Can Cubs Steal a Japanese Phenom Away From Dodgers?

This shouldn’t come as a surprise and at this point it should be the bare minimum expectation that the Chicago Cubs are scouting Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. The real question is whether or not the Cubs can steal Sasaki away from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 22-year-old pitcher made his second start of the season for the Chiba Lotte Marines of the NPB this past Sunday and the Cubs were reportedly one of five teams that had scouts in attendance to watch Sasaki. The right-hander threw a career-high 111 pitches.

Along with the Cubs, the Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds and of course the Dodgers had a scout observing Sasaki, who ended his day by pitching four perfect innings after allowing a few runs early on.

I can’t help but let out a little chuckle that Sasaki throwing 94-97mph was seen as a slight disappointment. Yet, it just goes to show how special of a pitcher he is. The righty threw a perfect game two years ago, when he struck out 19, including 13 in a row, while averaging 99.5mph with his fastball.

There’s little doubt about his talent. Sasaki is a bonafide stud.

Sasaki is now in his fourth year pitching professionally in Japan and his numbers certainly back up the hype that has surrounded him. In 2023, he recorded a 1.78 ERA in 91 innings, striking out 135, while only walking 17. Sasaki was limited to 15 starts because of an oblique injury.

Overall, including his two starts thus far in 2024, Sasaki has posted a 2.04 ERA in 295.2 innings in Japan, with an incredible 0.85 WHIP and a strikeout/walk ratio of nearly 7/1.

There is no guarantee that Sasaki will be posted following the 2024 season, but rumors continue to circulate that that will very much be the case.

Via MLB.com.

It’s possible Sasaki could be posted as soon as next offseason. Reports out of Japan suggest he has a provision in his contract that would force Chiba Lotte to post him at his request, though neither the team nor the player has confirmed those reports.

We saw Yoshinobu Yamamoto sign the largest free agent contract for a pitcher in MLB history this past offseason with the Dodgers and although some view Sasaki as a better prospect coming over from the NPB, he won’t be in line for one those mega deals if he’s posted after the 2024 season.

Via MLB.com.

Many consider Sasaki, who is three years younger than Yamamoto, to be a better prospect. However, if he is posted by Chiba Lotte prior to his 25th birthday, he wouldn’t be eligible to land a megadeal like Yamamoto’s. Players under 25 who have not reached six years of service in a foreign major league are subject to MLB’s international amateur signing bonus pool rules, setting a cap on their contracts.

So, if Sasaki does get posted by his team, then there will definitely be a frenzy for him in free agency, but it’s not going to be a situation where he picks a team over the other because of money. This will be similar to Shohei Ohtani’s initial free agent period in 2017, when he first signed in MLB with the Los Angeles Angels.

The Cubs have had success signing Japanese stars, inking Seiya Suzuki to a five-year deal and this past winter wooing left-handed starting pitcher Shōta Imanaga. They were interested in Yamamoto and Ohtani and will of course pursuit Sasaki as soon as he’s made available.

However, is it likely that the Cubs or any other team can steal Sasaki away from the Dodgers? Well, probably not.

Here’s what USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote back in March.

Via USA Today.

‘Just when you think the Dodgers can’t possibly sign any more stars, several GMs believe that Roki Sasaki, 22, one of the best pitchers in the world, already has plans to sign with the Dodgers after the season.

“Every team in baseball wants this guy,” one GM told USA TODAY Sports, “but there’s no way he’s going anywhere else but the Dodgers. We all know it.”‘

Crazier things have happened, but it sure does sound like Sasaki has already determined where he will pitch in MLB and it’s going to be the Dodgers.

I’ll give the Cubs a good chance to sign Sasaki as soon as Shohei’s former interpreter bets on the Dodgers getting the pitcher because it turns out that Ippei Mizuhara is one of the worst gamblers ever.