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More Realistic Free Agent Predictions For The Cubs

By
Aldo Soto
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Photo by Kim Klement of USA Today

Options have been picked up, players have been bought out of their contracts, qualifying offers have been made and even though it’s getting colder outside the hot stove is starting to heat up. The Chicago Cubs have already made a couple minor moves to their 40-man roster, and on Monday they also extended qualifying offers to Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. Once again, we have more predictions to look at and this time a little more realistic for the Cubs.

Last week MLB Trade Rumors had their list with a wild Yu Darvish deal and now MLB.com’s Jim Duquette’s has his list of the top-25 free agents and where he thinks they’ll sign and for how much.

The obvious need for the Cubs is pitching, both for the rotation, as Arrieta is a free agent and John Lackey is heading toward retirement, and the bullpen. Duquette’s list does have one pitcher re-signing with the Cubs, but it’s not Arrieta. The MLB columnist has Wade Davis coming back to the North Side in 2018.

6. Wade Davis, 32, RHP
After a record-breaking 2016 free-agent class for relievers in terms of money spent, Davis will now get his turn to earn top dollar as the best closer on the market. He was virtually unflappable in Chicago, recording 32 saves with a 2.30 ERA. While his walk rate was the highest of his career (4.3 BB/9), Davis posted a strong 12.1 K/9 rate and stayed healthy for the whole season, lessening concerns after a pair of disabled-list stints in 2016. His deal this offseason should be similar to Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62 million contract from a year ago.

Interested teams: Cubs, Twins, Phillies, among others
Duquette’s prediction: Cubs

Davis, 32, only had one blown save in 2017 for the Cubs, but I think we can all agree that he wasn’t as dominant as some of his numbers say. The control was bad and horrible at times, but he got away with it for most of the season, obviously only blowing one game in September. The Cubs aren’t in a great position here, as they don’t have a closer on their roster, so they have to sign someone. Do they think Davis can get back to his previous form? In a dream world, I’d prefer a front-loaded contract, where the majority of the money comes in the first three years. So, it mostly turns into a three-year deal, while the fourth year is whatever, at maybe less than $10 million. That’s my dream world and not reality. I’m becoming more convinced that the Cubs won’t be willing to make that commitment to Davis.

Maybe a hometown (I know it’s not his hometown) discount? We’ll see.

However, Duquette’s second Cubs prediction does make a lot of sense and it’s not the first time the name has been connected to the Cubs.

12. Alex Cobb, 30, RHP
After posting a 3.66 ERA over a career-high 179 1/3 innings in 2017, Cobb enters free agency at the perfect time. The right-hander got stronger as the year progressed, recording a 3.14 ERA in his final 12 starts. With a track record of success in the AL East, look for Cobb to command a deal comparable to Lynn’s.

For reference, he has Lance Lynn at five years for $80 million.

The Cubs have been interested in starting pitcher Alex Cobb since at least this past spring training. The 30-year-old has spent his entire career with the Tampa Bay Rays and now there’s another connection that makes him signing with the Cubs even more plausible. Jim Hickey, who was his pitching coach in Tampa Bay, is going to be the Cubs pitching coach. 

As nice as Cobb’s career 3.50 ERA looks there is the concern that he had Tommy John Surgery and missed all of the 2015 season. He came back in September 2016, started five games and was bad, yielding a 8.59 ERA in 22 innings. However, he did pitch well in 2017, recording a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Yet, the 179.1 innings pitched this past year was a career high. He’s never gotten to 200 innings in a season and hasn’t started more than 29 games in a season either. That career high in starts also came in 2017.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted his contract at four years, $48 million, which is way different than five years, $80 million that Duquette predicts. With Arrieta most likely heading elsewhere, getting a guy like Cobb or Lynn for about $14-16 million per season is fine, but again the years might the determining factor on who the Cubs end up signing.

See the full list here. Who do you want the Cubs to go after and for how much?

Jordan Howard Just Surpassed the G.O.A.T In Something Else

By
Erik Lambert
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jordan howard and walter payton
Credit: Chicago Bears

Jordan Howard and Walter Payton actually have a lot in common. Both are southern boys. Payton was born in Mississippi, Howard in Alabama. They broke into college football at somewhat obscure programs. Both have the number four on their jerseys and started their NFL careers at 21-years old. Each lost their father at a young age.

Yet even then no self-respecting Chicago Bears fan would dare compare Howard to arguably the greatest football player of all-time.

Payton was a #4 overall pick. He’s an MVP and retired as the all-time leading rusher in NFL history. He’s also fourth on the Bears career receiving list. The man was a sports icon. It’s not fair to even mention Howard in the same breath, right? Thing is little by little it’s becoming harder to make that statement.

Already the 22-year old surpassed Sweetness with the best rookie season in Bears history of 1,313 yards. Payton had 679 his rookie year. Of course it’s going to take a lot more than that to convince anybody of how good Howard actually is. So here it goes.

Jordan Howard and Walter Payton comparison drawing closer

For a guy who isn’t in Payton’s league, Howard sure is knocking out team records at a fast clip. He needed five fewer games to break that 100-yard mark. At present he’s on course to post 1,324 yards and eight touchdowns. Both would top what he did in 2016. It would push him over the 2,500-yard mark, something Payton didn’t accomplish until his third season.

Now it’s a long ways to go before we can talk about Howard being in that league. There have been plenty of great backs in Chicago since Payton but none even sniffed those heights. The man was in a class by himself. Still there’s just something about Howard. He’s sturdy, dependable, and better than people give him credit for.

Maybe a few years from now they will realize how big of a steal the Bears got last year.

Bears Might Be Picking From Dry Coaching Pool in 2018

By
Erik Lambert
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carson wentz

The Chicago Bears have a terrible reputation when it comes to timing. They always seem like they’re a year too early or a year too later on the most vital team decisions. In regards to quarterbacks they took Jim McMahon in 1982. A year later they could’ve had Jim Kelly or Dan Marino. In the matter of premium offensive coaches they could’ve had Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan. Instead they chose to keep John Fox for another year.

McVay is 6-2 and his quarterback is heading towards a Pro Bowl. Fox is 3-5 and his quarterback hasn’t reached 200 yards passing in any of his four games this season. There is a growing belief that GM Ryan Pace could look to make a change next January. One aimed towards making Mitch Trubisky a success like what the Rams and Eagles have done.

There’s just one problem A glance ahead to the available crop of names in 2018 doesn’t look nearly as enticing as it did in 2016. There is no McVay or Shanahan. Or in Pace’s mind there may not be a Sean Payton. This could present a huge challenge for the franchise.

Chicago Bears list of options is riddled with question marks

This isn’t to say the right man for the job isn’t out there. To borrow a phrase from crab fishermen, there don’t appear to be many “keepers” out there. Not at present. If one were to go through the list of viable offensive candidates, there almost always appears to be a problem with them.

Frank Reich (Philadelphia Eagles)

His offense is the hottest in the NFL right now, so naturally Reich is a big name. He’s been a coordinator for a few years with decent success. On top of that he is a former backup QB himself, in fact maybe the greatest of all-time. At the same time he’ll be 56-years old in December. That means he’ll be 57 by the end of his first year with Trubisky. That is awfully old for a guy to get his first head coaching job, especially since he’s only been coaching since 2008.

Matt Lafleur (Los Angeles Rams)

He has deep connections to both McVay and Shanahan with loads of success as a quarterbacks coach. He’s in his first year ever as an offensive coordinator and it’s hard to argue with the results. The Rams are on pace for over 500 points. So how much of that is him and how much is McVay? Lafleur isn’t the one who calls plays. This makes it difficult to determine the extent of impact he has on the actual success of the offense.

Josh McDaniels (New England Patriots)

In terms of experience this is probably the candidate to beat. McDaniels has two Super Bowl rings as a coordinator and a reputation for being one of the deadliest play callers in the league. He also brings prior head coaching experience, though most of that was ugly in Denver. So what’s the problem? Strong hints coming out of New England suggest McDaniels aims to stay there and take over for Bill Belichick whenever he retires. On top of that it’s believed any job he takes would require significant control over personnel decisions. Last but not least? As mentioned earlier he was a disaster in Denver, being fired 12 games into his second season.

Matt Nagy (Kansas City Chiefs)

Given the success of Doug Pederson in Philadelphia, it makes perfect sense teams would be looking at the next Andy Reid disciple in Kansas City. That is Nagy. He too is a former quarterback, so he understands how to coach the position. Alex Smith has had the best stretch of his career under his watch. However, like Lafleur he hasn’t been a coordinator for long (in second season) and doesn’t call plays. This makes it difficult to gauge how prepared he is to run his own team.

Pete Carmichael Jr. (New Orleans Saints)

A longtime Pace connection. Pete Carmichael Jr. has been offensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints since 2009 and with the team since 2006. Drew Brees’ stretch of greatest career success may be highlighted by Payton, but Carmichael is right there as well. He doesn’t call the plays but none of his offenses have ranked lower than sixth in nine seasons. The red flag with him is the utter lack of interest from teams for a head coaching job up to this point. Given how much sustained success he’s had, the inability to even be mentioned in head coaching conversations raises serious questions.

John Morton (New York Jets)

He’s the hot ticket of late. Why? Mostly because, as Tarik Cohen loves to put it, “He makes chicken salad out of chicken s**t.” The New York Jets handed him a 38-year old journeyman quarterback, an offensive roster of old or depleted positions and told to be productive. Somehow Morton has. Josh McCown is having the second-best season of his career and the Jets are 4-5. So why hesitation? This is Morton’s first year as an offensive coordinator. It seems dangerously premature to hand him an entire team so soon after getting that promotion.

Benny The Bull And Tommy Hawk Are First-Ballot Hall Of Famers

By
Marc-Louis Paprzyca
-

The Mascot Hall Of Fame (MHOF) is becoming a real thing and Benny the Bull and Tommy Hawk have been elected to the inaugural class. Chicago’s two favorite mascots were selected along with the Penn State Nittany Lion and the Kansas City Royal’s Sluggerr for their impacts on their organizations and fans.

Benny and Tommy met the qualifying criteria to be eligible for the MHOF and then went through a three step voting process. It began with a fan vote, then moved onto votes from MHOF Lifetime Voting Members and Executive Committee Members.

Their official induction will take place at the free-standing MHOF in Whiting, Indiana upon completion in 2018. The 25,000 square foot building is only 30 minutes from Chicago and will include interactive exhibits, activities and events for tons of family fun.

I’ve been very excited about the MHOF since I heard about it about a year ago. Benny is a very deserving honoree for the first class as one of the longest-tenured mascots in all of sports. Tommy is newer to the mascot game but both fit the mold of great mascots.

As the Mascot Hall Of Fame states in their press release, “They have dedicated themselves to becoming positive role models within their individual communities, with their wacky antics and ability to create a smile.“

Follow @Pappy_Hour on Twitter for more Chicago sports news and musings.

Cubs Add Former 2nd Round Pick To Roster

By
Aldo Soto
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Apr 27, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Cory Mazzoni (43) pitches during the ninth inning against the Houston Astros at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs made a few roster moves on Monday, as they claimed another pitcher off waivers. Last week it was 23-year-old lefty Randy Rosario from the Minnesota Twins. This time it’s former second-round draft pick Cory Mazzoni from the San Diego Padres.

Mazzoni, 28, was originally drafted by the New York Mets in 2011.

The right-handed pitcher made his MLB debut with the Padres in 2015, but hasn’t had much major league experience. Mazzoni has a total of 16.2 innings pitched in the Majors, last appearing as a September call up in 2017, pitching eight innings with San Diego.

He had shoulder surgery prior to the 2016 season, so as you might guess the Cubs are simply taking a chance here to see if Mazzoni can get back to the level that made him a high draft pick. After returning back from the surgery, Mazzoni pitched extremely well at Triple-A in 2017, although it was a small sample size. The righty had a 0.89 ERA in 20.1 innings, with 31 strikeouts and three walks. Overall in 2017 in the minors, Mazzoni had a 0.59 ERA in 30.1 innings. The 28-year-old has pitched a total of 366 innings in the minors, with a 3.79 ERA.

The Cubs also assigned outfielder Leonys Martin to Triple-A.

So, Martin is now off the Cubs 40-man roster.

Meanwhile, right-handed pitcher Matt Carasiti, 26, pitched well for the Cubs after they acquired him from the Colorado Rockies. In 2017, Carasiti had a 3.26 ERA in 49.2 innings.

On Monday, the Cubs also extended qualifying offers to Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. You can read all about that below.

Cubs Make Qualifying Offers To Jake Arrieta And Wade Davis

Cubs Make Qualifying Offers To Jake Arrieta And Wade Davis

By
Aldo Soto
-
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have officially given qualifying offers to starting pitcher Jake Arrieta and closer Wade Davis.

This offseason’s qualifying offer is worth $17.4 million. That figure comes from the mean salary of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB.

Arrieta and Davis have until Nov. 16, to either accept or decline the qualifying offer from the Cubs. Obviously if they accept, they’ll be under contract for the 2018 season at the $17.4 million salary. If not, they’ll be made available for every team in MLB.

Anyway, the chances of Arrieta and Davis accepting the offers are slim to no chance in hell. Well, more so in the case of Arrieta, considering he’s one of the two best starting pitchers available this offseason. Davis, 32-years-old, won’t get more than the $17.4 million per year on any deal he signs, so there’s maybe a slight chance he accepts. However, he’ll most likely seek out some long-term security.

For reference, the biggest contracts for closers are:

  1. Aroldis Chapman: 5 years, $86 million
  2. Kenley Jansen: 5 years, $80 million
  3. Mark Melancon: 4 years, $62 million

Meanwhile, Arrieta will also be 32-years-old for the 2018 season, and this will be his last chance to get his big payday. Despite a slow beginning to his 2017 season, Arrieta bounced back and with a few other starting pitchers choosing not to opt out of their contracts, Arrieta is in line to get big offers.

The upside, the Cubs could receive a few extra picks in the 2018 draft. Here’s a breakdown of how that could play out, depending where Davis and Arrieta sign, if they do indeed sign elsewhere.

  • If the free agent signs an offer worth more than $50 million of total value AND the team he came from receives revenue sharing, that team will get a compensatory draft pick after the first round ends. If a team receives revenue sharing but the deal is worth less than $50 million, that picks comes after Competitive Balance Round B (which occurs directly after the second round).
  • If the team that loses a free agent after extending a qualifying offer pays the luxury tax, their compensation pick will come after the fourth round is over. If they didn’t, and also didn’t receive revenue sharing, that pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B.

Let the offseason hot stove action begin!

John Fox Is Failing In Chicago Because He Doesn’t Get Chicago

By
Erik Lambert
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john fox
GREENBAY, WI - OCTOBER 20: Head coach John Fox of the Chicago Bears looks on against the Green Bay Packers in the second quarter at Lambeau Field on October 20, 2016 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

All head coaches like to say that every game on an NFL schedule is the same. The opponent doesn’t matter. They’re all the same. Except that’s not true at all. All opponents are not created equal in this league. Nowhere is it truer than between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. Anybody who thinks other games mean as much as this one to Bears fans needs to consider following another sport. Beating the Packers isn’t just about bragging rights. It can often set the tone for an entire year. John Fox has not learned this.

Fox is an old school coach who spent time with the Panthers and Broncos. Those two franchises are good, but they don’t have anywhere close to the history that Chicago does. None of their rivalries can touch what the Bears and Packers have. To Fox this coming week is just another game they have to win, and that’s the problem.

Look back at the most successful Bears head coaches of the Super Bowl era. Lovie Smith declared the first objective when he took over was beat Green Bay. Mike Ditka had been a Bears player for years. He grew up hating the Packers since he arrived in the NFL. Meanwhile guys like Dave Wannstedt, Dick Jauron and Marc Trestman? They never got it.

John Fox inability to solve Packers problem isn’t being ignored

People love to remember the Thanksgiving night miracle in 2015 when the Bears shocked the Packers at Lambeau Field. Thing is Fox is 0-4 in the other games. Amazing as it sounds that victory remains the high point of his coaching tenure in Chicago. Not a single person would dispute it.

How’s this for a stat then? Every year a head coach since Ditka has been fired by the Bears, it involved back-to-back defeats against the Packers.

Marc Trestman (2014)
  • Lost 38-17
  • Lost 55-14
Lovie Smith (2012)
  • Lost 23-10
  • Lost 21-13
Dick Jauron (2003)
  • Lost 38-23
  • Lost 34-21
Dave Wannstedt (1998)
  • Lost 26-20
  • Lost 16-13

That certainly makes this upcoming Sunday a huge one for Fox. So many sub plots are in play. He’s 0-2 after the bye week so far in his tenure. He’s 1-4 against the Packers and now is in danger of losing to them for the third-straight year at home. If that happens with Green Bay not having Aaron Rodgers under center? Suffice to say the odds of Fox holding onto his job could vanish.

Chicago would fall to 3-6 and 0-3 in the division. Their playoff hopes will be all but dead and having been swept by the Packers for the fourth time in six seasons.

David Nwaba Sidelined 2-4 Weeks

By
Matthew Milakovich
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Depending on what your opinions are regarding how the Bulls should handle this season, there’s both good and/or bad news out of the Bulls camp today.

1.) Bobby Portis returns today after serving the suspension he earned from molly-whopping Nikola Mirotic in the face.

And…

2.) K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune is reporting David Nwaba will be sidelined two to four weeks due to a “severe” ankle sprain suffered in an OT loss to the Pelicans Saturday night.

Unfortunate news for Nwaba, considering he had been playing quite well (albeit in a small sample size of 3 starts up until his injury) since being inserted into the starting lineup.

Good news is (or bad if you’re rooting for the Bulls to tank) Nwaba isn’t on crutches and should return on schedule.

“He’s off the crutches now and in a walking boot,” Hoiberg said. “He sprained it pretty good.”

Paul Zipser will take Nwaba’s place in the starting lineup with Denzel Valentine serving as backup until Nwaba returns.

Stop Assuming Bears Will Beat the Packers Next Week

By
Erik Lambert
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chicago bears playoffs

It’s hard to understand where the sudden rush of confidence comes from for Chicago Bears fans at times. Especially in regards to the Green Bay Packers. Here’s a rival they’ve beaten three times since 2010. In case you need a greater explanation, that’s a record of 3-13. It’s little wonder people have become spooked every time the Bears play them.

So again where is all this bravado coming from? The idea that Chicago will handle their business at Soldier Field next Sunday and dismiss Green Bay. Smart money says it has everything to do with the fact Aaron Rodgers won’t play. Most have seen him as the sole reason the Packers have owned the rivalry to such an extent for almost a decade.

Truth be told it’s not that simple. Sure Rodgers is a key part of it but have people forgotten how ineffective the Bears have been against the Packers defense over that span? Here’s another stat for you. In the 16 games the Bears have played against them since 2010, they’ve turned it over 33 times. They’ve also scored 20 or more points just six times.

Chicago Bears futility tied to their lack of discipline

How’s this for a further twist on the stats? Since 2000 the Bears are 11-25 against the Packers. People like to say that has everything to do with the quarterback advantages Green Bay enjoys. However, here’s something most people don’t know. Over that same span Chicago is a perfect 4-0 against them when they don’t turn the ball over. In truth it’s been the Packers defense deciding outcomes as often as Rodgers or Favre have.

This is why it’s puzzling. Yes Rodgers is out but this is still the Packers defense and still their good coaching staff. Need people be reminded that John Fox is 0-2 coming out of the bye week so far in his time with the Bears? Or perhaps the fact they haven’t beaten the Packers in Chicago for seven years?

It’s okay to think the Bears have a good chance to win. Yet to assume they already have it locked up? That is not wise. This offense is still ranked dead last throwing the football. Their coaching staff still shows an appalling inability to keep players from making critical mistakes. The kinds of mistakes teams used to winning know how to exploit.

Yes the Bears defense is playing better. Yes they can run the ball well. Problem is it takes more than that to conquer Green Bay, even when they’re wounded. Don’t forget the last time they played the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Josh McCown had to throw for 272 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay ran the ball for 190 yards in that game.

That team finds a way to stay competitive. Chicago best remember that. Hubris has gotten them in trouble before.

Solution To Bears Offensive Problems Set For 2018 Return

By
Erik Lambert
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gary kubiak chicago bears

A Gary Kubiak Chicago Bears connection wasn’t something fans thought much about most of this year. Understandable. The veteran former head coach has spent 2017 at home in retirement. Somewhat hard to believe give he’s only 56-years old and was one year removed from a Super Bowl championship in 2016.

So why did he walk away? The general belief is health concerns. Kubiak has a history of heart conditions and the rigors of being a head coach were wearing on him, similar to how they did in Houston as well. He just didn’t want to deal with the stress anymore. At the same time there was a small undercurrent.

The belief was that after a break he might consider returning. Not as a head coach of course. As an offensive coordinator. That job comes with far fewer demands on both mind and body. It’s his area of expertise and a position he’s held a combined 12 seasons. It’s second nature to him by this point. Now belief is growing he might make a comeback next year.

Gary Kubiak Chicago Bears move could solve a huge problem

As things stand there is immense dissatisfaction regarding the makeup and execution of the Bears offense. Dowell Loggains is in his second year running the show. Eight games into the season and his scheme looks nothing like the one from last year. The shotgun runs, the bunch formations, the creative scheming is all missing.

People are trying to blame it on lack of adequate personnel. There’s truth in that but the inability to adjust is a big problem. Loggains has remained predictable and it’s hurting the development of rookie Mitch Trubisky. If the Bears are looking at a change in a few months, Kubiak might be a call they can make.

“Former Super Bowl-winning coach Gary Kubiak retired from the sidelines after the 2016 season due to mounting health concerns, but several sources close to him believe the esteemed coach will consider running an NFL offense in 2018 if the right opportunity arose. Several of Kubiak’s coaching assistants believe a return is hardly out of the question, and, given the dearth of coordinator candidates around the league, he would surely be in demand.

The rigors of head coaching and the stress and strain from being the daily face of the franchise are not appealing to him at this point, but the opportunity to work with the right quarterback and help an offense for a contending team would have allure, the sources maintain.”

Tricky part is whether the Bears are right “situation”

As always luring a big name like Kubiak will require two things. Money and a favorable situation for him to excel. From a roster standpoint Chicago has quite an argument. Trubisky is a #2 overall pick with the athleticism and arm to run the type of offense Kubiak champions. That means lots of running the ball and utilizing bootleg play action.

Keep in mind this guy made a Pro Bowler out of Justin Forsett and Arian Foster. Both were widely overlooked by most teams. Imagine what he’d be able to do with Jordan Howard.

He also got Pro Bowls out of quarterbacks too. Brian Griese, Jake Plummer and Matt Schaub are some of the names on that list. Whenever he had a talent like John Elway and Peyton Manning, even in their twilight years, he won championships. Joe Flacco had the highest touchdown passes (27) and second-highest QB rating (91.0) during his lone season with Kubiak in Baltimore.

His offense has ranked outside the top 10 just three times out of 12 seasons. This man knows how to create a successful unit, often with unheralded players. The question is can they get him? With John Fox’s future in doubt that might prove difficult. Extending him might help, or perhaps even promoting Vic Fangio in his place.

Fangio’s defense with Kubiak’s offense? That would be a devastating combination.

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