Here’s the thing. Finding a quarterback is hard. Really hard. No team knows this better than the Chicago Bears. They’ve been trying to find one for the past 70 years. Sure Jim McMahon had his moments and Jay Cutler almost got there but let’s be honest. Neither of them lived up to their potential. Meanwhile, most of us had to watch Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre do exactly that in Green Bay forever.

The 2021 offseason is where it will all begin again. Whether Ryan Pace stays or goes. Whether Matt Nagy stays or goes. It doesn’t matter. The Bears will be hunting for a quarterback. Mitch Trubisky is a free agent. Nick Foles had his chance and blew it. They desperately need fresh blood at the position. The problem is it won’t be easy to determine who they should go after.

Sometimes in those situations, it might be best to weigh the risks. Which one has the highest likelihood of failing? Many call it bust factor. Here are the five names most connected to the Bears either via the draft or trade markets. Let us see which one has the highest risk of being a bust.

Most likely long-term Chicago Bears QB options next spring

#5 – Kyle Trask (Florida)

It’s crazy to think how fast Trask has risen up boards. Keep in mind he was a backup most of last year at Florida. For him to go from that to Heisman contender in the space of just over one season? Pretty impressive. The numbers he’s been putting up are even more so. Between 2019 and 2020, Trask has a ridiculous 63 touchdown passes to just 10 interceptions. He is a machine that just isn’t stopping.

What makes it even crazier is he’s doing it against the best competition there is. The SEC is considered the cream of the crop. So for him to slice and dice it with such ease can’t be ignored. That is why confidence in him having a productive NFL career is high. Yes, his arm isn’t elite in any sense but he’s got a 6’5 frame, moves well enough, and throws with consistently good accuracy. He may never be a superstar but he should be a competent starter at least.

#4 – Zach Wilson (BYU)

It’s been a long time since BYU was considered a hot spot for quarterbacks. Not since the 1980s when Jim McMahon (Chicago Bears!) and Steve Young went through. Now it appears Wilson has finally brought respectability back to that program. He’s been tremendous this year, completing 73% of his passes for just shy of 3,000 yards with 27 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He’s also run for 246 more yards and eight touchdowns.

The guy is a dual-threat in every sense of the word. His passes have plenty of zip along with sharp accuracy and a lightning-quick release. The concern holding people back is the competition. He hasn’t really played any program of note this season and the last time he did against Utah last year? It didn’t go well. So there are questions of whether he’s been feasting on cupcake opponents.

#3 – Sam Darnold (New York Jets)

Having prior NFL experience isn’t a bad thing. That is something Darnold can boast over anybody in the upcoming draft. He’ll have gone through three seasons in New York by the end of this year and still be just 23-years old. There are reasons to think he still has plenty to offer despite how poorly things have gone with the Jets. He’s athletic, a terrific team guy, and boasts a great arm that can deliver some truly WOW throws.

The concern for many is whether the Jets have broken him beyond repair. He hasn’t played with the same confidence or swagger he did at USC. He openly admitted to sometimes seeing ghosts on the field and the guy has also taken a beating behind bad protection. Most guys who endure this kind of experience rarely recover to become what they should be. Chicago has never been able to maximize quarterbacks they’ve traded for in the past as well.

#2 – Mac Jones (Alabama)

Nobody can deny that Jones is playing peak-level football for the Crimson Tide. Anytime a player is ripping up the best conference in the land, it’s worth taking notice. So far in 2020, he has 27 touchdowns with just three interceptions. Nothing seems to rattle him and he throws with such good anticipation and accuracy. He is quite poised.

So what’s the problem. Well to begin with he isn’t overly experienced. He started two games in 2019 and just 10 so far this season. That’s 12 total starts in college. Given how much people value experience after the Trubisky debacle, that is something that can’t be ignored. Also, he’s not a picture of supreme ability with a fairly average build, average athleticism, and average arm strength. Can he be the same player when no longer surrounded by elite talent at Alabama?

#1 – Trey Lance (North Dakota State)

When it comes to pure talent, Lance should sit among the top names in this draft class. The problem is it’s never that simple. A lot of things really worked against him this year. Much of it is the pandemic. He was supposed to play a full season at North Dakota State but the FCS canceled their league play for 2020.

In the end, he was only able to play one more game months ago and now must look to the draft. His college career will have completed after just 17 starts and 318 total passes thrown. While there is no question he was excellent for most of that time with 30 TDs and just one interception. There is a genuine concern that the lack of competition and more game reps could slow his development in the NFL.

For a team like the Chicago Bears, this is the name they probably need to avoid.