Let’s put a bow on this rumor right now; Jackie Bradley Junior won’t be traded to the White Sox this offseason. Not because the Red Sox don’t have interest in Jose Abreu or the White Sox have shown interest in the all-star centerfielder before, but rather Bradley Jr. doesn’t fit the South Siders timeline and needs.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe sprinkled this juicy rumor as an aside in his larger article on the Red Sox trading for Giancarlo Stanton. Cafardo mentions the Red Sox interest in inserting a thumping bat in the middle of their lineup and writes, “The White Sox, who have Jose Abreu available in a trade, know it.” One sentence at the end of an insignificant paragraph.
Further down in the article, Cafardo lists the Giants and Royals as suitors for the “unavailable” Bradley Jr. However, the White Sox were included in this trio of callers when the article was published on Nov. 25, but are now absent. I don’t have the screenshot to prove Cafardo revised his article, but an MLB Traderumors summary quotes the Globe scribe as contending the “Giants, White Sox and Royals ‘will likely keep inquiring’…”
This isn’t to say the White Sox haven’t had interest in Bradley Jr. in the past. At the trade deadline in 2016, NESN reported that the White Sox “really, really wanted Bradley [Jr.].” Things have changed since then. Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert were swiped in trades and international signing periods, respectively, and Jimenez could debut in Chicago in 2018. Besides the young and flashy talent, Adam Engel played well in centerfield as a placeholder and several other alternatives exist for the White Sox to survive the next two seasons.
I’m not one to hang on semantics too closely but it seems to me the White Sox weren’t all that interested in Bradley Jr. to begin with, and most of the speculation fanned this past weekend was a product of Cafardo’s own calculus. I’m sure he had good reason to speculate that the White Sox were in on Bradley Jr. discussions but Rick Hahn has stated he intends to check in with every team this year to keep a pulse on the market. But trading Abreu for Bradley Jr. has the stench of a bad deal from the beginning.
The Red Sox can afford to jettison Bradley Jr. considering the outfield depth they have with Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts. If they are able to loosen Stanton from the Marlins clutch, losing Bradley Jr. is insignificant. But the devil lies in the details on any deal for Stanton and although the Bo Sox have a lot of flexibility in their payroll they would like to avoid foolish financial decisions, especially considering Stanton can opt out after 2020.
But a deal that would send Abreu to Boston and net Bradley Jr. for the White Sox hinges on the South Siders. Bradely Jr. has never batted near .300, never driven in 100 runs and never hit 30 home runs in a season. Abreu is the fourth player in major-league history to knock in 100 or more runs and blast 25 or more home runs in each of his first four seasons and he also hasn’t finished a season with a batting average under .290 – a figure Bradley Jr. hasn’t reached in the big leagues. Abreu has also posted declining strikeout numbers while Bradely Jr. – a player with more speed and versatility – has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game.
If you need WAR to punctuate the case against Bradley Jr., Abreu is worth 6 more wins above average. And if you are a wRC+ fan, Abreu runs away with the sabermetric title.
Club control doesn’t offer any relief to a possible trade, either. Bradly Jr. has one more year of club control than Abreu does. Payroll for the White Sox is a moot point considering the contracts they shed last season, so Abreu’s projected $17.9 million salary compared to Bradely Jr.’s anticipated $5.9 million makes little difference to Hahn’s bottom line (MLB Traderumors salary predictions).
It’s a no-brainer. With Eric Hosmer, J.D. Martinez, Shohei Ohtani and Stanton still viable options for the Red Sox there is nary a cause for Hahn to panic and sell his greatest remaining asset for a song – and that’s not what Rick Hahn does. And besides the obvious production versus control arithmetic, cutting ties with Abreu would sow a measure of discontent that could filter through the minor leagues. Abreu was the protagonist in a compelling pitch to land Robert and served as a mentor for Yoan Moncada in his Chicago debut.
If the Hahn believes grabbing Bradley Jr. is the way to go the Red Sox would have to pair him with a major prospect to land Abreu. The Red Sox are still loaded with prospects but it seems they are more interested in grabbing prospects in a deal for Bradley Jr. Any way you slice and dice this deal, the two organizations don’t match up well for the players cited in this rumor. But hey, things change rapidly in the offseason and I’ve been surprised by less before.
