Don’t look now, but Antony Kay is slowly emerging as one of the Chicago White Sox most reliable starting pitchers.
After a brutal start to the season that saw his ERA balloon up to 6.12 at the end of April, Kay has been nails since the calendar flipped to May.
Since April 27, Kay has gone 3-0 in his last five starts, posting a 1.98 ERA across 27.1 innings. During that stretch, he has worked at least five innings in each outing and allowed two runs or fewer, lowering his season ERA to 3.96 in the process. He has also struck out five batters in four of those starts.
Monday’s outing against the Minnesota Twins was arguably the sharpest he has looked all season. Kay needed just 94 pitches to make it through six innings, holding the Twins offense to just one run on five hits while racking up five punchouts.
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But the biggest key to his success was command. Kay has struggled at times, limiting free passes this season, entering Monday with a 10.4% walk rate. However, the 31-year-old southpaw threw 65% of his pitches for strikes and issued just one walk, marking only the third time this season he has kept his walk total in single digits.
It’s been a notable turnaround for a pitcher who didn’t have much working early in the season. Beyond the command issues, Kay has struggled to miss bats and generate ground balls. Opponents have also been squaring him up regularly, with a 42% hard-hit rate and a .276 expected batting average against him.
But as the season has progressed, so has Kay’s confidence. After spending the previous two years posting strong numbers in Japan, he’s starting to show flashes of that form in Chicago. His velocity is up, and he’s getting hitters to expand the zone more consistently. In fact, his 32.5% chase rate now ranks in the top half of Major League Baseball.
That confidence was on full display vs. the Twins. During the sixth inning, he shook off catcher Drew Romo multiple times and finished the day, striking out two of the final three batters he faced.
“I knew what was working best for me and what was a good strike pitch in those counts, and I think having that conviction is massive,” Kay told reporters after the game.
Of Kay’s six-pitch mix, the fastball remains his primary weapon, but Monday showed the effectiveness of his secondary arsenal. He used his cutter, sweeper, and slider to generate four of his five strikeouts on the day.
His cutter and sweeper have been particularly effective, with opponents hitting just .207 off his cutter while his sweeper has generated a 29% whiff rate. If Kay can continue throwing all six of his pitches with confidence, his strikeout numbers are only going to grow.
The next step for Kay is finding consistency in the first inning. Even amid his May resurgence, the opening frame has remained his biggest hurdle. He carries a 6.00 ERA in the first inning, by far his highest in any inning this season, and two of the seven home runs he has allowed have come in that first frame.
There could be an argument for using an opener in front of him, but Kay has already come out of the bullpen once this season and said that approach disrupted his ability to settle into a normal starter’s routine.
If the White Sox hope to stay in playoff contention, their rotation will have to stabilize. With Erick Fedde struggling and Noah Schultz headed to the injured list with a knee issue, Kay’s continued performance could be a major indicator of how far this team can go.
