There seems to be a great deal of confidence among national experts that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will stroll into Soldier Field on Sunday night and smother the Chicago Bears. Much of this stems from the recent success of Tampa’s defense, which ranks 3rd overall and 5th in points allowed. They are #1 in the NFL against the run. That doesn’t bode well for the Bears, who are a running team. If they can’t do that, it will expose Caleb Williams to Todd Bowles’ notorious blitz packages, leaving Chicago helpless.
Now, there is no question the Buccaneers have played much better football lately. After losing four in a row to start the season, they’ve won three of their last four games to climb back into the NFC South race. However, it feels like these assessments from experts might be coming from, let’s say, outdated information. Yes, Williams didn’t struggle against the blitz at one point in his career.
That has not been the case in 2026. At all.
Since returning from his injury, the Bears’ quarterback has been blitzed 52 times over three games. He has gone 32-of-48 for 387 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a 105.12 passer rating.
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Blitzes aren’t a magical fix against the Chicago Bears.
Head coach Ben Johnson studies vast amounts of film. He will have a pretty good idea of where and when Bowles will throw his extra attacker. He will almost certainly have counters for them. The trick to unsettling Williams is getting home with your regular four pass rushers, forcing him to throw into tight coverage. That presents a major problem for the Buccaneers. Their four primary starters up front have 5 combined sacks in 8 games. The one with the most, Yaya Diaby (3), is out this week with an injury.
That puts more pressure on David Walker and Rueben Bain, both rookies, to pick up the slack. They’re going against an offensive line that is playing some of its best football lately. After turning aside a really good Patriots front two weeks ago, they steamrolled the defending champions in Seattle. Getting past them with four is a tall order, which will almost force Bowles to blitz consistently. This, in turn, will leave the secondary exposed to a talented array of weapons headlined by Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland.
None of this is to say the Bucs can’t win.
They absolutely can. They run the ball as well as anybody in the league. Baker Mayfield is still a good quarterback despite some recent setbacks. If their defense can keep the Chicago Bears under 30, that should open the door for an upset. One overlooked factor is that the Bears have a pretty good defense too. They’re quietly 3rd in the NFL against the run and 8th in points allowed. They just added Jeffery Simmons, who is sure to give their interior blockers problems. People shouldn’t be dismissing them.
All this is to say that people need to stop treating this as a trap game. The Bears have no opponent looming next week that they are worried about. It’s a bye. If anything, that will make them more focused going into this one, knowing a win will provide all sorts of momentum. Let’s also not forget the Bears are 23-6 all time at home against Tampa Bay. Home field feels like it matters in this one.
