Justin Fields has started 16 games between 2021 and 2022. The results thus far haven’t been what anybody would call good. He’s completed 57.84% of his passes for 2,669 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. That works out to a 74.5 passer rating. Chicago Bears fans are left wondering if their team once again whiffed at the quarterback position. Is there any possibility that Fields might pull himself out of this dangerous trajectory to achieve NFL success?
I thought about how best to go about answering this question. No football stat is perfect for determining whether a QB will sink or swim. However, one that consistently stood out during my research was completion percentage. In the modern era, most would agree that any quarterback with a 60% or above completion rate is decent. Those that fall in the 50s range have significant issues with strings successful throws together due to accuracy, decision-making, or all the above.
Curious, I decided to review every 1st round quarterback since 2000.
That covers an extensive enough group to offer reliable data. Also, 1st rounders are universally expected to become starters in the NFL. That isn’t always the case with 2nd or 3rd rounders. With the parameters set, I went in with a simple mission: determine which QBs went their first two seasons with a completion percentage below 60. Of the 61 who have played at least two years, 20 qualified for this list. Suffice it to say it isn’t an encouraging group.
- Michael Vick*
- Patrick Ramsey
- Joey Harrington
- David Carr
- Rex Grossman
- Kyle Boller
- Eli Manning*
- Alex Smith*
- Matt Leinart
- Brady Quinn
- JaMarcus Russell
- Mark Sanchez
- Tim Tebow
- Blaine Gabbert
- Brandon Weeden
- E.J. Manuel
- Johnny Manziel
- Blake Bortles
- Josh Rosen
- Josh Allen*
Of those listed, only four ended up having significant success in their careers. The rest were below-averaged starters, career backups, or outright busts.
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Justin Fields lacks a major advantage the four exceptions had.
Several factors went into them overcoming the early doubts about their future success. Let’s go through each one and determine how it came about.
Michael Vick – Overcame a 53.9% completion rate through his first two years starting thanks to being the most dynamic running QB the NFL had ever seen. He ran for 1,934 yards between 2002 and 2004. Defenses had no answer for him in those days.
Eli Manning – He didn’t crack 60% until his fifth season. He overcame this by generating 12.4 yards per completion in those first two years, throwing 24 TDs in his second season, and playing under the same regime that drafted him. Making the playoffs in his second year also helped a lot.
Alex Smith – Sympathy played a big part in this. Smith had five different offensive coordinators in five years. That and San Francisco’s inability to find a suitable replacement allowed him to survive until his fifth year when he finally started playing better. Like Manning, it helped that the franchise kept coaches in charge that helped draft him.
Josh Allen – Completion percentage didn’t matter much to Allen when he had a rocket launcher for a right arm. His passer rating was far better in his second year, and the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs at 10-6.
That puts everything in perspective.
Justin Fields has several problems working against him. His team is 2-4. Their prospects of making the playoffs are remote. He’s currently on track to throw 11-12 touchdowns. Worse still, the regime that drafted him was fired after last season. So that safety net is gone too. The one hope he has is to follow the Vick mold. Fields is an elite athlete. His speed makes him a constant danger on the ground. Right now, he’s on pace for 800 yards rushing. If he could keep that up and maybe add some touchdowns, it might be enough to buy time until the passing issues get figured out.
Click bait. Oh lets worry about our QB’s struggles and whether we should get another one because this one is defective. Meanwhile we are gonna talk about the rebuilding team and not take into account that the receivers aren’t even remotely close to being open and he seemingly is really trying to throw it first before running would account for him holding the ball too long. If he ran to quickly he’d be getting blasted for that as well. This is no better than any other Chicago news outlet at all.
Id roll with Fields next year…like Jim B and Kevin said surrounded by the worst cast and then you look around and a lot of qbs are having a rough year with way better talent around them. Id say lets atleast make the cast better this off season…then, ifs still an issue after next year, find a replacement. I came in this year knowing we had the worst talent in the nfl. Its a rebuild any qb would be struggling with our oline and pass catchers.
Ryan Pace drafted two QBs in first round. Both times he said all the
Bears had to do was tweak their throwing motions and get them used to throwing from the pocket. At NC Trubisky completed 572 passes for 9 yard avg and 158 rating. At OSU Fields completed 396 passes for 9.3 avg and a 179 rating. Both were considered locks for first round. Thats a lot like saying I’m going I’m going to buy a $240,000 Lamborghini and all I need to do is change the engine and it will be perfect. Doesn’t make sense
If he was surrounded by elite playmakers aka Miami or Denver, he would still be a bust. Are you telling me he’s better than wilson? That’s a big N O
This article is nonsense. I’m seeing bad QB play all over the NFL right now with the exception of maybe 3. Rodgers, Brady, Jackson, Wilson, Carr all have way better front lines than Chicago, when when they break down these guys look bad. I’ll leave it at that