Thursday, March 28, 2024

Numbers Show Justin Fields’ Supporting Cast Even Worse Than Expected

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Justin Fields has heard lots of criticism this season from experts and fans alike. They feel he has been a disappointment and isn’t playing as well as he should. At least not considering he is the 11th overall pick. Is that fair? Maybe. This is the life of being a quarterback. There is no greater heat position from a public standpoint short of head coach. When you don’t perform up to a certain standard, you get criticized.

Fields understands that and to his credit has done nothing to shift blame towards anybody else. Still, the young quarterback has his share of defenders too. Many people have sworn up and down that it is virtually impossible for the rookie to play well when he isn’t getting any help from the situation around him. Not just the coach deficiencies of Matt Nagy mind you. The actual on-field product as well. It isn’t good.

How bad is it though?

If watching the actual games hasn’t provided an idea, some people prefer to have it served to them in statistical form. Arjun Menon of Pro Football Focus was happy to oblige with a creative new scoring system. One that combines two key offensive stats. Wide receiver Open Rate and Pass Block Win Rate. In other words how often receivers are open and how often the offensive linemen are winning their blocks.

The final data was certainly telling. Names at the top weren’t all that surprising. Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers. Most interesting in that group had to be Mac Jones, the New England Patriots rookie who is having a solid season for them. So where is Fields? All the way down at 28th.

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Based on the numbers, the core of the issue for the Bears is their receivers failing to get open. That 0.55 mark was the worst among all teams in the league by a significant margin. This is undoubtedly a big reason why his completion percentage is low and the number of hits he has taken is high.

Justin Fields can’t be a miracle worker at this stage

No rookie can. That isn’t how it works in the NFL. It is the job of the Bears coaching staff to put him in the best position possible for success. Nagy and his staff have not done that. Too often they don’t adjust the scheme to fit his strengths, instead opting to run a class spread system where the QB sits in shotgun and has to read where to go with the ball. That isn’t something Fields is particularly good at yet.

This approach is exacerbated further by an offensive line that features a 39-year old left tackle and a rookie 5th round right tackle. Not an ideal combo against top NFL pass rushers. On top of everything else, the wide receivers can’t get open. Darnell Mooney seems to be the only one who can do so with any consistency. Even Allen Robinson is struggling. Is this due to talent or the Bears’ system not being able to scheme them open more often?

Probably a mixture of both.

Translation? This organization has a lot of work to do in 2022. Not only do they need to find a coaching staff that can get Justin Fields into a proper system. They also must fortify his protection and add more firepower. A long list. Can they achieve it in one offseason? That will be the goal. Whether GM Ryan Pace is the one making the attempt remains to be determined.

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