If you ask the experts at the moment, most of them will say the same thing. Don’t expect the 2026 Chicago Bears to mirror the 2025 version. That team last year caught lightning in a bottle. They led the league in takeaways on defense and managed seven 4th quarter comebacks. It’s widely known that those two stats are highly variable and almost impossible to replicate year to year. That, combined with sitting in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions, means they’re destined for a downturn.
Even head coach Ben Johnson acknowledged that reality a couple of weeks ago. The Bears are the #1 regression candidate in the league. That certainly provides plenty of motivation for him and his players. However, not everybody is on that train. Mike Sando of The Athletic spoke to one NFL executive who believes the opposite is true. He thinks the conditions are right for the Bears to make a surprise run in the NFC, toppling the heavily favored Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl.
The one voter ranking Chicago atop the NFC said the Bears have an elite coach in Ben Johnson, a rising, super-talented quarterback in Caleb Williams and enough talent to take another step.
“I know all the regression stuff,” this voter said, alluding to the Bears’ ability to win seven games last season after trailing in the final two minutes. “The coach is really good, they have a really good ascending quarterback, the roster is super talented. They did all the right things in the offseason to fight the regression.”
History says the Chicago Bears are in a good spot.
When you have a top-flight head coach and a top 5-10 quarterback, things can happen. You don’t always need perfect conditions to make a run. The 2019 Chiefs had a league-average defense, leaning heavily on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to work magic. It was also true of the 2012 Ravens. Their once-great defense had regressed, but Joe Flacco got hot at the right time, and they went all the way. It was the same the year before with the 9-7 New York Giants with Eli Manning.
Yes, typically in this league, you need balance. Both the offense and defense must be good to overcome the heavy hitters in the playoffs. Right now, on paper, the Chicago Bears aren’t there. They have the offense. Caleb Williams, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, D’Andre Swift, Darnell Wright, and Joe Thuney headline a deep and talented group. The problem is the defense. It doesn’t have any young stars to speak of at the moment. Jaylon Johnson and Montez Sweat are their best players. Johnson has been with the team since 2020, and Sweat is in his 30s.
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On top of this, you have the ongoing health crisis with Kyle Gordon and Coby Bryant both out for at least the next month.
The Bears don’t need everybody to believe in them.
They certainly didn’t last year. Most picked Chicago to finish dead last in the division again. It would take Johnson at least a year to clear up the mess left behind by Matt Eberflus. That it barely took half the season to find that identity speaks to Johnson’s coaching ability. He is much more than just an offensive wizard. He has everybody in that locker room laser-focused on one objective: winning. Usually, when that happened in the past, the Bears have made deep playoff runs. You saw it with Lovie Smith and Mike Ditka.
Is the talent on this roster up to the task? Offensively, yes. Defensively? It’s hard to say. The 2006 team reached the Super Bowl with what was, honestly, an average offense. There is no reason to think the 2026 team can’t achieve the same with the opposite conditions. If anything, it might be more favorable that way. It means they have the quarterback this time. When that is the case, all things are possible.
