The Chicago Bears seem to take a home run swing on the trade market every decade or so. They flipped two 1st round picks to Denver for Jay Cutler in 2009. Then they did it again in 2018 to secure Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders. Sure enough, around 8 years later, it was general manager Ryan Poles’ turn. He went in a different direction, sending two 1sts to the Tennessee Titans for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. It was the highest price ever paid for a player at that position in NFL history. Inevitably, some experts felt Poles gave up too much.
Reports indicated that Tennessee had repeatedly rebuffed other teams the moment they asked after Simmons. Poles, who knew Titans GM Mike Borgonzi, probably understood that the only way to get his foot in the door was by coming in with a high offer immediately.
It worked.
The two sides worked out a deal that sent the 29-year-old All-Pro to the division-leading Bears. Just two weeks later, it appears some people have changed their opinions on the cost of that trade. That includes ESPN. Benjamin Solak explained why it’s suddenly looking like a serious bargain for the Bears.
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“It’s important to evaluate trades in a vacuum, and two firsts for Simmons was a steep price no matter which way you slice it. But it does bear saying: That trade looks so much less expensive when you see the price the Jaguars paid for Davis, a player who simply (1) does not play as many snaps as Simmons, (2) does not play as many high-value snaps as Simmons does, (3) is not as productive as Simmons on the snaps that they play and (4) has not produced as consistently as Simmons has.
The Bears’ GM moved all-in for a defensive tackle just like James Gladstone and the Jaguars did. The playoffs will decide how history views these trades. But the Bears sure got a lot of cover this week, and that’s never a bad thing.”
Jeffery Simmons impacts games far more significantly.
This is not to say Jordan Davis is a bad player. He’s been plenty solid throughout his career with the Philadelphia Eagles, helping them win a title in 2024. However, he has always had limitations. He isn’t much use as an interior pass rusher. His run defense was his primary selling point, and even that seemed to taper off in the past year or two. Jacksonville likely felt they had the infrastructure to maximize what he does best and were willing to pay a premium to get him. Remember, Philadelphia drafted him in the 1st round, yet still shipped him out for a 1st and 2nd.
Davis has 9.5 sacks in his career (4.5 seasons). Jeffery Simmons already has 6 this year alone. If that weren’t enough to convince you that the Bears got a way better deal? Simmons has more run stops (16) than Davis (15) does this season as well. He is a far superior pass rusher and an equally good run defender. When they say the man is a superstar, they’re not kidding. If you’re going to give up two 1st round picks for anybody, it’s a guy like that. Better still, the deal looks increasingly favorable from the Bears’ perspective.
The more the Bears win, the cheaper it gets.
Winning games automatically decreases the value of 1st round picks. That is the nature of the draft. The Bears are currently 7-2. Presuming they make the playoffs, that guarantees them at least the 21st pick in the draft, which is worth 800 points. By contrast, the 10th pick is worth 1,300 points. With every win in the postseason Chicago has, the less valuable that pick becomes. If they can make the playoffs twice over the next two seasons, they can make to where those two 1st round picks work out to the value of one 1st round pick.
The odds of hitting a pick in the mid-to-late 20s are around 25-35%. That is for finding a starter. Finding a player like Simmons? Those odds get way longer. The Bears were essentially willing to trade two possible starting players for 4-5 years of peak Simmons. It is a worthwhile gamble from their perspective, and ESPN seems to agree. A rare concession for them.
