How Simple Math Tells Us What The Chicago Bears Will Do In The 1st Round

Experts have gone back and forth on what the Chicago Bears will do at the 25th overall pick nine days from now. For the better part of two or three months, there was a firm consensus that it would be a defensive selection, be it an edge rusher, defensive tackle, or safety. Those are the three most pressing needs for that side of the ball. However, recently it’s become evident that the Bears have shifted their pre-draft focus to offensive tackles, all of whom are expected to go in the 1st round.

Some have wondered why they’d do this. Part of it is the obvious need they have at left tackle. Ozzy Trapilo is out for at least the majority of 2026. Braxton Jones and Jedrick Wills are on one-year deals. They need some sort of long-term insurance. Another is that they don’t like their defensive line or safety options at that spot. That said, another factor is at play. The simple fact is that if the Bears don’t take an offensive tackle immediately, the odds of them landing a good one outside the 1st round drop significantly.

Math says a lot about how the Chicago Bears will approach this.

Don’t forget head coach Ben Johnson is an analytics guy. He trusts the numbers when they paint a clear picture. That doesn’t just apply to how he runs his offense. It can extend to the draft as well. The reality is that the math shows the Bears they can’t put off drafting an offensive tackle. If they do, the odds of them landing a good one tank. Conversely, they have a much better chance of finding legitimate players at edge, safety, and defensive tackle if they wait it out. Below is a table showing how many Pro Bowl players were selected 57th or later at each position since 2000.

Facts are facts. While it’s not impossible to find good offensive tackles outside of the 1st round, it is far more difficult compared to most other positions. The sensible play is clear. Take that offensive tackle at #25, then circle back at #57 and #60 in the 2nd round to grab any of the edge rusher, safety, or defensive tackle combination you want. Sure, a massive run on tackle could kill that strategy, but right now is the best one the Bears can take to have reasonable assurance of success.

Even their franchise history proves it.

The Chicago Bears have selected several tackles in the draft going back to the start of the Super Bowl era. In all of that time, only two of them were taken outside the 1st round, and only two developed into viable starters. They were Braxton Jones and Charles Leno Jr. Trapilo looked like he might join them before his knee injury. Other than that, their best drafted tackles are all 1st rounders.

Facts are facts. The Bears might as well not draft a tackle at all if they decide not to grab one at #25. The result would be the same. They’d be better off focusing on other positions, such as center or wide receiver. Both have much higher chances of working out in later rounds.