The Chicago Bears haven’t yet begun setting their draft board. GM Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson still have free agents, both in-house and outside, to sort through. They also have to attend the scouting combine and pro days. No final decisions are ever made this early. That said, it isn’t difficult to at least gauge the direction the team is going. Based on this past season’s results, most agree the Bears’ needs center on four positions: edge rusher, left tackle, defensive tackle, and safety. Determining which one will be the highest priority is the key to figuring out what they do at the 25th pick in the 1st round.
Most people believe edge rusher is the answer. It isn’t difficult to understand why. Montez Sweat had 10 sacks this year. Nobody else had more than four. Dayo Odeyingbo tore his Achilles. Austin Booker came on late but is still unproven. Dominique Robinson is a free agent. It seems like an obvious position to attack. However, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune warns against ignoring defensive tackle at your own risk.
The Chicago Bears have questions on the interior as well.
Grady Jarrett is in his mid-30s and spent much of the season battling a knee injury. It’s hard to know if he has any juice left. Gervon Dexter had six sacks, which was a career best, but he still hasn’t had a true breakthrough. Andrew Billings is a free agent. Shemar Turner tore his ACL. There are just as many questions at that position as there are at edge rusher. Then you should factor in the man running the show on defense.
Dennis Allen has been a defensive coordinator for a long time. During his extended run with the New Orleans Saints from 2015 through 2024, his team picked two edge rushers and two defensive tackles in the 1st round. He sees great value in both, so the man won’t be inclined to favor one position over the other. It will all depend on which players are available at #25. Early estimates have the class being five to three players ranked as 1st round prospects between edge rushers and defensive tackles. It’s possible that might change after several DTs stood out at the Senior Bowl in Mobile.
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Recent draft history also reveals some startling data.
Since 2015, 25 players selected between the 20th and 30th picks have played defensive line. That is the range the Bears will be picking in. The obvious question is which position, edge or defensive tackle, has the better hit rate. The answer was somewhat shocking. While more edge rushers ended up becoming good players, it came at the cost of far more being selected. Conversely, defensive tackles comprised barely a third of the total names selected, but actually had a better overall hit rate.
| Player selected | Hit? |
| EDGE Bud Dupree | Yes |
| EDGE Shane Ray | No |
| DT Kenny Clark | Yes |
| DT Robert Nkemdiche | No |
| DT Vernon Butler | No |
| EDGE Charles Harris | No |
| EDGE Takkarist McKinley | No |
| EDGE Taco Charlton | No |
| EDGE T.J. Watt | Yes |
| DT Taven Bryan | No |
| EDGE Montez Sweat | Yes |
| DT Jerry Tillery | No |
| EDGE L.J. Collier | No |
| EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson | No |
| EDGE Kwity Paye | No |
| EDGE Payton Turner | No |
| EDGE Gregory Rousseau | Yes |
| DT Devonte Wyatt | Yes |
| EDGE George Karlaftis | Yes |
| DT Mazi Smith | No |
| EDGE Myles Murphy | No |
| DT Bryan Bresee | Yes |
| EDGE Nolan Smith | No |
| EDGE Chop Robinson | No |
| EDGE Darius Robinson | No |
Even Bears history backs this up to a small degree. In the modern era, Chicago has selected a defensive lineman between picks 20 and 30 three times. First was defensive end Dave Gallagher in 1974. He was gone after one season. Next was defensive tackle William Perry in 1985, a cornerstone of those great defenses of the decade and a longtime folk hero in the city. Lastly came Alonzo Spellman in 1992. While not a star, he was a solid player for a few years. There you have it. The Bears hit 50% at edge rusher and a perfect 100% at defensive tackle. This is why Biggs’ words can’t be ignored.
There is also the Ben Johnson factor in this.
Don’t forget that every credible insider, including Biggs, has said that the Bears’ head coach holds considerable personnel power inside Halas Hall. If it comes down to it, he’ll determine who the team goes with at #25. Why does this matter? Don’t forget the team has a glaring issue at left tackle. Ozzy Trapilo tore his patella and will likely miss part of the upcoming regular season. Theo Benedet and Braxton Jones are free agents. Depending on how things unfold, there is a strong possibility Johnson may wish to reserve that pick for a concrete solution at left tackle, presuming a viable prospect is available.
Remember, predicting that pick has become considerably tougher since Johnson joined the team. Nobody expected the Bears to take a tight end 10th overall last year, but then Colston Loveland happened. They also didn’t expect a wide receiver. Then Luther Burden happened. It feels like an injection of unpredictability came into the mix when Johnson arrived. It could go any number of directions. Edge rusher will likely be high on the list, but the Chicago Bears can’t be married to it.
