MLB free agency has officially started, which means we’ll be flooded with contract predictions, projected deals, and destinations fans love. FanGraphs just released its annual top-50 free agents list, including projected contracts for each player. It’s a solid guide for MLB fans, giving them a barometer to help them understand what to somewhat expect in the offseason. The projections won’t all be spot on, but it’s a good starting point for looking ahead to free agency.
Tarik Skubal, who the Cubs reportedly want badly, is obviously the top free agent this offseason, but as a bit of a surprise, Seiya Suzuki is ranked No. 2 on the top-50 list on FanGraphs. However, this is a weak free-agent class, so Suzuki’s projected market is well within the Cubs’ wheelhouse.
The Cubs Need to Re-Sign Seiya Suzuki
Ever since the Cubs were eliminated from the playoffs, offseason outlook articles have largely indicated the team won’t be willing to pay up for Suzuki, so I’ve been pessimistic, thinking there’s only a remote chance of a reunion. However, the more you think about it, the more it’s hard to see how, as careful as Jed Hoyer has been in free agency, he won’t address the massive holes left in the corner outfield spots. Suzuki and Ian Happ are free agents this offseason, and the duo accounted for 50 of the team’s 220 home runs in 2026.
That is a lot of power to replace, and there’s no convincing anyone that Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez can step in and make up for it. Between the two, Suzuki has been the better bat, and the Cubs should prioritize him no matter how much they need to spend on the pitching staff. As a reminder, the Cubs signed Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract heading into the 2022 season, plus another $14.6 million posting fee to his team in Japan.
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That was a $100 million commitment, and although Suzuki feels that he didn’t live up to expectations, he’s been a top-20 hitter in MLB for the past four years. At 32-years-old, the right fielder can still be productive, and his new contract projection should not deter the Cubs from re-signing him.
Seiya Suzuki Contract Projection
On FanGraphs, Ben Clemens ranked Suzuki as the second-best free agent this offseason. The contract projections are far from back-breaking for the Cubs, who need an impact bat heading into next season.
Seiya Suzuki Contract Projection
Ben Clemens: 4 years, $108 million, $27 million AAV
Median Crowdsource: 4 years, $96 million, $24 million AAV
Suzuki is the best bat available and if all it takes is a four-year contract at less than $30 million per year, then the Cubs need to be all over that.
For comparison, here are the projected deals for other top free-agent outfielders available this offseason.
Randy Arozarena: 3 years, $69 million, $23 million AAV
Ian Happ: 2 years, $30 million, $15 million AAV
Daulton Varsho: 1 year, $14 million
Trent Grisham: 1 year, $14 million
Luis Robert Jr.: 1 year, $14 million
It gets pretty hairy after Randy Arozarena, and as much as Cubs fans might hate it, Happ could end up being the right price range for the Cubs if they let Suzuki slip away.
