For weeks, the prevailing view among top insiders, both national and local, was that the Chicago Bears would focus on defense in the 1st round of the draft. It made sense. The unit had finished 29th in total yards for the season, looking weak when they weren’t forcing turnovers. If the Bears wanted to take the next step, they’d have to get that side of the ball in order. The franchise hasn’t spent a 1st-round pick on defense since 2018, when they selected Roquan Smith. It feels like long overdue for that to change.

However, something has shifted over the past week. News began to surface that the Bears were putting in serious effort to evaluate the top offensive tackles in this class. People have wondered what is spearheading such a late pivot in the process. Is head coach Ben Johnson determined to solve the position once and for all? Is the team not liking the updates they’re getting about Ozzy Trapilo’s knee injury? Those are parts of it, but another factor has sparked the change.

Sources told SM that the team has a pretty good idea of what defensive line options they’ll have at 25th overall and aren’t enthusiastic about it.

The Chicago Bears are starting to see how the board is likely to unfold.

One thing apparent to many is that there will be a run on pass rushers at some point. Peter Schrager of ESPN revealed he believes as many as five edge rushers will be gone by the time the Bears go on the clock. Not only that, but the opinion of the incoming defensive tackle class has sagged considerably in the past month. Some believe only one might go in the 1st round, and that player is Kayden McDonald of Ohio State. Considering he’s a nose tackle, it doesn’t feel like somebody the Bears would get excited about.

By contrast, experts see a strong cluster of offensive tackles in this class who will probably go somewhere in the 15-30 range. It isn’t crazy to think that a couple of them will be available when the Bears are on the clock. They’ve already met with Max Iheanachor of Arizona State and Caleb Lomu of Utah. Blake Miller of Clemson is another name to watch. All three would be legitimate fits in Johnson’s offense. No doubt the team is doing extra homework to find out who fits their culture the best.

The Bears’ plan is taking shape.

If things keep trending in this direction, it’s pretty clear what they plan to do. While the options at #25 on defense aren’t great, that changes in the 2nd round. Edge rusher is one of the deepest in the draft. Defensive tackles should start coming off the board, and there will be plenty of good safeties, linebackers, and cornerbacks. Chicago has two 2nd round picks. They can easily save both of them for that side of the ball, giving Dennis Allen two legitimate talents to work with.

Meanwhile, Coach Johnson finally gets that sense of clarity at left tackle that he’s been chasing for over a year. While Braxton Jones and Jedrick Wills will compete for the job, whoever they choose in the 1st round will be considered the heir apparent at some point. It’s not a bad plan, and once again shows the Chicago Bears’ willingness to shift direction if they sense things aren’t unfolding as they hope. It happened last year when the left tackles and Ashton Jeanty went early. They opted for Colston Loveland, which worked out pretty well.

It is one thing to hear opinions and projections from draft experts in the media. That isn’t to say guys haven’t put in work. Yet they just don’t have any experience working inside the league or access to its resources. It is entirely another when you see how a former general manager would do it. That is what Ran Carthon did for the Chicago Bears on CBS Sports. A former NFL safety, he entered the scouting ranks in 2008 with Atlanta and climbed his way up the ranks from there. Carthon enjoyed significant success with the San Francisco 49ers under John Lynch as a personnel director, earning him the general manager position in Tennessee.

Sadly, his tenure lasted only two years, as it was beset by controversies and many losses. Even so, his brief time there saw him make some solid additions to the roster, headlined by left tackle JC Latham and quarterback Cam Ward. He also found three intriguing pass catchers in Gunnar Helm, Elic Ayomanor, and Chimere Dike. While his time in Tennessee was a major disappointment, it wasn’t due to a poor eye for talent. That is what makes his draft projection for the Bears so interesting. Here is how he sees it playing out.

• 1st Round – T.J. Parker, EDGE, Clemson
• 2nd Round – Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama
• 2nd Round (via BUF) – Jake Golday, LB, Texas Tech
• 3rd Round – Logan Jones, C, Iowa
• 4th Round – Justin Joly, TE, North Carolina State
• 7th Round – Jalen Huskey, S, Maryland
• 7th Round (via CLE) – Vincent Anthony Jr., EDGE, Duke

Ran Carthon actually did pretty well for the Bears.

He starts out with that much-needed edge rusher. Parker is a well-rounded defensive end with size, power, and a violent temperament. His skill as a run defender would appeal to Dennis Allen immediately, and he’s shown flashes of quality as a pass rusher. Then you have Bernard. While he isn’t the most explosive receiver in this class, he is one of the most polished. His combo of precise route-running and strong hands makes him a huge safety blanket on 3rd down. Jake Golday? While Jacob Rodriguez gets all the headlines among the Texas Tech linebackers, Golday is actually more talented. He’s 6’4″, 240 lbs with 4.6 speed, who explodes to the football.

Perhaps the best value pick is Jones in the 3rd round. While not special in any physical way, he’s athletic, smart, and utterly single-minded in his efforts to block guys. Every snap is like the last stand at the Alamo with him. Joly is an undersized but athletic tight end with good hands. His route-running needs improvement, but he could become a dangerous utility weapon if that happens. Huskey has concerns about his speed and quickness. That didn’t stop him from snagging 11 interceptions in three years. Anthony Jr. has great size and length, along with developed pass rush skills. Unfortunately, there are serious questions about his run defense.

The Bears could do a lot worse.

Based on draft opinions from several experts, the team would come away with four players who have a legitimate chance to play immediately. Parker is obvious. Bernard can easily find his way into the slot receiver role. Injuries at linebacker make Golday’s chances easy. Jones may not overtake Garrett Bradbury, but he’d be a lock for their long-term starting job. That is pretty solid work by Ran Carthon. While not an “ideal” scenario, fans should be excited about such a possibility.

Will it go this way? Probably not. Based on what we’ve heard lately, it’s looking more and more like one of two outcomes is the most likely for the Bears. Either they will take an offensive tackle with that 25th overall pick, or they will trade down. The team’s opinion of the defensive options they’ll see at that spot isn’t all that high. Carthon did the best he could with what was available. We can call his projection the floor of what is possible. The goal will be to build on it.

The NFL draft is less than two weeks away. Pro days have concluded. Teams are wrapping up their final pre-draft visits with prospects. Now boards are being set. What fans and media have been trying to do for some time is determine what the Chicago Bears have planned. This is one of the teams that could go in almost any direction. After weeks of believing the team would focus on the defensive line, insiders have begun shifting to other positions based on what they’ve heard. People can’t pin down what general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson want to do.

That is because the real answer is much simpler. SM reached out to people close to the organization, seeking any sort of clarity on what the thinking is inside the building. The reply I got back was short and more than a little noteworthy.

“If they can get out of round one, they will. The people I talk to don’t like this draft early.”

It sure sounds like the Bears’ primary goal is trading down from the 25th pick. This seems to confirm the rumors going through draft circles that there isn’t much of a difference seen between players who will be picked in the 20s and 30s and those picked in the 40s. In such a situation, the smart thing to do is trade down, accumulate assets, and pinpoint value later on.

The Chicago Bears know they’re not one player away.

Salary cap issues this offseason forced them to make some tough roster decisions. D.J. Moore was traded. Tremaine Edmunds was cut. Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, and Nahshon Wright all left in free agency. The only clear starters they brought in were safety Coby Bryant and linebacker Devin Bush. If you look at their depth chart as things stand, you could argue they have at least three starting jobs unaddressed.

• Safety
• Linebacker
• Left tackle

That is without mentioning their situation at edge rusher. Montez Sweat and Austin Booker are the only two viable ones on the roster. Suffice to say, the Bears have several spots that could use help, and currently have just seven picks in this draft.

That isn’t a great margin of error. Moving down for a couple of extra picks would give them some wiggle room, adding some opportunities to land good players. It is a tried-and-true tactic in the draft, provided one can pull it off. That will be the problem. For the Bears to move down, they need two things. One is a team, or two wanting to come up the board, and the other is a player they can dangle as bait. If what people believe about this draft is true, then that second part is a big problem.

Poles is no stranger to this sort of work.

Trading out of the 1st round was something he saw the Kansas City Chiefs do in 2016 firsthand as their director of college scouting. The team flipped the 28th overall pick and a 7th rounder to the San Francisco 49ers for the 37th pick, a 4th round pick, and a 6th round pick. Despite that, they still managed to land Chris Jones in the 2nd round and Tyreek Hill in the 5th round. As always, it all depends on how well you trust your board. We already know Poles isn’t afraid to move down in the 1st. He did it twice in 2023, going from #1 overall to #10. The idea that going from #25 to out of the 1st is much less intimidating.

Can the Chicago Bears find a buyer? That is the challenge facing them. Typically, teams that come up in the bottom of the 1st round are looking for one of three things: a quarterback, an offensive weapon, or an offensive lineman. It is noteworthy that multiple teams picking after the Bears need line help. That might compel a team at the top of the 2nd to jump ahead of them, provided the right player is available. We’ll likely get answers to this question once the Bears go on the clock.

Left tackle is fast becoming the favorite to be the Chicago Bears‘ position of choice with their 25th overall pick in the upcoming draft. You’re starting to see the winds blow in that direction as prominent insiders list it in their mock drafts. The team has met with multiple 1st round options. We already know Ozzy Trapilo likely won’t play this season. Braxton Jones and Jedrick Wills are stopgaps on one-year deals. This team needs a true answer on the roster. Their best chance to get it will be with that 25th pick.

For one, most projections have a cluster of quality prospects being available in that area of the 1st round. Names like Caleb Lomu, Max Iheanachor, and Blake Miller are all possibilities. Perhaps Monroe Freeling or Spencer Fano fall for one reason or another. However, there is a deeper strategy to this than people have considered. It isn’t just about them wanting to settle the left tackle spot. There is a wider strategy involved. One that looks to take full advantage of this draft class’s strengths.

The Chicago Bears can afford to gamble waiting at EDGE.

Sure, it would be great if they finally took one in the 1st round in a decade. The problem is two-fold. For one, the list of options available at #25 isn’t likely to be ideal. Projections have as many as five going in the top 24 picks. Would they really want to take the sixth edge rusher over what could be the third or fourth offensive tackle? Then there is the layout of the class itself. Most experts agree that the deepest position by a comfortable margin is edge rusher. That means teams who wait to take one on day two are still likely to last a capable starter. As many as 12 could go in that range, giving the Bears a prime opportunity to still land a good one.

The Bears appear to be planning to play the board.

This is something general manager Ryan Poles has done quite well in the past. He took advantage of a very deep running back class last year to snag Kyle Monangai in the 7th round. If you don’t think the board is likely to fall your way, then the best thing to do is not force it. Trust the depth of the class and focus your early efforts on thinner positions. Left tackle is one of them. That group dries up fast after the first two rounds. It would be a similar approach to last year. The Chicago Bears grabbed tight end Colston Loveland early and then shifted to wide receiver and offensive tackle in the 2nd round, two deeper positions.

Obviously, the board can bounce in an unexpected way. Certain teams may take players nobody had going that high. In such a case, the Bears must be prepared to pivot from their original plan. If a top edge rusher somehow falls, they will make the pick. However, if things go as expected, then the plan of action is pretty clear. Grab a left tackle on #25 and then shift to the defensive line on day two. The odds would be in their favor with such an approach. Everything depends on how much they trust their scouting.