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The Numbers Don’t Support Bears’ Reasons to Hold Back Trubisky

mike glennon mitch trubisky
Credit: Chicago Tribune

Far and above any Chicago Bears topic for the past four months has been the quarterbacks. More specifically who should start. This hasn’t been something fans have debated for nine years when the Jay Cutler era began. Aside from a brief flirtation with Josh McCown in 2013, there was no debate about who the starter should be. That has since changed with the arrivals of Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky.

It’s not like people didn’t see this coming, including the Bears. The moment they drafted Trubisky after signing Glennon to his big contract, the seeds of a controversy were planted. GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox have done everything in their power to dissuade people from the idea that Trubisky can play soon than expected though.

They have a plan in place and are sticking with it. Glennon is the veteran. They believe in him. He will start. Trubisky will sit until he’s ready.

Is the Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky situation backed up by history?

Sure it sounds logical on paper. Why throw the rookie onto the field too soon. You could damage his psyche forever. This is not some new form of thinking. Nearly every expert around the league supports the idea. What’s the rush? Bring the kid along slowly and led Glennon manage the offense until then.

Thing is though the numbers don’t seem to support this line of thinking. I decided to do some research. First I pinpointed every quarterback who has gone in the top five pick range from 1980 to 2015. This would ensure that even the most recent had been in the league for at least two season.

The goal was simple:  separate the names into two categories. One would be QBs who started right away (as in opening day). The other would be QBs who waited a certain period of time, be it a couple weeks or even a year before getting on the field. Then I measured how well the two sides did to see if holding rookies out really had any sort of positive effect.

Players who started opening day as rookies

  • John Elway (9 Pro Bowls, 2 rings, HOF)
  • Troy Aikman (6 Pro Bowls, 3 rings, HOF)
  • Jeff George
  • Drew Bledsoe (3 Pro Bowls, 1 ring)
  • Rick Mirer
  • Peyton Manning (14 Pro Bowls, 2 rings, HOF)
  • Ryan Leaf
  • David Carr
  • Matt Ryan (4 Pro Bowls)
  • Mark Sanchez
  • Matthew Stafford (1 Pro Bowl)
  • Sam Bradford
  • Cam Newton (3 Pro Bowls)
  • Andrew Luck (3 Pro Bowls)
  • Robert Griffin III (1 Pro Bowl)
  • Marcus Mariota
  • Jameis Winston (1 Pro Bowl)

Players who sat at least their first week of NFL action

  • Jim McMahon (1 Pro Bowl, 1 ring)
  • Art Schlichter
  • Jim Everett (1 Pro Bowl)
  • Vinny Testaverde (2 Pro Bowls)
  • Heath Schuler
  • Kerry Collins (2 Pro Bowls)
  • Steve McNair (3 Pro Bowls)
  • Akili Smith
  • Donovan McNabb (6 Pro Bowls)
  • Tim Couch
  • Michael Vick (4 Pro Bowls)
  • Joey Harrington
  • Carson Palmer (3 Pro Bowls)
  • Philip Rivers (6 Pro Bowls)
  • Eli Manning (4 Pro Bowls, 2 rings)
  • Alex Smith (2 Pro Bowls)
  • Vince Young (2 Pro Bowls)
  • JaMarcus Russell
  • Blake Bortles

Looking back over the lists, if we’re being honest, one could argue that waiting to start a quarterback could be a bit more damaging to their careers. Not one who has done so since 1980 has reached the Hall of Fame though McNabb, Rivers and Manning have at least a chance. Meanwhile the group who started right away has two in already with another who is a slam dunk.

In total the immediate start group had eight rings and 45 total Pro Bowl appearances. The sit-and-learn group. They came away with three rings and 35 appearances. That is what the gross numbers indicate, like it or not. However it’s probably best not to delve too deep into that. Fights have been started over less. Maybe just focus on the over implication.

There is little difference between now and later

At the end of the day there is no magical formula or plan for producing a top NFL quarterback. Starting right away has produced some great names and some terrible ones. Waiting awhile has produced some great names and some terrible ones. There is only so much preparation and study can do for a player. His biggest lessons will come on the field. That’s the inescapable reality.

Some will rise, some will fall. It comes down to this simple question. Is there a chance the team makes the playoffs if the rookie sits? If the answer is no, then keeping him on the bench is entirely pointless.

The Cubs Don’t Know When Addison Russell Is Coming Back From His Foot Injury

Addison Russell hasn’t had the season most fans and experts predicted (lol guaranteed 20 HRs, oops) and as of now the Chicago Cubs don’t really know when he’ll be back on the field. The young shortstop was placed on the disabled list on Aug. 4, with a foot strain and the update on Russell’s status was anything but positive on Monday.

Joe Maddon addressed the media and his comments sounded as pessimistic as it can get.

The DL stint was retroactive to Aug. 2, giving Russell the chance to come back sooner, but Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said the infielder is going to need even more time even when he is healthy enough to return.

Foot injuries always suck and can nag a player even after they feel better, but seeing “planter fasciitis” makes Russell’s injury more worrisome.

Russell was out at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, testing his right foot.

You can say whatever you want about Russell’s offense and yes that’s been disappointing, but there’s no debate who the best shortstop on the team is. It’s Russell and his absence has hurt the Cubs.

See, it’s not that Javier Baez isn’t all right filling in, he’s OK, it’s that without Russell the infield defense suffers overall. We’ve seen Baez make errors during the last week that Russell usually doesn’t at shortstop and the domino effect rolls over to second base. Baez is the best second baseman on the team and obviously the defense goes down when he has to move over to shortstop.

We saw it on Monday night against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning, when Jose Quintana got Joe Votto to hit into an easy double play, but Baez’s throw was off from second base. It didn’t end up costing the Cubs, but these mistakes have happened more frequently with Russell on the DL.

Of course, Baez does have his moments of greatness, so it’s not all negative.

So, hopefully the great plays outweigh the mistakes until Russell returns.

And hey, that power is still great too.

Another Potential Lottery Star Just Entered Bulls 2018 Draft Radar

marvin bagley 2018 nba draft bulls radar

High school basketball’s latest sensation Marvin Bagley III just threw a huge wild card into the 2018 NBA Draft. Late on Monday night, the prospect announced on ESPN’s SportsCenter that he is reclassifying to the class of 2017, making him eligible to play college hoops this season. Bagley also revealed that he’s committing to Duke University, which edged out other potential suitors UCLA and USC. It is widely assumed that Bagley – like many Duke recruits – will be a “one-and-done” player at the college level, thus entering himself into the 2018 draft class.

That’s where the rebuilding Bulls will be waiting.

Bagley & The Bulls

Marvin isn’t a lock to go #1 overall in the 2018 draft. Missouri’s Michael Porter Jr has been the heavy favorite for a while. International prospect Luka Doncic is a dark horse candidate as well. But Bagley, with last night’s decision, immediately inserted himself into the conversation. He’s essentially guaranteed to go in the top five. According to all reasonable and logical estimations, that’s where the Bulls will be drafting next year. So how would Marvin fit into this new crop of young and rebuilding Bulls?

Bagley projects as the prototypical stretch four and combo center for modern NBA offenses, including that of Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg. At 6’11, the lefty has insane athleticism, strong ballhandling for a player his size and can score from virtually anywhere on the floor. He’s not an elite range shooter yet, but he definitely has potential to become a reliable three point threat in the pros. As an added bonus, he’ll spend a year improving his game under the tutelage of Coach Krzyzewski and his world-class staff in Durham. For a roster that is starving for athleticism and shooting, Bagley fits the bill.

Just watch the kid breaking ankles and burning NBA stars during Drew League games this summer.

Other Options

On the other hand, the Bulls already have Nikola Mirotic (assuming he re-signs), Bobby Portis and newly drafted Lauri Markkanen in the fold. Mirotic might not be in the team’s long term plans, but he and Portis both have “prove-it” seasons ahead of them. Both forwards need to prove that they can knock down outside shots consistently and offer more offensive versatility. Markkanen should see some minutes as a rookie, but there’s no way to predict Hoiberg’s rotation until we see these guys play some preseason games. If Portis improves to the point where Gar Forman and John Paxson feel good about keeping him around, and Markkanen proves he was worthy of the #7 overall pick, will the Bulls decide they’re set at the position and pass on Marvin?

Porter projects as more of a wing/small forward at the NBA level. He could probably play some minutes at the four in certain small-ball lineups, but ideally he’d join a healthy Zach LaVine to form one of the most athletic and dangerous wing duos in the league. Or perhaps the Bulls front office – feeling comfortable with their young guys at the wing and in the frontcourt – will look to Doncic to add a versatile scorer and distributor to their reeling backcourt. Wade is essentially guaranteed to be gone by the 2018 draft, and none of the young guards on the current Bulls roster look all that promising.

As a necessary side note, this is all conjecture at this point. We don’t know how many losses the Bulls will manage to stack up this season, nor do we know how the ping pong balls will fall in the draft lottery. But Marvin’s decision to reclassify and likely enter the 2018 draft is still great news for Chicago and their scrutinized front office duo. Bagley, like Porter, has the potential to be a superstar player in the NBA. The Bulls want as many franchise-changing players as possible in next year’s draft. GarPax said that’s part of the plan. They expect to have a high lottery pick next year, and Bagley is now undoubtedly on their radar.

Connor Barth Had Zero Fucks To Give In Reply to Aguayo Questions

kicker connor barth

Like Mike Glennon when Trubisky was drafted, kicker Connor Barth couldn’t have been happy with the Chicago Bears when they claimed third-year man Roberto Aguayo off waivers. It was a clear indication the team didn’t yet believe he should be the starter. No doubt it was also an emotional blow after the team had cut his previous competition, rookie Andy Phillips a few days prior.

To be fair it’s not like the veteran had earned any job security. His 2016 season was averaged at best. He connected on just 78.3% of his field goals and also missed an extra point. Even though Aguayo was even worse, he has the advantage of being young and more talented. The Bears want to see two things. The first is whether the kid can take advantage of a second chance and the other how Barth will respond.

Well he responded with probably his best practice of training camp. Reports say the veteran went 11-for-11 in his most recent drills. No doubt a message to the team and personal boost to his confidence. Afterwards when he field the inevitable Aguayo questions though, he couldn’t help but seem a bit sour.

Kicker Connor Barth trolls Tampa Bay when asked of Aguayo

“To be honest, the Tampa curse just will not go away. But it is what it is,” Barth said. “Like I said, I’ve played, what, this is my 10th training camp? If I ever said I was going to do that, it’s been a good run. I’m just trying to enjoy it as long as I can, and whatever happens, happens. I’ve got a great beach house to go back to in North Carolina. We’re renovating a house. It’s good times right now. So I’ve got a lot of other things I’m thinking about too. This is life, man. This is what it’s all about.”

Clearly he’s a man who isn’t afraid of these threats to his job. So what about this Tampa curse? It turns out Barth has an ugly history with that team. They signed him in 2009 and for four seasons he was their starting kicker. The final two saw him play really well and put him in line for a contract extension. Then in 2013 he tore his Achilles and was lost for the season.

A year later he lost his job to Patrick Murray. After spending 2014 in Denver where he had his most accurate season, Barth returned to Tampa for a second chance. He ended up going 23-of-28. In response the Buccaneers traded up to the second round and drafted Aguayo as his replacement. He left for Chicago where he took over for the departed Robbie Gould.

Now just when Barth though he’d shaken his time in Tampa Bay, in comes Aguayo again hunting for his job. So yeah one can understand why he might think he’s cursed.

Response on the field is what matters most

In this context it’s easy to understand why he might be a little upset. Nobody likes to have their job threatened, much less by the same person twice. Chicago knows a thing or two about sports curses, so they can empathize with Barth. At the same time they have a job to do. That’s put the best 53 players on the field to help them win. Kicker is no exception to that rule. If he doesn’t like it, then just win the competition.

Cubs Twitter Throws Some Shade At White Sox Announcer Hawk Harrelson

Hawk White Sox

In case you haven’t seen, Chicago White Sox announcer Ken Hawk Harrelson has been keeping his name in the headlines by trash talking Wrigley Field. He recently said that he would never set foot inside the home of the Cubs ever again and called the pressbox there the worst in MLB. On Saturday he doubled down on those comments and took it one step further, saying Wrigley Field needs to be replaced.

The Cubs returned to Wrigley on Monday after a week-long road trip and after Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo hit back-to-back home runs, Cubs Twitter took the opportunity to throw some shade at Hawk.

You can read the rest about Hawk here.

Cubs Hit Back-to-Back Home Runs AGAIN!

The Chicago Cubs have now hit back-to-back home runs in three of their last four games, starting Friday against the Arizona Diamondbacks. On Monday, it was Bryzzo going deep in consecutive at-bats, as Kris Bryant hit a two-run homer, followed by Anthony Rizzo’s blast to right field against the Cincinnati Reds.

Kyle Schwarber and Alex Avila went back-to-back on Friday, while Javier Baez and Ian Happ did it on Sunday. More dingers, please!

Former Trubisky Schoolmate Still Upset Bears Got Him over Browns

mitch trubisky
Maribeth Joeright/MJoeright@News-Herald.com Mentor's Mitch Trubisky threw six touchdowns and led his team to a 56-28 victory over Solon Friday at Mentor High School.

So many perspectives have been explored regarding Mitch Trubisky the quarterback. Of course it started with GM Ryan Pace and his front office. Then it was notable draft experts. Soon his parents were interviewed and his college coaches at North Carolina. Not to mention plenty of teammates. All of whom swear that the young QB is destined for greatness in the NFL. So what about going way back, maybe to a Trubisky schoolmate?

Specifically one who knew him in high school. That is what Reddit user mrautomatic17 was. He’s a local of Trubisky’s hometown of Mentor, Ohio. Few had a better seat for his rise to prominence as one of the best players in the state and eventually the country. Other users kept asking him to explain what it was like being so up close to that action.

So he decided to explain in detail all of his impressions. Suffice to say they ranged from good to blown away.

Trubisky schoolmate breaks down the rise to Mr. Ohio Football

Perhaps the best part was the final paragraph. It was clear mrautomatic17 was a teeny bit miffed that his beloved Cleveland Browns didn’t draft Trubisky when they had the chance. Considering this comes from a man who watched him up close and personal for almost a decade, that’s saying a lot. Few had a greater idea of just what they were missing out on.

This is further affirmation that the Bears maybe, just maybe got the right guy. There is still plenty of proving to do. Trubisky has his fair share of doubters. Nonetheless he came out strong with the best preseason debut of a Bears rookie QB in the Super Bowl era. The goal now is building off of that. Chicago is anxious to see what happens next. The coaches continue to insist patience.

Reading stuff like this makes that difficult.

Head Coach John Fox Ejected Kyle Long From Bears Practice

kyle long
CHICAGO, IL - AUGUST 11: at Soldier Field on August 11, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The Broncos defeated the Bears 22-0. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

It’s no secret that the man is a fiery personality but really? A Kyle Long ejection from Bears practice? Yep, it happened. Details of the situation are a bit fuzzy at this point. That’s not a surprise. The team was in a closed practice so it’s difficult to get any read on what started things. All that is known to this point is two scuffles broke out during drills and Long was involved with both of them according to multiple sources.

Long was removed from the Bears’ final practice at Olivet Nazarene on Monday for multiple fights with teammates. The second incident forced coach John Fox and general manager Ryan Pace to send Long off to the locker room.

“There’s a certain standard that we have, something we weren’t really pleased with,” Fox said of the decision to send Long off.

This is standard procedure with most training camps. It’s not the first time it’s happened under Fox. A similar scuffle resulted in multiple ejections last year when the Bears were joint-practicing with the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick has a long-standing policy of kicking players off the field when fights break out.

Fight that caused Kyle Long ejection was heated

As stated earlier it’s not clear what caused the scuffle to break out in the first place. All that is known to this point is something happened and it escalated fast. Almost to the point where it got pretty ugly.

Now of course it’s unclear whether Long started the fights or not. However, being a core member of the roster he’s expected to hold a higher standard. Getting into multiple fights with your own teammates reflects poorly. Yes football is a violent game but that’s not an excuse to start actual brawls over disagreements. The saying goes, “Get your revenge on the next play.”

Some are chalking up the explosion to frustrations boiling over for Long. It can be understood. He missed half of 2016 with a nasty ankle injury. Since then he’s worked so hard to get back and admitted he’s chomping at the bit to play. The Bears though have been careful with his progress. They want him 100% for the opener.

For a competitor like Long, that’s hard to swallow. So when it’s hot and the intensity ratchets up during practice, sometimes the temper flares.

Latest Quotes Hint Trubisky Is Wearing Down the Bears Brass

bears brass
Credit: AP

John Fox and Ryan Pace, to their credit aren’t abandoning the plan. Not yet anyway. The Chicago Bears brass have stated from the outset that veteran Mike Glennon is the starter in 2017. He has the experience and knowledge on his side. He’s proven he can be effective in the right system. If nothing else he buys them time while Mitch Trubisky learns in safety on the bench.

Unfortunately even the best laid plans don’t survive first implementation. In this modern era of the NFL, patience for the process has diminished considerably. People are far more educated to said process and understand when something just isn’t working. When that happens the demand goes out for change.

Fox and Pace are right not to let that change come after one preseason game. However, it’s not just that. Though Glennon wetting the bed and Trubisky playing well were big revelations, it’s also been the progression in practice that has a hand in the changing of their tunes.

John Fox and Ryan Pace fail to hide their excitement

Now of course neither man came right out and stated they’re thinking about Trubisky grabbing the starting job. They’re too professional for that. At the same time both are human. They can slip up and let certain statements seep into the company line. It happened to some extent for each of them after the Bears’ final training camp practice in Bourbannais.

It started with Pace who spoke on the Hoge & Jahns podcast about the state of the team. Naturally he was asked about the QB situation first. He was quick to temper expectations on Trubisky. The Bears couldn’t very well dictate their 2017 plans off one preseason performance by Glennon. This is true.

None of what he said was all that notable, until his last line.

“Mike’s our starter and we’re rolling that way,” Pace said. “But, hey, having competition throughout the field [at] all positions is important.”

That last bit was a slight departure from the norm for Pace. In previous instances there was no room for debate. Pace made it clear that Glennon was the starting quarterback. There was not a single mention of competition or Trubisky by name.

“We evaluated him over the years. We’re very confident in him. Glennon’s our starter and we’re confident with that.”

So if nothing else the rookie certainly has Pace’s attention for the time being. He’s not the only one either. Even the seasoned head coach had his moment.

Fox singled out Trubisky after practice

John Fox is a man who is steeped in tradition like any older coach would be. He has a set way of doing things that have worked in the past and would prefer to keep it that way. Among those things is not starting a rookie quarterback. The one time he’s done it in his career? His team went 2-14 and he was fired.

So one can understand his hesitation for trying again. Fox knows his job may be on the line in 2017 and he has to win more games. He might feel more comfortable with a veteran under center who can manage the game rather than gamble on a rookie.

Yet even he took a second to betray his growing infatuation with Trubisky. It came right after the end of practice when the young quarterback led a two-minute drill for a touchdown and two-point conversion. Fox made a surprising revelation about the sequence. Without being prompted.

‘‘He did have a successful scoring drive in two-minute,’’ coach John Fox said. ‘‘We got down there pretty close with the first unit; that was against the first unit. But we just continue to evaluate practice — not just games, but the whole practice — and [Trubisky] is continuing to get better.’’

In case you’re wondering, he’s admitting Trubisky led a touchdown drive with the #3 offense against the starting defense. Tanner Gentry and Daniel Brown were his primary targets against the likes of Leonard Floyd, Jerrell Freeman and Prince Amukamara. Meanwhile Glennon kept leaving sour moments on the field with the ugliest play of practice.

People continue to insist that the status quo hasn’t changed. Again, that’s fair. However, there is a growing undercurrent:  improvement better happen in Arizona.

Explaining why there’s so much hesitation for a change

Of course there are many Bears fans asking the question. Why not just go with Trubisky? Sure he’ll make mistakes. That’s normal for rookies but isn’t the potential payoff the other way worth it? It’s hard to understand the thinking of men like Pace and Fox in these situations when it seems so cut and dry to the masses.

Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune explains things from their perspective. Why they’re not eager to throw Trubisky out there right away. Why Glennon gets a second chance. Also, why that could change by next week.

“The biggest reason to tap the brakes on the Start Mitch movement is he’s yet to experience the breadth of blitzes and pressure packages teams would bring at him on a weekly basis. There’s stuff Trubisky hasn’t dreamed of seeing after coming from a spread offense in college in which defenses tried not to get beat over the top. There also has to be some level of concern that any quarterback might have a rough ride with the offense in place, especially when the Bears can’t crank up the ground game.

Glennon — and the supporting cast around him — will have to be more efficient and productive Saturday at Arizona. If he comes close to posting another goose egg — his passer rating was 0.0 against the Broncos — they’re going to have to rethink the master plan at Halas Hall.”

The Cardinals are yet another team with a strong secondary and aggressive attacking front seven. Just like Denver. No doubt they will be applying the pressure to Glennon for a second-straight week. If he flounders again, all Trubisky would have to do is play decent during his stint and the entire conversation will start shifting. No doubt Bears fans will have plenty to talk about at that point.

White Sox Close To Trading Tyler Clippard To Astros

Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

August trades are rarely blockbusters. Those deals are usually pre-deadline. However, players are often moved for the right price in the month before rosters expand. That was the case today as Tyler Clippard, one of the pieces in the Todd Frazier deal, is apparently very close to being sent to Houston.

Clippard has been great since joining the White Sox, posting a 1.80 ERA and striking out 12 per 9 innings.

Nothing is official as of now, but Clippard’s Twitter bio currently says he pitches for the Astros. A team can never have enough arms once the playoffs roll around, and Houston is clearly no exception. If the White Sox can get a couple mid level minor leaguers in return, I’d consider it a win. Or, Hahn could just be trading him with the main focus to dump some salary. Either way, this move won’t really hurt the White Sox, but has potential to give them a slightly deeper farm, or more leeway with money in the future.