The next big quarterback domino finally fell. With just over three weeks to go before the draft, it was becoming common knowledge the New York Jets were planning to take a quarterback at #2 overall. The only unanswered question is what they planned to do with their starter of the past three years, Sam Darnold. An answer finally arrived courtesy of Adam Schefter.
New York is shipping the 23-year old to the Carolina Panthers for three draft picks including a 2nd rounder in 2022. A higher price than many experts predicted. No doubt a sign that his market was strong or the Panthers liked him enough to ensure they got their guy. This move essentially means Teddy Bridgewater is on borrowed time in Carolina. It will be interesting to see if they keep him on as a backup. That doesn’t seem likely given his heavy price tag.
The bigger question is how this affects the rest of the quarterback landscape.
Filed to ESPN: Jets trading QB Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers for a 2021 sixth-round pick and second- and fourth-round picks in 2022, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 5, 2021
Specifically the Chicago Bears. So let’s get the easy part out of the way. With Darnold going to Carolina, it removes what many believed could be a valuable trade chip for Chicago to manipulate in another effort to pursue Russell Wilson. Rumors have persisted for almost a month that the Seattle Seahawks liked Darnold but the Jets hadn’t yet been willing to deal him. Chicago could’ve tried to parlay him into a three-team deal that ultimately landed them Wilson. That is no longer possible.
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The much bigger impact comes in the upcoming NFL draft. With Carolina securing Darnold, the odds of them selecting a quarterback at #8 overall have significantly dropped. Many considered them a lock to take one of the top five in this class. That is no longer plausible. It suddenly creates a stronger likelihood that one or two of them fall further than expected. Thus opening the window for the Bears to move up for one if they wish.
Sam Darnold trade has rocked the top 10
It’s a foregone conclusion that a quarterback will go in each of the first three picks. Trevor Lawrence will go #1. Zach Wilson is expected to go #2. Then it’s whoever the San Francisco 49ers covet at #3. That means two of the trio of Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones face a much more uncertain landscape from #4 on. It’s possible the Atlanta Falcons could take one of them at that spot or trade it to somebody who will.
If not? Things get really interesting. Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit, and Carolina are after them. None are expected to take a quarterback. Denver at #9 is a small possibility but indications are they’re more likely to go defense or trade back. Dallas at #10 has Dak Prescott. The Giants at #11 have Daniel Jones, the Eagles at #12 seem committed to Jalen Hurts, the Chargers at #13 have Justin Herbert, and the Vikings at #14 have Kirk Cousins. There is a real possibility the next QB may not go until the 15th pick of the New England Patriots. That is how impactful this Sam Darnold trade could be.
If the Bears are indeed eyeing a QB, this is great news.
It would drastically reduce the cost to move up from #20 if there is one they covet. Rumors hint they like Justin Fields. There is even a possibility one could slip to them without having to move up at all. Would Jones or Lance be a worthwhile selection? Given the lack of long-term security this team has at QB, it would be hard to pass up. So while the Darnold move likely kills their hopes of landing Russell Wilson, it opens a new door in the draft.