The Chicago Bears haven’t picked in the 20s of the 1st round since 2013, when they selected 20th overall. It is somewhat unfamiliar territory for this new regime. Bears general manager Ryan Poles has enjoyed a steady stream of top 10 picks over the past three years, assembling a promising young core of Darnell Wright, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland. This year will be more challenging. Several more players will be picked before the Bears go on the board. Many of them will be guys the team really wants. It will come down to how much the team trusts its evaluation ability.

However, some around the league aren’t so certain it will play out that way. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune spoke with multiple executives, asking what they think the Bears might do. In their estimation, sticking and picking might not be Chicago’s first choice. They believe a strong possibility exists that Poles tries to trade down.

Said a college scouting director: “Instead of having to have seven guys on the board that you would take, now you have to have 15 or 25 that you’d like there. You get to a point where you’re like, ‘We don’t have 25 players we like in the first round.’ Then you start thinking about moving back, get some value.”…

The first thing an assistant general manager mentioned was looking to trade down.

“We would try to go back,” he said, “just because if you’re at 25, yes, you like the fifth-year option if you’re staying in the first round, but if I can get an extra third- or fourth-round pick to go from 25 to 33, there’s a chance I get the same player, right? At that point (No. 25), it’s starting to get to where across the league, boards are looking different. I’ve got this guy a little bit higher and you had him a little lower.

“Then you’re getting to the point, too, where it’s about team needs or targeted players, maybe like the Bears picking Luther Burden last year. Whatever the case may be. The top 10? We’ve all got those same players. When it gets to the back of Round 1, you need to be a little open to navigation…”

The Chicago Bears have somebody familiar with this approach.

Poles has already done it twice in his GM stint. He traded down from #1 overall to #9 in 2023, then again from #9 to #10. That doesn’t include the several other instances over the past four years where Poles moved down. He isn’t afraid to manipulate the board. Would he consider dropping out of the 1st round entirely? It has happened quite a lot over the past decade. In fact, Poles was part of one of the most impactful such trades in NFL history when Kansas City did it in 2016.

Trading down carries hazards. There is a dangerous risk that you end up not landing any good players at all. However, in a class that is light on blue-chip talent, the sensible move might be to increase your inventory of picks, using quantity over quality to find some good players. Much depends on how wide a gap the Bears believe there will be between someone selected 25th and someone selected, say, 35th. If it’s negligible and they’re getting calls from teams wanting to jump into the back end of the 1st round, it is a strategy that can work.

Finding a trade partner will be the tricky part.

If you look back at the history of teams coming back into the 1st round, it’s often for one of two things: a quarterback or an offensive playmaker. You saw the New York Giants do it for Jaxson Dart last year. There is a distinct possibility that somebody at the top of the 2nd round who didn’t take a quarterback will want to come up to get somebody they covet. The Jets, Cardinals, Browns, and Dolphins all have major question marks at quarterback. All pick high in the 2nd round.

Let’s also not forget the Chicago Bears have seven picks in this draft. Poles has typically preferred to operate with more. Unless there is a can’t-miss player he and the coaches must have at #25, moving down is the logical move. This draft is known more for its depth than its star power. Adding extra selections gives them more opportunities to find starters. One good or even great player at #25 may not solve all of their issues. If they find willing partners, this scenario is an easy sell.

Every team always says they’ll take the best player available, regardless of position. That is hardly ever true. What they mean is that they will take the best player who both fits a potential need and meets the physical parameters they want. General managers and coaches have certain thresholds they aren’t willing to compromise on when it comes to size, length, and speed for draft prospects. The Chicago Bears are no different. General manager Ryan Poles, head coach Ben Johnson, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen each have their preferences.

Allen is likely to be the one who takes center stage in the upcoming draft. Already, the team is moving towards a significant overhaul on defense. That means Allen will have a strong voice in how they approach adding young talent. No unit figures to get more action than the defensive line. Looking at his track record, it becomes clear that the benchmarks players must meet in terms of size and athleticism to be considered for his defense. We’ll call it his gold zone.

Defensive tackle:

• 290-300 lbs
• 32+-inch arms
• 10-yard split between 1.68 and 1.75

Edge rusher:

• 250-285 lbs
• 33+-inch arms
• 10-yard split between 1.55 and 1.65

Only seven players reached that gold zone for Dennis Allen.

It’s worth noting that several notable names didn’t participate in drills at the event, including projected 1st-rounders like Peter Woods, Christen Miller, and Zion Young. All are expected to run at their pro days, so this list could change. As of now, there are nine players who have the required size, length, and explosive get-off to be circled by Allen as a good fit for his defense. Only two of them are currently projected as 1st round picks, and one will be long gone before the Bears go on the clock.

Bailey is the one who is unlikely to make it out of the top 10 this April. He’s been one of the hottest names in the draft for months. The one 1st rounder left is Parker. He has prototypical defensive end size, length, and explosiveness. He was excellent in 2024 with 11 sacks. However, this past season saw a regression in stats. He was very good at the Senior Bowl, though. He is a legitimate option for the 25th pick. However, the most intriguing name on that list is Lawrence.

Allen will have some interesting options.

For the past few months, Lawrence was considered a 3rd or 4th round guy. He was consistently productive at UCF but never had that massive breakout season. Yet his size, length, and explosiveness are real. They pop on tape as well. His tackles for loss per game (TFL/g) sit at 0.92, which is right behind expected top 10 pick Rueben Bain Jr. (0.97). Depending on how the 1st round unfolds, it’s fair to wonder if Lawrence might go considerably higher than the media believes at this stage.

The far more problematic position is defensive tackle. Right now, the only one of the three listed who will go in the first three rounds is Durant. None of the 1st round prospects met the parameters. Most were too heavy or not explosive enough. This puts Dennis Allen in a predicament. The list of options is small, meaning he’ll either have to make some compromises on his desired length and weight or go after a guy he wants early. It puts the team in a serious conundrum. The hope is that some of the players who didn’t participate will check the necessary boxes at their pro days.

As of now, keep Parker’s name cirlced for the 1st round while Durant and Lawrence could be 2nd round options.

The Chicago Bears knew they’d have to make some tough decisions this offseason to get under the salary cap. One of the most prominent was with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. While the 28-year-old has been a quality starter since signing with the team in 2023, his contract has become problematic as the team faces salary cap issues. As a result, they’ve given Edmunds and his agents permission to seek potential trade destinations. Most believe this is a pointless exercise and the linebacker will eventually be released.

NFL insider Albert Breer isn’t so sure about that. He believes Edmunds is valued much more highly in NFL circles than among the fans and media. Given his age and productivity, there is a chance the Bears might not just get a return on him, but a decent one.

Tremaine Edmunds is somehow both heading into his ninth NFL season and still two months shy of his 28th birthday. And so as the Bears seek a potential trade partner to shed a little salary, there should be a market for the big, athletic, still relatively young linebacker.

What sort of return will Edmunds bring? My guess is that an early Day 3 pick is how most teams would value him, because he’s due $15 million this year, with what amounts to a $15 million team option for next year on the contract as well. That market, by the way, is dictated by the fact that most teams are hesitant to pay off-ball linebackers that don’t bring a lot of pass-rush value. Still, some team could get a good player here.

With little cap space to throw around, the only way the Bears can continue overhauling their roster is with draft picks. Getting a potential 4th rounder for Edmunds would be a significant victory for the organization.

The reasons someone would trade for Tremaine Edmunds are simple.

From what we’ve seen over the past several years, the linebacker is good for around 110 tackles, a couple of interceptions, and a sack every year. Several teams wouldn’t mind that kind of production from that position. He was playing great football for the Bears last season before getting injured. He’s well-known for being a great teammate. The only sticking point is that $17.4 million cap hit. That can be dealt with by handing him a limited extension, perhaps another two years. This would lower the hit considerably.

Conversely, the Bears would then have eight picks in the 2026 draft, giving them more flexibility to remake the roster as head coach Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen see fit. Besides, getting a draft pick back for a player you signed using only money is pretty good football business. The challenge will be finding a buyer. Las Vegas, New York, Dallas, and Denver all need help at linebacker. Outside of the Cowboys, all of those teams have enough cap space to facilitate a trade. The Jets have extra picks to spare, as do the Raiders.

All the Bears need is more than one team to be interested.

The allure of Tremaine Edmunds is simple enough. Free agency has few clear answers at the position, which means several teams will be vying for his services were he to hit the market. Would you rather get in a bidding war for him and risk losing out, or flip a mid round pick to the Bears to guarantee landing him? That is what GM Ryan Poles is likely banking on. Somebody won’t want Edmunds reaching free agency and feel a 4th or 5th rounder is a reasonable price to pay. He’s still in his prime and should be a quality starter for a few more years at least.

Some don’t believe it will reach that point. The incoming 2026 draft class has a host of quality linebacker options this year. Teams will end up just taking their chances in that area, letting someone else pay for Edmunds. Chicago will likely move him before the start of the new league year on March 11th. All they need is a couple of teams to make offers. If they can snag any draft pick, it should be considered a win. More capital is a good thing for this organization.