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The Cubs prioritized pitching and defense this offseason and for the most they’ve done a great job improving in those areas through their own homegrown development and in free agency. However, there’s still one spot that doesn’t really coincide with the idea of having a good defense. This is a case when reading the back of a player’s baseball card can really deceive you because in no way should anyone view Eric Hosmer as a gold glove first baseman.
Hosmer isn’t good defensively, he’s not average, he’s not below average, he’s the worst defensive first baseman since 2016.
I know that defensive metrics aren’t perfect, but as fans we can only use what’s available. If you take a look at Baseball Savant’s OAA (Outs Above Average), Hosmer is ranked 35th out of 35 qualified first basemen with -39 OAA from 2016-22. And the thing is, it’s not just that Hosmer has been bad, it’s the fact he is so much worse than everyone else because Joey Votto is next to last in OAA and he’s at -23. A difference of 16 from worst to second worst!
In the runs prevented category, same time frame 2016-22, Hosmer is also last at -29, and again there’s a huge gap between him and the next worst at -17 runs prevented. Here’s how Hosmer ranks in OAA and runs prevented every season since 2016.
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2016 (37 players ranked)
OAA: -9, tied for last
Runs Prevented: -7, tied for last
2017 (34 players ranked)
OAA: -5, tied for third worst
Runs Prevented: -4, tied for second worst
2018 (38 players ranked)
OAA: -10, last
Runs Prevented: -8, last
2019 (31 players ranked)
OAA: -11, second worst
Runs Prevented: -8, second worst
2020 (40 players ranked)
OAA: -2, tied for fourth worst
Runs Prevented: -2, tied for third worst
2021 (35 players ranked)
OAA: 0, 16th
Runs Prevented: 0, 16th
2022 (36 players ranked)
OAA: -2, 20th
Runs Prevented: -1, 20th
On the bright side, Hosmer is trending up the last few years, so there’s that.
Anyway, during Monday’s game I shared a clip of Cubs pitcher Hayden Wesneski making an error. As much as I don’t think Hosmer is good, I only pointed out that he couldn’t knock down the ball, which got to him on a bounce. But man, San Diego Padres fans came out swinging, unleashing all their pent up anger toward him because it turns out this was a regular occurrence with Hosmer in San Diego.
And again to be fair, this is a tough play, but a good first baseman at least gets his glove on this. Hosmer? Well, take a look.
These are just some of the many comments reacting to the play from Padres fans.
Listen, I wasn’t a huge fan of the Cubs signing Hosmer mostly because of his hitting profile. He hits a ton of ground balls, he doesn’t hit for power and on top of that he’s not good on defense. Hosmer’s numbers from 2022 only look good because, to his credit, Hosmer hit like crazy for six weeks and then was a below average hitter for the rest of the year.
Even with Seiya Suzuki’s injury most likely forcing the Cubs to use Trey Mancini in right field to start the season, the Cubs still have a left-handed batter that can play first base in Edwin Rios, if they don’t think Matt Mervis is ready.
Hosmer is only signed to the league minimum, so it’s not like he’s guaranteed to stay on the roster deep into the regular season if he struggles. Let’s just hope the defense can at least get to average when he’s out there.
Sometimes the numbers do match the tape.
He is the Padres fans “Jason Hayward.” Not his fault he parlayed a World Series into a great contract. He won’t finish the season with the Cubs. They won’t need him.
Tom Waddle, I agree with what you said. I also agree with what the nerds said. As a first baseman, I had 2 plans. 1) Catch the ball. 2) Knock it down and keep it in front of me. That meant some times all I could do was throw some part of my body at the ball and knock it down. Also, if you study the video tape, Hosmer set up too early on the play, locking himself in to that position without a way to adjust.
A bunch of nerds talking crap online from the comfort of their couch about how easy it is to scoop up a 85mph ball that bounces 3 feet in front of you. Welcome to 2023.