Sam Darnold is one of the big mysteries of this quarterback cycle. By now it’s become pretty apparent the New York Jets are preparing to move on from the former #3 overall pick. Their new regime covets BYU standout Zach Wilson with the #2 pick and it’s quite obvious. That means it’s only a matter of time before Darnold is dealt. So what is the price tag likely to be?

According to Kimberly Martin of ESPN, not what some experts projected. After initially believing the Jets might be able to land either a late 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick and mid round pick, the compensation may be tumbling further than expected. Some around the NFL believe the best the Jets will be able to do is a 3rd round pick. Why? A combination of his poor play since being drafted in 2018 and the fact he only has one year left on his rookie contract. Nobody is likely to pick up his 5th-year option which would likely cost almost $19 million.

Just mentioned this on @GetUpESPN: Talked to three NFL GMs about the market for Sam Darnold. I asked what’s the most they’d be willing to give up: Two said a 3rd Rd pick — with one saying even a late 3rd would be “a little rich.” The other GM said “maybe” a 3rd or conditional 4th

— Kimberley A. Martin (@ByKimberleyA) March 29, 2021

The reasons I’m told Darnold is a tough sell:

🔹A team has to really believe in his talent, which is difficult to do when he’s been one of the worst QBs over the past three seasons.

 🔹The other problem? His option…

— Kimberley A. Martin (@ByKimberleyA) March 29, 2021

… I was repeatedly told whoever trades for Darnold likely won’t pick up his option this spring. So, you’d only have a year of him in a new org, in a new system, working w/ new teammates while he’s trying to figure it all out *and* the team is trying to work out his bad habits

— Kimberley A. Martin (@ByKimberleyA) March 29, 2021

At this point, the odds of him being a starter elsewhere in 2021 are remote.

Now here’s an interesting hypothetical for Chicago Bears fans. Would they prefer to take the best QB available in the 3rd round of this upcoming draft or would they rather use it to gamble on Darnold? Remember he’s still just 23-years old with plenty of talent. Spending a year behind Andy Dalton under the tutelage of Matt Nagy and John DeFilippo could end up doing him good. It would give the team a young, but experienced backup who may become their starter moving forward.

Barring that? Another reason the Bears may like this development is the Russell Wilson situation. It’s been established that Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll likes Darnold. Swinging a trade to get him and them packaging the QB and picks for Wilson might be even easier than it was before.

Sam Darnold is still worth a calculated risk

Giving up a 2nd round pick is one thing. Chicago has proven they can regularly find starters in that range under Ryan Pace. A 3rd round pick though? That is far more palatable. Darnold is around the same age as several rookies will be this season. People love to pile on him for how bad things were in New York. While some of that was his fault, the Jets must shoulder most of the responsibility.

They surrounded him with poor talent and subjected him to poor coaching. He never really had a chance. A fresh start in a new environment where he doesn’t have to be “the guy” could be what he needs to get his career back on track. Stashing him on the roster while retaining their top two picks to further enhance the offense isn’t a bad plan. At least when compared to their alternatives.

Wilson notwithstanding of course.

There are some who still think the market is big enough to where the Jets can get a 2nd rounder for Sam Darnold. However, the decision by GM Joe Douglas to wait may have cost them that opportunity as other teams have moved on to other options. A 3rd round pick might be the best he can get and the Bears wouldn’t be totally unwise to make that offer.