Drafting a quarterback feels like a probability at this point for the Chicago Bears. Andy Dalton is working on a one-year deal. Nick Foles could be traded. They don’t have anybody on the depth chart who provides any clear direction on their future. Signs and rumors point to the upcoming draft as to where GM Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy make their next move.

It’s a matter of who their target ends up being. Will it be in the 1st round? More than a few people are convinced the Bears are a threat to move up from #20. Pace isn’t the type of guy to fear bold moves. Or perhaps they could wait until Day 2 of the action to grab somebody they covet in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Looking at the landscape, there are six viable names who feel like possibilities for them.

Here is a ranking of each one, but not by overall talent level. Instead, this will be a list according to bust risk. Whether each QB is more likely to flame out and the reasons why. Some might be surprised by the order.

Chicago Bears QB draft options based on bust risk

#6 – Mac Jones (Alabama)

Being the lowest on this list doesn’t automatically mean he’ll end up being a good quarterback. It’s more of a strong likelihood he avoids being a truly bad quarterback. Somebody not worth how high he gets drafted. Jones plays the position like a professional already. He sees the field well, goes through progressions, throws with consistent accuracy, and can navigate the pocket under pressure. Yes, his talent ceiling isn’t as high as others, but he proved at Alabama that he can not just beat but dissect the best defenses in college football if he’s given weapons.

Likely QB window: Andy Dalton to Kirk Cousins

#5 – Justin Fields (Ohio State)

From a pure talent perspective? Fields has a case to be called the best in the entire 2021 class. There isn’t a thing he can’t do. He has speed, strength, size, arm talent, and throws with accuracy at all levels of the field. The guy owned one of the best conferences in college football for two years and put up huge numbers. Yet draft experts are wary of him. Why? Namely his average processing speed and slower throwing motion. Though such issues can seem minor now, NFL defenses have a way of exploiting them. Fields has the ability to be the best QB in this group, but only if he lands in the right situation.

Likely QB window: Robert Griffin III to John Elway

#4 – Kyle Trask (Florida)

It’s interesting how quickly people cooled on Trask by the end of the 2020 college season. This despite the guy throwing 43 touchdown passes in just 12 games. Against the SEC no less. It was the best passing performance in the history of the Florida program but all anybody could talk about with what is wrong with him. Namely his lack of mobility and relatively modest arm strength. This is somewhat fair given how little room for error the NFL offers. At the same time, his 6’5 size, good accuracy, and ability to play from the pocket are enough to make a quality starter in the pros or at least a high-end backup.

Likely QB window: Nick Foles to Drew Bledsoe

#3 – Trey Lance (North Dakota State)

One thing can’t be denied about Lance. He’s an athlete. A really good one. His ability to run is among the best in this class. A true threat with his legs. He also has a solid arm with the type of velocity teams would be happy with. That being said, there are concerns about him that shouldn’t be ignored. His deep ball isn’t good. Too many of the few shots he takes can fall short. He also wasn’t asked to throw the ball a lot. Just 318 total attempts in his college career. That is less than Trubisky. Never mind all of them were against the FCS. People keep talking up his intelligence but the reality is the NFL is a huge jump from where he is right now. It’s hard to know if he’ll be able to handle the quantum leap in playing speed.

Likely QB window: Geno Smith to Russell Wilson

#2 – Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)

Mond deserves a lot of credit for building himself up to this point. He never really had much help at Texas A&M in terms of surrounding talent. Yet he still managed to improve every single year from an efficiency standpoint. He’s highly athletic with good size and plays the game well at the short-to-intermediate passing levels. The problem is he comes across as too much of a game manager. He isn’t overly aggressive as a passer and isn’t that good at throwing the deep ball when he bothers to try. Could that change? Sure. History says it’s a lot to hope for though. QBs who tend to play it safe don’t usually flip the switch later in their careers. Can he overcome this drawback with better precision and big plays with his legs? Hard to say.

Likely QB window: DeShone Kizer to Colin Kaepernick

#1 – Davis Mills (Stanford)

He was the highest-rated high school QB coming out for a reason. Mills is a talented young man. Don’t let anybody tell you differently. Size? Arm strength? Accuracy? He has all those traits. There is also a degree of mobility there that gets understated. Not to mention his tendency to deliver his best in big moments. The problems with him aren’t hard to spot. A shaky history of knee injuries, his raw throwing mechanics, and the fact he only started 11 games in his college career. These are three major red flags. Yet his obvious potential stands out on tape a lot. So much of his future will depend on a mixture of luck and the right coaching. Two things the Chicago Bears haven’t always had.

Likely QB window: Jarrett Stidham to Dak Prescott