The Chicago Bears injury situation of 2016 was remarkable. It truly was like nothing fans had ever seen in franchise history. At least during the Super Bowl era. Nobody could remember so many players being knocked out for long stretches of time before. Not just any players either. Key players.

Leonard Floyd, Jay Cutler, Kevin White, Josh Sitton, Kyle Long, Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan, Kyle Fuller and Pernell McPhee were all major names on the roster. All missed significant time with various health problems. It got people to think whether the team might be cursed. If nothing else they had to be one of the most injured teams in recent history, right?

As it turns out? Yes. According to the stat masters at Football Outsiders, crunching of the data revealed that the Bears were beset by an abnormal number of losses. Some of the worst they’ve seen in almost two decades of data recording.

Chicago Bears injury situation was Category 5 bad

“For those unfamiliar with AGL (Adjusted Games Lost), we do not simply add up the number of games missed. We are able to quantify how much teams were affected by injuries based on two principles: (1) Injuries to starters, injury replacements and important situational reserves (No. 3 wide receiver, nickel corner, etc.) matter more than injuries to benchwarmers; and (2) Injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability, which is why AGL is based not strictly on whether the player was active for the game or not, but instead is based on the player’s game status that week (IR/PUP, out, doubtful, questionable, or probable).”

It’s a much more detailed way to look at the health situation for the Bears last year. Predictably the results were bad. Historically bad. Below is the table for their results. Not only did Chicago blow away the rest of the field with their 2016 losses, it’s easy to forget how ravaged they were in 2015 as well.

“Chicago’s 155.1 AGL is the highest in our database since 2000, eclipsing the 141.3 AGL for the 2013 Giants. Chicago had 12 players incur at least 6.0 AGL. The next closest teams were Buffalo and San Diego with eight such players each.

Not surprisingly, the Bears finished 3-13 and had a disappointing season. However, the team was still 25th in DVOA instead of dead last, and played pretty competitively down the stretch despite Barkley playing in a rag-tag offense.”

Bears performed well under horrendous circumstances

People rolled their eyes when GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox insisted a run of good health might change fortunes in 2017. It’s so easy to forget how much injuries impact team performance. People get lost in the common line, “Every team is hurt during the season.” Sure, but that’s a copout. The reality is most winning teams every year are often the least-injured ones.

All six NFC playoff teams last year had an AGL rating of 70.6 or lower. That’s less than half of what the Bears suffered. Excuses exist for a reason and this is a big one to fall back on. It’s why so many people keep referencing the health situation. They know the talent level of this roster is good. It flashed frequently throughout last year with periodic stretches of competitive play. The key remains whether the best players can stay on the field.

If they do, the 2017 Bears could end up surprising a lot of people.

Sid Luckman (1939)

He remains the gold standard by which all other Bears QBs are measured. Sid Luckman earned that by being the only one to play that position in Chicago who made the Hall of Fame. Were there signs of that greatness as a rookie though? All things considered, yes there was. Luckman started seven games in 1939. He completed 23 passes for a 636 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. Given the archaic rules of that era, it’s pretty good numbers. What makes it more impressive? He averaged 44.4 yards as a punter that year and intercepted three passes on defense.

Johnny Lujack (1946)

Lujack may have been drafted in 1946, but by that point his college career wasn’t even over yet. He’d be absorbed into the United States Navy during World War II and didn’t reach the NFL until 1948. Technically that was his rookie year. He appeared sporadically across nine games but ended up starting three. He completed 33 passes for 611 yards and six touchdowns with three interceptions. On top of that he ran for 110 yards and another touchdown. The craziest part though was he played defense that year and had eight interceptions.

Bobby Layne (1948)

This might be one of the ultimate what-if scenarios. The Bears almost could’ve had another Hall of Fame quarterback going into the 1950s if they’d had the foresight to keep Bobby Layne. However, the timing was just tragic. Lujack was getting into the meat of his run at the time. Layne only started one game that season in 1948 and threw for 232 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He also added a 13-yard rushing touchdown. Layne realized he wasn’t going to play much moving forward so he requested a trade the next year. Not long after that, Lujack retired to become a coach at Notre Dame.

Bob Williams (1951)

He didn’t start any games as a rookie but Bob Williams did get some playing time. First impressions weren’t encouraging. He barely completed 42% of his 33 passes for 146 yards, one TD and two interceptions. Also he fumbled twice on five rushing attempts. It was a sign of the underwhelming things that were to come. Williams ended up playing just three seasons in Chicago. His career was short-circuited by serving a tour of duty in the Navy during the Korean War. He missed two full seasons and didn’t last long upon his return.

Jim McMahon (1982)

For the first time in over 30 years the Bears selected a first round QB. Jim McMahon was a hero at BYU know for his leadership and late-game magic. What they didn’t count on was his rebellious attitude. Yet it was impossible to deny his gifts. McMahon won the starting job as a rookie and had a positive effect right away. He three for 1,501 yards, nine touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven starts. In a strike-shortened year the team went 3-6 but were 3-4 with McMahon, who was hurt for the two other games.

Jim Harbaugh (1987)

The constant injury problems with McMahon eventually forced the Bears to look towards the future in 1987. They took Jim Harbaugh 27th overall and hoped he would become the guy down the road. The team really did do everything possible to keep him off the field. Harbaugh only threw 11 passes total for 62 yards in the six games he was active. Per usual the start pretty much reflected his Chicago career. Underwhelming and forgettable. Quite unlike his eventual time as a head coach.

Cade McNown (1999)

By and large the rookie run for Cade McNown was all that bad. He looked like the inexperienced kid he was. In six starts for the Bears that 1999 season, he threw for 1,465 yards with eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for 160 yards. There were at least signs that he could be molded into something better. It just never happened. Problems kept cropping up after that. Sometimes it was injury and others just a lack of initiative to get better. McNown was gone after two seasons.

Rex Grossman (2003)

Perhaps this might be the lesson John Fox needs to learn. Dick Jauron was coming off another bad year in 2002. So the team injected some life into the team by drafting Rex Grossman in the first round of the 2003 draft. Yet Jauron felt more comfortable going with veterans Kordell Stewart and Chris Chandler. It wasn’t until late in the season after falling out of playoff contention that Grossman got his shot to play. In three starts he threw for 427 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. The Bears went 2-1 in those games. Jauron was fired the next season.