Losing Caleb Williams was never the plan. No team goes into a season hoping its starting quarterback goes down. It rarely ends well. The Chicago Bears are no different. Plenty of players in that locker room likely agree that they would have won that game last week if Williams’ hamstring hadn’t given out when it did. They would much rather have him healthy for Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. That said, the news that backup quarterback Tyson Bagent had also suffered a concussion hit almost as hard.

However, his situation was different for reasons.

Part of it was knowing the Bears might have to go to their third option, a 38-year-old Case Keenum who hasn’t played in three years. However, it wasn’t just that. It was the gutwrenching timing. Remember, people have insisted for two solid years that Bagent is capable of being a starter in this league. He’s been consistently great in the preseason. All he needed was an opportunity to show it. Then, when that opportunity finally arrives, he immediately gets hurt before he can take full advantage.

Mercifully, the football gods might be throwing him a bone just in the nick of time.

Tyson Bagent still has a chance to fulfill his destiny.

Returning to practice on Saturday was a huge shift in the right direction. It means he’s progressed far enough in the concussion protocol that doctors feel he’s almost ready to go. Barring a setback on Sunday, there is a good chance he’ll be cleared. From there, it comes down to whether head coach Ben Johnson feels he is prepared enough to take on the Eagles on Monday night. Saturday’s practice no doubt plays a major part in determining that. Right now, it feels like Bagent is gaining steam to get the nod.

Let’s not forget. The Bears made him the #2 quarterback for a reason. They believe he is the best option at the position if Williams can’t go. If he’s close to 100% healthy, then it makes no sense to hold him back. He knows the offense. He’s been preparing for this moment for over three years. Tyson Bagent doesn’t need a full week of practice to know what he is doing. The Bears have every reason to give him the ball in this game and let him find out if he can truly hack it, once and for all.

If he can? The Bears stand to benefit.

Bagent playing well and winning on Monday night would be a major boon for the organization, both in the short and long term. It would give Chicago a sorely needed victory against a top NFC opponent. In addition, it would significantly elevate his profile among other NFL franchises. There have been rumblings for some time that franchises have kept an eye on Bagent. They haven’t yet made a serious push because they don’t know how he’ll respond to live action. This game will be the first where everything is geared toward him.

Last week’s offensive game plan was designed for Williams. That won’t be the case this time. Johnson and his staff will design plays meant to maximize what Bagent does best. He’s facing one of the best pass defenses in the league. If he can step up and lead this team to victory, that trade value stands to skyrocket. Watching Keenum instead just doesn’t bring the same air of urgency and confidence.

In an ideal world, the Chicago Bears would rush four guys and drop the remaining eight. Those four would be able to apply pressure on the quarterback, raising the odds of forcing a turnover or punt because of the minimal throwing lanes. All the best defenses in NFL history played this way. Dennis Allen wants to play that way, too. Unfortunately, the current construction of the Bears’ defensive line has made that idea dicey at best. Aside from Montez Sweat, they don’t really have anyone who can apply consistent pressure.

Austin Booker and Dayo Odeyingbo are solid players when healthy, but not dynamic in any way. Their interior is deeper than last year, but it faces the same issue. Not enough difference-makers. After what happened last season, it looks like Allen decided to take matters into his own hands. In 2025, the Bears were tied for 11th in the NFL with a 25.8 blitz percentage. Right around average. So far in 2026, Allen has bumped that up to 38.8%. That is currently the 5th-most in the league.

Dennis Allen is venturing into uncharted waters.

Looking back over his career as a defensive play-caller, he has hovered in the high 20s to low 30s for blitz percentage. His highest ever recorded came in 2020 when it settled at 33.3%. If this current trend holds for the Bears this season, it would be a massive spike from Allen’s perspective. Considerably out of character.

So why would Dennis Allen do this? Part of it is what I mentioned above. The pass rush just isn’t strong enough to do it on its own. However, it’s also likely the Bears’ defensive coordinator is seizing on a growing NFL trend. Last season, you’ll have noticed that the top 3 defenses in the league also finished in the top 10 in blitz rate. New Orleans and Kansas City also finished in the top 10 in both categories. There seems to be a growing sense that most current quarterbacks struggle to handle extra pressure.

It seems the Bears finally accepted reality.

They said all summer that they had the utmost confidence that the pass rush would be fine once everybody was healthy. There was no need to make a notable move to upgrade the area. In reality, they didn’t really have the resources to do so. They had to hope that what they had was enough. Allen must’ve realized at some point in training camp, or even that ugly first half against Carolina, that this was suicidal thinking. If the players couldn’t do the job alone, it falls on him to pick up the slack. So he amped up the blitzes.

You should expect that to continue on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has traditionally been average against the blitz in his career. This season hasn’t been much different. He’s completing 63% of his passes against it and ranks 3rd among all quarterbacks with 4 sacks taken. The strategy can work if you manage to stop the Eagles’ ground attack. You can bet that is the strategy for Allen in this one.

The Chicago Bears have had a hard enough time trying to battle their opponents through the first two weeks of the season. Unfortunately, they’ve also had to spend that time battling the referees. Through two weeks, Chicago is the third-most penalized team in the NFL. Most will say the Bears need to be more disciplined. Part of that is true, but anybody who has watched those two games can easily make the case that some of those calls were ticky-tack at best. The problem is that it might not get any better on Monday night.

Warren Sharp of Sharp Football is a well-known analytics expert for football data. He came across some information that feels pretty pertinent to the Bears’ upcoming game. According to his findings, the Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated when playing under the watch of head referee Shawn Hochuli and his crew.

“The Jalen Hurts/Nick Sirianni-led Eagles are 6-0 on the moneyline and 3-2-1 ATS in Hochuli-officiated contests. The Eagles have benefitted from a plus-two penalty advantage per game over opponents in those contests.”

You never want to say a game is rigged against you, but that data is hard to ignore. It is pretty clear that Hochuli has shown favoritism towards the Eagles in every game he’s called for them, and they’ve benefited as a result.

The Chicago Bears can’t pull the upset while battling the refs, too.

Last season, when they started 0-2, they committed 20 combined penalties in those games. Their third loss to the Baltimore Ravens saw them commit 10 more. Beating good teams is almost impossible when you’re stuck fighting the yellow flags as well. The Eagles are 2-0. Their pass defense remains one of the NFL’s most formidable. Jalen Hurts is off to one of his better starts. If the Bears want to overcome such a challenge, they cannot under any circumstances give that team extra opportunities.

What makes this even tougher is the absence of Caleb Williams. Chicago’s stud quarterback was a big reason the Bears were able to overcome many of their penalty woes last season. His big arm and standout mobility allowed him to recover large chunks of yardage lost to flags. Case Keenum doesn’t have the same toolbox. The offense must do what it hasn’t done yet this season: play efficient football.

There is some good news.

Over the course of last season, the Bears got better at limiting their mistakes. From week three on, they committed 6 or fewer penalties at home in a game 6 times. Not having to deal with extensive crowd noise will be a major benefit. They’ll also have an extra 24 hours to prepare. The Bears were a perfect 3-0 last season in games with an extended wait of 8 days or more. If Sharp is aware of the ref angle, you can safely bet the same is true for head coach Ben Johnson and his staff.

Backup quarterback Case Keenum is a veteran. He’s been around the league for a long time. He knows how to run an operation smoothly. During his last two starts with Houston in 2023, the team avoided excessive pre-snap penalties. That alone would be a major benefit going into this matchup. Hopefully, the refs don’t make their presence known too much. If they do, that data should be forwarded to the league, citing unusual favoritism.

The Chicago Bears have every reason to be thrilled with Malik Muhammad through the first two weeks of the season. He has an interception and a sack already in his rookie season, but the 4th round pick also has a passer rating against of just 27.8. Targeting him in coverage hasn’t led to much for opposing quarterbacks. What makes it even better is he’s done it at nickel, the toughest position in the secondary to learn. A position he didn’t play much in college. After spending months without Kyler Gordon, this has been a tremendous stroke of good fortune for the defense.

However, new developments present a serious problem for the Bears. Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson is dealing with a hamstring injury. Barring a swift recovery, there is a strong probability he will miss Monday night’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles. This creates a problem. Do the Bears move Muhammad outside to fill Stevenson’s spot? This would mean they shift Cam Lewis to nickel and play Xavier Woods at safety. Or do they keep Muhammad at nickel, where he’s been successful, and maybe lean on Clark Phillips or Josh Blackwell to handle boundary duties?

Malik Muhammad has become a critical chess piece.

Nobody ever would’ve imagined that when the season began. The initial hope was that he might be able to rotate into the lineup, gaining experience as a part-time player. Instead, he’s become a starter, and a pretty important one at that. There is still no sign of Gordon returning anytime soon. With Stevenson out of commission, the Bears must decide what is more important: protect the boundary or cover the slot. Based on what we’ve heard Dennis Allen say, the nickel is a vital part of the defense. It feels like the Bears would want to keep Malik Muhammad where he’s been most successful.

That means going with Phillips or Blackwell on the outside. The Bears traded for Phillips right before the season when they flipped Gervon Dexter to Atlanta. He hasn’t seen much action yet due to his unfamiliarity with the system. When he played for the Falcons, he was mostly a boundary corner. He was targeted 79 times in that span, allowing 50 catches, 5 touchdowns, and a 99.0 passer rating. Blackwell is more of a wild card. While an excellent special-teams player, he didn’t play much defense last season. He was targeted just 7 times, allowing 5 catches for 60 yards.

Matchup may also determine this decision.

One must also look at the strength of Philadelphia’s offense. The Eagles are not a great slot passing team. First-round pick Makai Lemon is their primary option there, and he’s been a non-factor so far this season. DeVonta Smith is their best weapon, and he has played almost exclusively on the outside. If that remains the case, the smart thing to do is to try to put your best corners on the outside to counter him. In such a scenario, moving Malik Muhammad makes sense.

Then you factor in the loss of tight end Dallas Goedert, and the Eagles’ slot presence diminishes even further. If you bring it all together, moving Muhammad outside might be the most sensible option. He has plenty of experience there from his time in college. It’s much easier playing that position anyway. Lewis isn’t a great nickel option, but he’s been steady when called upon. It will be interesting to see what Allen decides.