The Chicago Bears 2021 season will be defined by one thing. Whether or not they find a quarterback. That sounds like too simple of a statement but it’s true. This is the nature of the modern NFL. Either you have a worthwhile quarterback or you don’t. The Bears do not and haven’t for a long time. GM Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy, for all their faults, at least recognize the problem.

So they plan to throw every resource available to them into finding the right guy. Somebody who gives this team a chance to really compete for not only a playoff run but a Super Bowl. It’s hard to imagine something like that happening. Yet this is the stated goal. People are talking about all the possibilities, and there are many.

The question remains though. Who is the most likely?

To find an answer, I compiled a list of every noteworthy QB, veteran or draft prospect that the Bears would conceivably view as an option. Then I ranked them in order from least likely to be the starter in 2021 to most. Get ready for one or two surprises.

Chicago Bears have lots of options but only some are likely

#15: Mitch Trubisky

Plenty of Bears fans are still holding out hope of running it back with Maserati Mitch one more time. Retain him on a cheap deal and use every resource available to bolster the offense around him. It just doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen. All signs point to head coach Matt Nagy being done with the Trubisky experiment and the quarterback himself is rumored to have no desire to return as well. This feels like a mutual parting of ways. They gave it three years. It didn’t work. Time for fresh starts all around.

#14: Deshaun Watson

Watson is the golden goose. The Holy Grail. That one player who can literally change the fortunes of a franchise overnight. There is no question the Bears would be willing to sell the farm to get him. Unfortunately, a number of other teams will likely be willing to do the same and several of those teams have more resources to spend than Chicago. No top 10 pick. No QB prospect to send back in return. Maybe if Watson truly wanted to join the Bears it would be different but he’ll have his choice of destinations. Best to let this one slowly fade away.

#13: Dak Prescott

The Prescott situation in Dallas is weird. Everybody keeps saying they want to make it work. Yet days continue to pass with no long-term extension in sight. It’s possible Dallas will be forced to franchise tag him again. If it gets to that point, Jerry Jones will have a big decision to make. Keep trying to extend him through 2021 and risk losing him to free agency or trade the QB for two 1st round picks. One can bet the Bears would be quite interested in such a deal but like with Watson, other teams will have picks of higher value to offer.

#12: Zach Wilson

Plenty of Bears fans are still lamenting the team going on that three-game winning streak to end the 2020 season. A run that torpedoed any hope they had of a top 10 pick. This would’ve put Chicago in a position to possibly go after Wilson. Many consider the BYU product the second-best quarterback in the 2021 draft class behind Trevor Lawrence. He has good size, mobility, arm strength, a quick release, and plenty of accuracy. The Bears have had good fortune with BYU quarterbacks in the past too. Sadly, all expectations are he’ll be gone before the end of the top 5.

#11: Justin Fields

Ohio State has a poor track record at the quarterback position in the NFL. Hopes are high that Fields will finally break that streak. He certainly has the talent. Great size, plenty of arm strength, good accuracy, and loads of mobility. When he is hot, he can rack up stats in a hurry. There are concerns about his ability to read and process defenses but not enough to hurt his standing as a 1st round lock. People aren’t entirely sure where he’ll land. It could be in the top 5 but some think he may slip to the bottom of the top 10. That would at least make a trade up feasible for the Bears, but not likely.

#10: Trey Lance

It’s just hard not to imagine the Chicago Bears brass looking at Lance and not having immediate Trubisky flashbacks. A physically gifted young QB who can throw and run with equal success. However, he also has just one year of starting experience. Just 318 total passes. For Lance, it’s even worse because all of his games were against FCS competition. So he’s an even bigger projection than Trubisky was back in 2017. Are Pace and Nagy really going to stake their jobs on him? Not unless every other avenue is closed to them.

#9: Jimmy Garoppolo

There are some reasons to think the Bears would have interest in Garoppolo. He got the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2019. When healthy, he can be an effective quarterback. He’s also a local kid, going to high school at Rolling Meadows and college at Eastern Illinois. So why is he not higher on the list. Jimmy G has struggled to stay healthy for one. Two lower body injuries ended his 2018 and 2020 seasons. San Francisco also doesn’t seem eager to trade him. Both because they still think he can help them win and the low odds of them finding an upgrade.

#8: Derek Carr

Rumors are swirling that the Bears have a high interest in Carr. It isn’t hard to see why. He’s only 30-years old and coming off the best season of his career (over 4,000 yards, 27 TDs, 9 INTs). There are two years left on his current contract at an average of around $21 million. Highly affordable for an NFL starting quarterback of his caliber. Nagy knows him well from his time in Kansas City too. The problem is the price tag. Las Vegas doesn’t seem totally opposed to moving him, but only if a team is willing to pay. Belief is two 1st round picks are the ballpark and possibly more. Carr is a good player but Chicago may be understandably reluctant to pay that.

#7: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Remember the Chicago Bears enter 2021 with salary cap problems. They’re already projected to be $7-9 million in the red before the offseason officially begins. So they be forced to settle for shopping the bargain bin to find help. If that is the case, then there is nobody better to take a one-year flier on than “Fitzmagic.” The 39-year old continues to defy his age and his doubters, helping Miami to reach 10-6 this past season. He isn’t perfect but the guy knows how to make plays and breathe life into an offense. It just doesn’t seem like the Bears will see him as making a splash. More like settling for the bronze medal.

#6: Jameis Winston

Winston can best be described as the ultimate wild card. You never know what you’ll get from him game to game, series to series, or even pass to pass. He could deliver a 54-yard strike for a touchdown on one play. Then on the very next throw, cough up a 37-yard pick-six. He threw 33 TDs and 30 interceptions in 2019. Has he learned anything useful after spending a year in New Orleans under Sean Payton? Some teams might be willing to find out. His talent is still high quality. It’s just impossible to say if a team can trust him. Word is he’d like to stay with the Saints, but he could be an option if the Bears get desperate enough.

#5: Mac Jones

Sometimes teams have a tendency to overthink players in the draft. Especially when quarterbacks are involved. Is Jones the most talented in his class? No. His size, arm strength, and mobility could best be called “fine.” Yet there are aspects of his games that deserve recognition. His accuracy is top-notch and he navigates the pocket and escapes trouble quite well. He can process the field and has the vision to find the open man. Of all the quarterbacks in this draft class, he is the most realistic for the Chicago Bears.

#4: Gardner Minshew

A lot of people have already abandoned Minshew Mania. It’s true the young quarterback has limitations, but his productivity shouldn’t be discounted. In 23 games he has 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He is a fiery competitor and throws solid, accurate balls. The Bears coaching staff has ties to him. John DeFilippo was his offensive coordinator in 2019. There is also the price to consider. With Trevor Lawrence bound for Jacksonville, he won’t likely cost much to trade for and his rookie contract still has two years left. Last but not least? Nagy was reportedly a fan of his before the draft.

#3: Nick Foles

This is the one scenario people don’t want but can’t help believe is inevitable. Rather than waste resources trying to find a new quarterback, the Bears resign themselves to giving it one more go with Foles. This time with a full offseason to prepare and hopefully better protection up front as well as weapons around him. There are ways to dress it up and make it sound fine, but entering next season with Foles as the starter would be an admission of defeat by Pace and Nagy. Yet there is no ignoring the possibility. Like it or not, he’s on the roster, inexpensive, and knows the offense.

#2: Carson Wentz

No quarterback is more connected to the Chicago Bears this offseason thus far than Wentz. The Philadelphia Eagles appear ready to move on from the former Pro Bowler. He’s still just 28-year old and was playing good football as recently as 2019. Things just seemed to fall apart last season for a number of reasons. Some of his own doing and some not. He has ties to the Bears through DeFilippo. Pace was also reportedly a big fan back in the 2016 draft. It isn’t hard seeing Chicago making that move. There are just a few issues. Namely the questions of his coachability as well as his massive contract ($34 million cap hit in 2021).

#1: Sam Darnold

It wasn’t an easy conclusion to reach, but several things about Darnold make a ton of sense for the Bears. He’s only 23-years old to start with. Really young for a guy with three years of experience. His talent is well-established. Big, mobile, and boasting a live arm that can make any throw. He still has another cheap year left on his rookie contract, which would give Pace flexibility to maintain the roster as it stands (for the most part). He also has a relationship with Jets GM Joe Douglas. The two worked together for two offseasons in 2015 and 2016. Chicago might be able to get him without giving up a 1st round pick.

Everything about the idea makes sense. Darnold has obvious question marks. His 2020 season was ugly. That said, his talent, age, and contract all seem like worthwhile risks. Especially if they can put a solid offensive line in front of him.