Saturday, April 20, 2024

UFC 271’s Hottest Bets


UFC 271 takes place tonight from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.

The card is filled with some of the UFC’s biggest superstars with middleweight champion Israel Adesanya taking on Robert Whittaker in a rematch for the championship in the main event. The card also features fan favorite and former interim title challenger Derrick Lewis taking on another fan favorite in Tai Tuivasa in a heavyweight clash that is guaranteed to end in a knockout.

Looking up and down the card, there are lots of bets that I like, both favorites and underdogs.

Here’s a look at the money line of the whole main PPV card, according to PPV:

Kyler Phillips (-420) vs. Marcelo Rojo (+330)

Bobby Green (-152) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+128)

Jared Cannonier (-172) vs. Derek Brunson (+144)

Derrick Lewis (-188) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+158)

Israel Adesanya (-290) vs. Robert Whittaker (+235)

My biggest money line bet to keep an on eye on the main card is Derek Brunson. Brunson as an underdog, although not much of an underdog, is definitely something to watch.

If you want some prop bets, there’s definitely a few I’ve got my eye on. If you’re looking for the most guaranteed bet of the card, it’s betting on whether or not the Lewis vs. Tuivasa fight will go the distance or not. The odds are -550 on no, +360 on yes. Lewis is the UFC leader in knockouts, and Tuivasa is no stranger to knockouts himself. There is no chance this fight goes, the distance, which is why the odds are at -550. So obviously you’ll have to spend a lot to make much, but if you’re looking for a guarantee on the card this is it.

Another fight to look at the distance is the main event. Since this is the second time that Adesanya and Whittaker will be meeting, likeliness is that this will be a much more calculated fight than the first time when Adesanya knocked out Whittaker in the second round. It’s likely that each fighter will take a very calculated approach at this fight leading to a long and possibly very close decision. Currently, the books are undecided on this. As it stands right now, the line for this fight going the distance is -112 yes, -112 no. So really, you’re good either way on this one, you just need to make up your mind on which you think is going to happen.

Lastly, the most tempting bet on this entire card for me is Whittaker to win by decision. Currently Whittaker is a +500 underdog to win by decision. Given what we said earlier about this fight, it’s very likely that this will be a very close fight that could go into late rounds, or to the judges’ scorecards. If you believe that Whittaker is back to his old self in this fight, which he has definitely looked like in his latest fights, it’s very possible that Whittaker could give the champ his toughest fight yet, and possible eke out a decision. With the thought that this fight will be very close and go to a decision, seeing Whittaker at +500 to win by decision is almost too tempting to ignore.

According to Ariel Helwani, this is one of the most popular bets place through MGM so far, so there is data to back up this crazy desire. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line moves down later in the day due to people putting money on it.

UFC 271 takes place tonight on PPV. The PPV starts at 9pm CST live on ESPN+ for $75.

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