Tom Thayer has been around the NFL for over 40 years. He’s seen the Chicago Bears at their highest and lowest, both as a player and broadcaster. He’s also seen the same thing in many NFL drafts. He doesn’t presume to dig deep into the film of all these prospects. Sure, he’ll do that for whoever the Bears eventually take, but that is pretty much it. One would think he would be on board with the way things are trending this year. Recent signs indicate the Bears might be thinking about an offensive tackle with the 25th overall pick. As a former guard, Thayer would probably love it. However, his actual preference proved shocking, and perhaps a subtle hint to GM Ryan Poles.
He appeared on ESPN 1000 with Carmen & Jurko to discuss the draft. There, he was presented with a simple question. What does he think the Bears will or should do? His answer was pretty surprising. If it were him, he would be aggressive and trade up to get the best pass rusher possible.
It seems rather uncharacteristic. Thayer isn’t usually the one championing the idea of aggressive moves like that, but he seems convinced that the Bears badly need a difference-making edge rusher if they’re going to become a legitimate title contender.
Tom Thayer isn’t wrong.
Since the metric was first created, six of the last eight Super Bowl champions had a pass rush win rate of 41% or higher. The only two that didn’t featured Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. The Bears defense was at 29% last season, good for 31st in the NFL. It wasn’t just that they weren’t getting sacks. It was that they weren’t harassing the quarterback at all for lengthy stretches during games. That was why it often looked like they were getting carved up like a turkey on Thanksgiving. Even average quarterbacks can have a big day on you if you’re not making them uncomfortable.
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The Bears haven’t had a front like that in years. That would likely be the waning days of Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. They have nobody of that caliber on this front. Montez Sweat is a good player, but he’s not dynamic. Austin Booker made plenty of progress, but he’s not there yet. They need a hoss to hitch their wagon to. There is almost no chance somebody like that will fall to the 25th pick. So what if the Bears take the advice Tom Thayer gives them and decide to move up? Who can they realistically get, and how far can they climb?
Three names stand out as worthwhile targets.
Two are David Bailey of Texas Tech and Arvell Reese of Ohio State. Neither will get out of the top five if you believe what the draft experts say. That leaves only one left: Rueben Bain of Miami. His stock has been uncertain of late because of concerns about his short arms and a careless driving incident two years ago that caused the death of someone. Issues like that usually result in a player dropping. Would Dennis Allen be willing to look past the length concerns? That is unknown. Still, Bain is a step above anybody else after that.
So how far can the Bears climb? ESPN recently stated that their 60th overall pick in the 2nd round from Buffalo could get them as high as the 16th pick, one spot ahead of Detroit who also needs edge rush help. If by some chance Bain slips to that spot, it might be a worthwhile move. There is no question that Bain has the natural skills of a pass rusher. The best part is that Allen would be able to move him around, both inside and outside. It certainly comes close to what Tom Thayer wants.
