The San Diego Padres have two strong pitchers lined up to go up against the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Series, and while the Padres have an edge in high-leverage relievers, the Cubs’ rotation depth may end up being a massive difference maker. Craig Counsell named Matthew Boyd the Game 1 starter, and the veteran lefty could set the tone, setting up an ideal series dominated by Chicago’s starting pitchers as the Cubs vie for a trip to the NLDS.
Boyd has been a workhorse since July, tied with Tarik Skubal for the most innings pitched, with 93 in their last 15 starts. Boyd’s last regular-season start was a seven-inning effort against the Miami Marlins in which he allowed a single run on five hits. Strikeouts have decreased in 2026, but despite the lack of swing-and-misses, Boyd has posted a 3.28 ERA in his last six starts, with a 2.99 FIP that suggests he’s limiting damage from opposing hitters. The ground ball rate has increased to 45% since the end of August for Boyd, as the lefty has only given up one home run in the last 35.2 innings of work.
We know starting pitchers are on a shorter leash during the postseason, except for a few truly elite pitchers. In 2025, Boyd was pitching great in Game 1 against the Padres at Wrigley Field, but after allowing a one-out single in the fifth inning, he was taken out before he faced San Diego’s lineup for the third time. Maybe the Cubs will have a similar plan Tuesday night, but there’s no question that Boyd’s stamina could be a massive difference maker in the series opener.
The limitations in the Cubs’ bullpen are certainly worrying, but Boyd has pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 15 starts. If he can get into the sixth inning in Game 1 against the Padres, then the Cubs wouldn’t have to rely on as many relievers, which would be ideal because, despite recent success, those high-leverage relief options haven’t exactly been rock-solid during the final month of the season.
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Yet, even if Boyd doesn’t go as deep as desired, the Cubs’ rotation depth may ultimately be their biggest advantage over the Padres.
In a best-of-three series, the Cubs will have Boyd, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, Shōta Imanaga, David Peterson, Javier Assad, and Aaron Civale, who all have the ability to pitch multiple innings. So, in theory, Counsell can shorten the games by utilizing his other starters mid-game.
We could end up seeing something like: Boyd for 4-5 innings, Holmes for 2 innings, Daniel Palencia and Ryan Rolison close it out in Game 1. Then, Gausman for 4-5 innings, Peterson for 2 innings, Civale for 2 innings, and Ryan Zeferjahn to close it out. If there’s a Game 3, Imanaga for 4-5 innings, Assad for 2 innings, Palencia, Zeferjahn, and Rolison to close it out.
At one point, the Cubs had five starting pitchers on the injured list at the same time. The rotation depth was killing the team, and the team had no answers. Now, as the Wild Card Series approaches, the rotation depth may be what gets them into the next round of the playoffs.
