economic imperative is clear.
If Pace wants that quarterback he can build a team around, he’ll have to pay the high price to get him. Odds are strong that Chicago will have their pick of all the names on the board at #3. One can’t ask for a better chance than this.
