Almost everything about the Chicago Bears’ offense has been great over the past two months. Their running game is #1 in the NFL, running over opponents with devastating force. Their pass protection has also drastically improved, on pace to give up fewer than half of the 68 sacks from last year. Only one concern persists. That is Caleb Williams’ accuracy problems. Through 12 games, the young quarterback is completing only 58% of his passes. That is even worse than the 62% from his rookie season. Too many passes have sailed out of reach for his receivers.
Some are starting to wonder if Williams may not have what it takes to play in a more precision-based offense like Ben Johnson’s. However, Ted Nguyen isn’t concerned. The Athletic analyst is one of the more respected quarterback experts in the field, studying the position extensively. He’s been evaluating Williams for weeks. It may surprise you to learn that he isn’t as bothered by the supposed accuracy problems as others are.
He has concrete reasons for it.
The Bears are eighth in explosive pass rate, but they haven’t been efficient and Caleb Williams leads the league in off-target passes.
Despite the alarming off-target rate, Williams is not a naturally inaccurate passer. I’d bet that when the Bears are doing drills in which the quarterback has to hit a small net, Williams can get the ball in the net at a high rate from any distance. He has strong mechanics and is a natural thrower of the ball. I believe what is happening is his head is swimming a bit while trying to become an anticipatory passer, and his footwork isn’t as clean as it needs to be…
…When throwing with anticipation, Williams isn’t throwing to a stationary target. He has to essentially imagine where his receiver will end up and throw the ball there, and that’s a skill he’s developing. There will be less guesswork with more reps in this offense and time with his receivers.
Caleb Williams is going through what many young QBs do these days.
You must understand that the vast majority who come out of college have no idea what a timing-based offense is. They come from college systems built around getting the football to the most talented players and letting them make plays. Not many programs employ schemes that can be considered pro-style. Quarterbacks are rarely asked to throw with anticipation. Just look for the open man and hit him. That was Caleb Williams’ responsibility at both Oklahoma and USC. What Johnson is putting him through now is basically going from algebra to nuclear physics.
Williams has been so preoccupied with getting down the verbiage and layers of the offense that he hasn’t been able to spare time working on his mechanics. Combine that with the inconsistent play of his receivers, and you get the low completion percentage they’ve been dealing with for the past two months.
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