Matt Nagy isn’t fired yet. There is still time for him to turn the ship around before it plunges over a steep waterfall. The Chicago Bears head coach is running out of time though. This season is not going well for him in every sense. Not only is the team 3-4 and in danger of falling out of the playoff race. His offense is the worst in the NFL and rookie QB Justin Fields is struggling. This is truly the doomsday scenario from his perspective.
So what happens next? There are 10 games left. Nagy has shown a keen survival instinct in the past. Perhaps he may yet find a way to turn the season around. If he doesn’t though, it’s a surefire thing the Bears will make a change come January. At that point, another question becomes prominent. Who do they seek to replace him? Most are already operating on the obvious assumption.
It will be somebody with an offensive background.
That makes sense. Fields is the focal point of the Bears’ efforts moving forward. They must do everything in their power to make him a success. Hiring a head coach with a strong background working with quarterbacks is almost standard procedure in the minds of many. However, fans may be shocked by what actually happens. While it is fair to think the organization will do this, there are more reasons than you realize they might go the opposite direction.
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Reason #1: A unique head coach hiring trend
A source reached out to me recently stating that there is a strong possibility the Bears look at defensive coaches next offseason if Nagy is out. Why? The reason offered was because Nagy was supposed to be an offensive guru. That turned into an absolute disaster. Often in cases like this, the compulsion of an NFL organization is to wipe the slate clean by hiring the next coach from the opposite side of the ball.
Curious if that was actually true, I decided to do some research. Since 2010, there have been a total of 80 head coaching changes. This does not include interim moves during a season. Only the permanent variety. In those instances, NFL teams moved from one side of the ball to the other in expertise a total of 44 times. Or 55%. So there is some validity to that idea. Especially for an organization like the Bears.
Reason #2: The Chicago Bears suck at finding offensive specialists
George Halas retired for good as a head coach in 1968. Since then, the Bears have hired four head coaches who came in with deep offensive backgrounds. Jim Dooley, Mike Ditka, Marc Trestman, and Matt Nagy. In their 20 combined seasons running the franchise, they produced a top 5 offense twice. One in 1985 and the other in 2013. That is it. The rest were either closer to average or outright terrible.
None of those men proved to be true innovators either. Ditka was a former tight end who’d been a special teams coach in Dallas. Trestman was an okay offensive coordinator in Oakland before finding his greatest success in Canada. Nagy? It is clearer than ever his reputation as a guru came from standing in the orbit of Andy Reid. Every time the Chicago Bears have tried this, it hasn’t gone as hoped.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZF8RMPKd0o&ab_channel=MypeSports
Reason #3: Defensive coaches seem to be doing just fine developing QBs
This last part is something people tend to gloss over way too often. While it makes perfect sense that an offensive coach and a quarterback can make for a beautiful partnership ala Drew Brees and Sean Payton? This hasn’t stopped defensive coaches from having lots of success at developing QBs too. There are several examples.
- Bill Belichick and Tom Brady
- Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning
- Ron Rivera and Cam Newton
- Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson
- John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson
- Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill
- Josh Allen and Sean McDermott
The lesson here is that defensive background doesn’t mean a coach lacks the understanding of how to develop on the other side of the ball. Good head coaches are good head coaches. Plain and simple. There is no shortage of worthy options on the defensive side this upcoming hiring cycle. Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay, Leslie Frazier in Buffalo, Dennis Allen in New Orleans, Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati, Raheem Morris in Los Angeles, and Wink Martindale in Baltimore. Not to mention Jim Leonard at Wisconsin.
It isn’t crazy to think there is a really good head coach somewhere in that lot. The Chicago Bears wouldn’t be stupid to explore.