Most Optimistic Outlook for 2026 Cubs May Hinge On This Comeback

I know that fans don’t necessarily like to praise the team when the season ends in a disappointing loss in the playoffs, but it’s kind of incredible how the Chicago Cubs made it through 2025 with so many injuries to their starting pitchers. It was a major factor in the NLDS as the team couldn’t quite match the Milwaukee Brewers arms out of the bullpen and the rapid regression of Shōta Imanaga made him unplayable. Star rookie Cade Horton was out and of course for almost the entire season Justin Steele was watching from afar.

Steele, who made four starts in 2025, before he was shut down with an elbow injury that led to season-ending surgery, probably brings the Cubs the biggest hope for optimism in 2026. It wasn’t quite Tommy John surgery, but it was still a major procedure as Steele had to repair his flexor tendon and ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.

Six month after Steele pitched in his last game for the Cubs, he was back to throwing a baseball at the team’s training facilities in Arizona.

When I mention the most optimistic outlook for the 2026 Cubs, it’s not pointing to Steele being ready by Opening Day or even him being back on the mound in April. Honestly, I’m not even expecting Steele to perform up to his standards immediately either.

The Cubs will most likely take a cautious approach with Steele’s comeback, but the key here is how he pitches in the second half of the 2026 season. There’s no guarantee that Steele will return to form, but we’re talking about a legit difference-maker in the starting rotation.

From 2022-24, Steele made 78 starts with the Cubs, threw 427 innings and his 3.10 ERA in those three years combined ranked No. 8, among all MLB starting pitchers. Steele finished fifth in the 2023 NL Cy Young Award voting and when healthy he’s been a dog on the mound for the Cubs.

Yes, the Cubs obviously have to add on offense, but as we were reminded in the postseason, pitching is king and having Steele back in action could end up being the biggest boost this team gets in 2026.

As we approach the offseason here’s a quick breakdown of the Cubs’ starting pitching depth aside from Steele.

Matthew Boyd
Cade Horton
Shōta Imanaga (details on contract option)
Jameson Taillon
Colin Rea (club option)
Javier Assad
Ben Brown
Jordan Wicks
Jaxon Wiggins

Still need an ace type and maybe it’s too much to ask, but we’ve seen Steele pitch like an ace in the past. His return may just be the difference the Cubs need to make a deeper run in 2026.